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M\u00eb shum\u00eb se gjysma e basteve me gjasa t\u00eb vogla p\u00ebr aksione ushtarake t\u00eb b\u00ebra n\u00eb Polymarket jan\u00eb t\u00eb suksesshme, sipas nj\u00eb raporti t\u00eb ri q\u00eb sugjeron se tregjet e parashikimeve mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrb\u00ebjn\u00eb nj\u00eb k\u00ebrc\u00ebnim m\u00eb t\u00eb madh se sa njihej m\u00eb par\u00eb p\u00ebr sigurin\u00eb e informacionit t\u00eb ndjesh\u00ebm.<\/span><\/p>\n Analiza nga Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC), nj\u00eb grup k\u00ebrkimor dhe avokues jofitimprur\u00ebs, zbuloi se bastet me gjasa t\u00eb vogla – t\u00eb p\u00ebrcaktuara si v\u00ebrtetime prej 2,500 dollar\u00ebsh ose m\u00eb shum\u00eb me koeficient\u00eb suksesi prej 35 p\u00ebr qind ose m\u00eb pak – n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb platform\u00eb kishin nj\u00eb shkall\u00eb mesatare fitimi prej rreth 52 p\u00ebr qind n\u00eb tregjet mbi aksionet ushtarake dhe t\u00eb mbrojtjes.<\/span><\/p>\n Kjo krahasohet me nj\u00eb shkall\u00eb fitimi prej 25 p\u00ebr qind n\u00eb t\u00eb gjitha tregjet e fokusuara te politika dhe vet\u00ebm 14 p\u00ebr qind p\u00ebr t\u00eb gjitha tregjet n\u00eb platform\u00eb si t\u00ebr\u00ebsi.<\/span><\/p>\n K\u00ebrkimi ka t\u00eb ngjar\u00eb t\u00eb shtohet n\u00eb shqet\u00ebsimet n\u00eb rritje midis rregullator\u00ebve dhe ligjv\u00ebn\u00ebsve rreth personave t\u00eb brendsh\u00ebm q\u00eb vendosin baste mbi koh\u00ebn dhe suksesin e aksioneve ushtarake, mes frik\u00ebs se kjo mund t\u00eb zbuloj\u00eb informacione t\u00eb klasifikuara p\u00ebrpara kohe.<\/span><\/p>\n Raporti, i cili analizoi m\u00eb shum\u00eb se 400,000 tregje parashikimesh t\u00eb mbyllura n\u00eb Polymarket midis janarit 2021 dhe marsit 2026, vjen n\u00eb nj\u00eb koh\u00eb kur prokuror\u00ebt e SHBA-s\u00eb jav\u00ebn e kaluar akuzuan nj\u00eb ushtar t\u00eb p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb n\u00eb planifikimin e bastisjes s\u00eb janarit p\u00ebr kapjen e liderit venezuelian Nicol\u00e1s Maduro, p\u00ebr vendosjen e basteve n\u00eb Polymarket mbi k\u00ebt\u00eb mision q\u00eb i siguruan atij m\u00eb shum\u00eb se 400,000 dollar\u00eb.<\/span><\/p>\n Gannon Ken Van Dyke, nj\u00eb ushtar n\u00eb sh\u00ebrbim aktiv, pretendohet se ka v\u00ebn\u00eb rreth 13 baste me vler\u00eb 33,034 dollar\u00eb n\u00eb pozicione p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb \u201cForcat e SHBA n\u00eb Venezuel\u00eb\u201d dhe \u201cMaduro jasht\u00eb\u201d nd\u00ebrsa kishte n\u00eb zot\u00ebrim informacione t\u00eb klasifikuara. T\u00eb mart\u00ebn, Van Dyke u deklarua i pafajsh\u00ebm.<\/span><\/p>\n K\u00ebto akuza p\u00ebrfaq\u00ebsojn\u00eb ndjekjen e par\u00eb penale n\u00eb SHBA p\u00ebr tregtim me informacione t\u00eb brendshme n\u00eb tregjet e parashikimeve. N\u00eb fillim t\u00eb k\u00ebtij viti, Izraeli ngriti akuza kund\u00ebr nj\u00eb rezervisti dhe nj\u00eb civili t\u00eb akuzuar p\u00ebr p\u00ebrdorimin e informacioneve t\u00eb klasifikuara p\u00ebr t\u00eb v\u00ebn\u00eb baste mbi operacionet ushtarake t\u00eb vendit n\u00eb Polymarket.<\/span><\/p>\n Tregjet politike ku rezultatet mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrcaktohen nga grupe t\u00eb vogla vendimmarr\u00ebse, ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht tregjet ushtarake dhe t\u00eb mbrojtjes, jan\u00eb \u201cstrukturalisht t\u00eb ndjeshme ndaj tregtimit me informacione t\u00eb brendshme\u201d, tha ACDC, duke shtuar se kjo dinamik\u00eb jo vet\u00ebm q\u00eb k\u00ebrc\u00ebnon sigurin\u00eb e informacionit, por gjithashtu \u201cdisavantazhon bastv\u00ebn\u00ebsit e rregullt\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n Yassamin Ansari, nj\u00eb ligjv\u00ebn\u00ebse demokrate nga Arizona, i ka quajtur bastet mbi aksionet ushtarake \u201cnj\u00eb rrezik shqet\u00ebsues p\u00ebr sigurin\u00eb komb\u00ebtare\u201d, nd\u00ebrsa Ritchie Torres, nj\u00eb p\u00ebrfaq\u00ebsues demokrat nga Nju Jorku, ka th\u00ebn\u00eb se tregjet mbi vendimet politike dhe ushtarake rrezikojn\u00eb t\u00eb krijojn\u00eb \u201cnj\u00eb stimul pervers\u201d p\u00ebr personat e brendsh\u00ebm qeveritar\u00eb q\u00eb \u201ct\u00eb shtyjn\u00eb personalisht politika q\u00eb mbushin xhepat e tyre\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n Raporti gjeti gjithashtu se tregjet mbi ngjarjet kulturore, si fituesit e konkurseve apo publikimet muzikore, kishin gjasa n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb disproporcionale t\u00eb mbanin baste t\u00eb dyshimta, me 29 p\u00ebr qind t\u00eb basteve \u201clong-shot\u201d n\u00eb k\u00ebto tregje q\u00eb rezultonin t\u00eb suksesshme.<\/span><\/p>\n Organizator\u00ebt e \u00c7mimit Nobel p\u00ebr Paqe hetuan nj\u00eb rrjedhje t\u00eb mundshme vitin e kaluar pasi bastet n\u00eb internet u rrit\u00ebn n\u00eb favor t\u00eb lideres s\u00eb opozit\u00ebs venezueliane Mar\u00eda Corina Machado vet\u00ebm pak or\u00eb para se ajo t\u00eb shpallej fituese.<\/span><\/p>\n Ka pasur gjithashtu shqet\u00ebsime p\u00ebr manipulimin e tregut. Sh\u00ebrbimi i parashikimit t\u00eb motit n\u00eb Franc\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb muaj depozitoi nj\u00eb ankes\u00eb n\u00eb polici pasi zbuloi anomali n\u00eb mat\u00ebsit e tij t\u00eb temperatur\u00ebs n\u00eb Paris, t\u00eb cilat p\u00ebrkuan me nj\u00eb rritje t\u00eb basteve n\u00eb Polymarket.<\/span><\/p>\n Disa nga tregjet ushtarake dhe politike t\u00eb Polymarket kan\u00eb t\u00ebrhequr baste t\u00eb r\u00ebnda. Bastet n\u00ebse SHBA dhe Irani do arrijn\u00eb nj\u00eb marr\u00ebveshje t\u00eb p\u00ebrhershme paqeje kan\u00eb par\u00eb v\u00ebllim tregtimi prej 63 milion\u00eb dollar\u00ebsh, nd\u00ebrsa nj\u00eb bast n\u00ebse Kina do pushtoj\u00eb Tajvanin n\u00eb vitin 2026 t\u00ebrhoqi 23 milion\u00eb dollar\u00eb. Por bastet sportive vazhdojn\u00eb t\u00eb dominojn\u00eb platform\u00ebn, me v\u00ebllimin e tregtimit mbi at\u00eb se cili ekip do t\u00eb b\u00ebhej kampion i Super Bowl n\u00eb fillim t\u00eb k\u00ebtij viti q\u00eb tejkaloi 700 milion\u00eb dollar\u00ebt.<\/span><\/p>\n Polymarket refuzoi t\u00eb komentonte mbi raportin. Kompania ka th\u00ebn\u00eb m\u00eb par\u00eb se ndalon tregtimin me informacione konfidenciale t\u00eb vjedhura ose nga ata q\u00eb mund t\u00eb ndikojn\u00eb n\u00eb rezultat.<\/span><\/p>\n N\u00eb nj\u00eb postim n\u00eb X jav\u00ebn e kaluar, Polymarket tha se arrestimi i Van Dyke ishte \u201cprov\u00eb q\u00eb sistemi funksionon\u201d. Kompania tha se kur identifikonte \u201cnj\u00eb p\u00ebrdorues q\u00eb tregtonte me informacione t\u00eb klasifikuara qeveritare\u201d, ia referonte \u00e7\u00ebshtjen Departamentit t\u00eb Drejt\u00ebsis\u00eb t\u00eb SHBA dhe bashk\u00ebpunonte me hetimin e tyre.<\/span><\/p>\n Mes kontrollit t\u00eb shtuar mbi dyshimet p\u00ebr tregtim me informacione t\u00eb brendshme, platformat e tregjeve t\u00eb parashikimeve jan\u00eb p\u00ebrpjekur t\u00eb sigurojn\u00eb klient\u00ebt dhe ligjv\u00ebn\u00ebsit se po godasin manipulimin e tregut.<\/span><\/p>\n Kalshi, rivali kryesor i Polymarket, ka promovuar fuqish\u00ebm p\u00ebrpjekjet e veta, duke p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb nj\u00eb partneritet me kompanin\u00eb e mbik\u00ebqyrjes s\u00eb tregut Solidus Labs, nd\u00ebrsa k\u00ebrkon t\u00eb distancohet nga Polymarket dhe t\u00eb theksoj\u00eb kredencialet e veta si platforma m\u00eb e madhe e rregulluar n\u00eb SHBA.<\/span><\/p>\n Kalshi ndalon ato q\u00eb i quan \u201ctregje t\u00eb dhunshme, p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb luft\u00ebn dhe rr\u00ebmbimin\u201d \u2014 megjith\u00ebse lejon tregjet mbi mbylljen e Ngushtic\u00ebs s\u00eb Hormuzit \u2014 duke th\u00ebn\u00eb se tregjet \u201cnuk duhet t\u00eb stimulojn\u00eb d\u00ebmin\u201d, nd\u00ebrsa k\u00ebrkon gjithashtu v\u00ebrtetim t\u00eb identitetit. N\u00eb t\u00eb kund\u00ebrt, Polymarket nuk k\u00ebrkon nga shumica e p\u00ebrdoruesve t\u00eb faqes s\u00eb saj nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare t\u00eb japin d\u00ebshmi t\u00eb identitetit dhe lejon pagesat duke p\u00ebrdorur kanale anonime kriptomonedhash.<\/span><\/p>\n Kontrolli n\u00eb rritje ka krijuar nj\u00eb mund\u00ebsi biznesi p\u00ebr nj\u00eb val\u00eb startup-esh q\u00eb shesin mjete p\u00ebr t\u00eb ndihmuar p\u00ebrdoruesit t\u00eb p\u00ebrfitojn\u00eb duke kopjuar \u201ct\u00eb brendshmit\u201d e dyshuar.<\/span><\/p>\n \u201cPlatformat po krijojn\u00eb rregulla t\u00eb reja p\u00ebr t\u00eb provuar t\u2019i \u00e7rr\u00ebnjosin ata… Kjo p\u00ebr mua provon se ka nj\u00eb rrjedh\u00eb t\u00eb informuar n\u00eb k\u00ebto tregje q\u00eb ia vlen t\u00eb ndiqet,\u201d<\/em> tha Matt Saincome, shefi ekzekutiv i Unusual Whales, i cili shet nj\u00eb mjet \u201cparashikimesh t\u00eb pazakonta\u201d p\u00ebr 20 dollar\u00eb n\u00eb muaj p\u00ebr t\u00eb monitoruar bastet e dyshimta n\u00eb Polymarket.<\/span><\/p>\n Nj\u00eb tjet\u00ebr startup, Polywhaler, premton t\u00eb ndihmoj\u00eb tregtar\u00ebt t\u00eb \u201cmonitorojn\u00eb bastet e m\u00ebdha n\u00eb koh\u00eb reale\u201d p\u00ebr 4.99 dollar\u00eb n\u00eb muaj. Polymarket vet\u00eb ka publikuar nj\u00eb list\u00eb t\u00eb 10 kuletave m\u00eb t\u00eb kopjuara n\u00eb nj\u00eb postim n\u00eb blog, duke p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb rekomandime p\u00ebr tregtar\u00ebt mbi strategjit\u00eb q\u00eb duhen ndjekur dhe rreziqet q\u00eb duhen shmangur gjat\u00eb tregtimit me kopjim.<\/span><\/p>\n Kompania dhe Kalshi kan\u00eb argumentuar prej koh\u00ebsh se platformat e tyre shfryt\u00ebzojn\u00eb njohurin\u00eb kolektive p\u00ebr t\u00eb parashikuar ngjarjet me sakt\u00ebsi. Por nj\u00eb studim tjet\u00ebr i fundit ka zbuluar se tregjet e parashikimeve pasqyrojn\u00eb \u201cnjohurit\u00eb e nj\u00eb pakice t\u00eb informuar\u201d dhe jo \u201cnjohurit\u00eb e turm\u00ebs\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n Vet\u00ebm 3 p\u00ebr qind e t\u00eb gjitha llogarive prodhojn\u00eb pjes\u00ebn m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe t\u00eb zbulimit t\u00eb \u00e7mimeve, sipas nj\u00eb studimi t\u00eb udh\u00ebhequr nga Roberto G\u00f3mez Cram, asistent profesor i financ\u00ebs n\u00eb London School of Economics. K\u00ebta jan\u00eb tregtar\u00eb llogarit\u00eb e t\u00eb cil\u00ebve parashikojn\u00eb \u00e7mimet dhe reagojn\u00eb shpejt ndaj lajmeve t\u00eb fundit. T\u00eb tjer\u00ebt nuk \u201cprodhojn\u00eb njohuri\u201d, tha studimi, dhe p\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb arsye kan\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb gjasa t\u00eb humbasin para, duke financuar k\u00ebshtu tregtar\u00ebt e aft\u00eb.<\/span><\/p>\n