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Rusia po fiton deri n\u00eb 150 milion\u00eb dollar\u00eb n\u00eb dit\u00eb t\u00eb ardhura shtes\u00eb n\u00eb buxhet nga shitja e naft\u00ebs, duke u b\u00ebr\u00eb p\u00ebrfituesja m\u00eb e madhe nga konflikti n\u00eb Lindja e Mesme.<\/span><\/p>\n Moska deri tani ka p\u00ebrfituar nj\u00eb fitim t\u00eb papritur t\u00eb vler\u00ebsuar midis 1.3 dhe 1.9 miliard\u00eb dollar\u00eb nga taksat mbi eksportet e naft\u00ebs, pasi mbyllja efektive e Ngushtic\u00ebs s\u00eb Hormuzit rriti k\u00ebrkes\u00ebn p\u00ebr naft\u00ebn ruse nga India dhe Kin\u00eb. Nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb, Shtetet e Bashkuara t\u00eb Amerik\u00ebs gjithashtu leht\u00ebsuan sanksionet ndaj Rusis\u00eb dhe presionin ndaj Indis\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb mos bler\u00eb naft\u00eb ruse, gj\u00eb q\u00eb b\u00ebri q\u00eb nj\u00eb num\u00ebr i konsideruesh\u00ebm tanker\u00ebsh t\u00eb drejtohen drejt Oqeanit Indian.<\/span><\/p>\n Qeveria ruse mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrfitoj\u00eb 3.3 deri n\u00eb 4.9 miliard\u00eb dollar\u00eb t\u00eb ardhura shtes\u00eb deri n\u00eb fund t\u00eb marsit, sipas llogaritjeve t\u00eb Financial Times bazuar n\u00eb t\u00eb dh\u00ebnat e industris\u00eb dhe vler\u00ebsimet e disa analist\u00ebve. Kjo supozon q\u00eb \u00e7mimi i naft\u00ebs ruse Urals t\u00eb jet\u00eb mesatarisht 70-80 dollar\u00eb p\u00ebr fu\u00e7i k\u00ebt\u00eb muaj, n\u00eb vend q\u00eb t\u00eb mbetet pran\u00eb mesatares s\u00eb dy muajve t\u00eb m\u00ebparsh\u00ebm prej 52 dollar\u00eb p\u00ebr fu\u00e7i.<\/span><\/p>\n Kjo p\u00ebrb\u00ebn nj\u00eb kthes\u00eb t\u00eb fort\u00eb p\u00ebr Mosk\u00ebn, e cila para luft\u00ebs me Iranin po p\u00ebrballej me r\u00ebnien e \u00e7mimeve t\u00eb naft\u00ebs dhe me humbjen e shumic\u00ebs s\u00eb shitjeve n\u00eb Indi, kryesisht p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb presionit nga Uashingtoni.<\/span><\/p>\n Eksportet ruse t\u00eb naft\u00ebs dhe produkteve t\u00eb naft\u00ebs ran\u00eb 11.4 p\u00ebr qind, n\u00eb 6.6 milion\u00eb fu\u00e7i n\u00eb dit\u00eb n\u00eb shkurt \u2014 niveli m\u00eb i ul\u00ebt q\u00eb nga pushtimi i Ukrain\u00eb n\u00eb vitin 2022 \u2014 sipas nj\u00eb raporti t\u00eb publikuar t\u00eb enjten nga Agjencia Nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare e Energjis\u00eb.<\/span><\/p>\n Shum\u00eb\u00e7ka tani varet nga sa do t\u00eb zgjas\u00eb konflikti n\u00eb Lindjen e Mesme, por \u00e7mimet e larta aktuale \u201cdo ta ndihmojn\u00eb Rusin\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrmbush\u00eb treguesit e buxhetit k\u00ebt\u00eb tremujor dhe madje t\u00eb filloj\u00eb t\u00eb kursej\u00eb disa para\u201d, tha Borys Dodonov, drejtues i studimeve p\u00ebr energjin\u00eb dhe klim\u00ebn n\u00eb Shkolla e Ekonomis\u00eb e Kievit.<\/span><\/p>\n Lufta me Iranin i jep Rusis\u00eb nj\u00eb mund\u00ebsi p\u00ebr t\u00eb forcuar kontrollin mbi tregjet e energjis\u00eb, n\u00eb d\u00ebm t\u00eb shteteve t\u00eb Gjirit q\u00eb nuk mund t\u00eb eksportojn\u00eb produktet e tyre.<\/span><\/p>\n Moska shpreson ta shfryt\u00ebzoj\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb moment. Presidenti rus Vladimir Putin tha t\u00eb h\u00ebn\u00ebn se tregjet e energjis\u00eb po l\u00ebvizin drejt \u201cnj\u00eb realiteti t\u00eb ri \u00e7mimesh\u201d dhe hodhi iden\u00eb e rifillimit t\u00eb eksporteve energjetike drejt Evrop\u00eb.<\/span><\/p>\n Disa or\u00eb m\u00eb von\u00eb, Kremlini njoftoi p\u00ebr nj\u00eb \u201cbised\u00eb shum\u00eb produktive\u201d mes Putinit dhe presidentit amerikan Donald Trump, i cili m\u00eb pas p\u00ebrmendi mund\u00ebsin\u00eb e \u201cheqjes s\u00eb sanksioneve\u201d ndaj disa vendeve t\u00eb paidentifikuara p\u00ebr t\u00eb ulur \u00e7mimet \u201cderisa situata t\u00eb stabilizohet\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n Situata ka shkaktuar alarm mes aleat\u00ebve t\u00eb SHBA-s\u00eb. Nj\u00eb studim nga nj\u00eb kompani e madhe energjetike paralajm\u00ebroi se qeverit\u00eb evropiane mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrballen me presion p\u00ebr t\u00eb shtyr\u00eb ndalimin e planifikuar t\u00eb importit t\u00eb gazit natyror t\u00eb l\u00ebngsh\u00ebm rus (LNG) n\u00ebse nd\u00ebrprerjet e furnizimit nga Lindja e Mesme vazhdojn\u00eb, duke zhb\u00ebr\u00eb vite p\u00ebrpjekjesh p\u00ebr t\u00eb izoluar Mosk\u00ebn.<\/span><\/p>\n Studimi rekomandoi gjithashtu q\u00eb shtetet e Gjirit t\u00eb veprojn\u00eb shpejt p\u00ebr t\u00eb marr\u00eb nj\u00eb rol udh\u00ebheq\u00ebs n\u00eb uljen e tensioneve dhe p\u00ebr t\u00eb mbrojtur pjes\u00ebn e tyre t\u00eb tregut n\u00eb Evrop\u00eb.<\/span><\/p>\n T\u00eb dh\u00ebnat e ndjekjes s\u00eb d\u00ebrgesave nga kompania analitike Kpler treguan se nj\u00eb \u201csasi e konsiderueshme\u201d ngarkesash me naft\u00eb ruse ndodhet aktualisht n\u00eb det, shum\u00eb prej tyre duke l\u00ebvizur n\u00ebp\u00ebr Oqeanin Indian drejt porteve indiane.<\/span><\/p>\n Importet e Indis\u00eb t\u00eb naft\u00ebs ruse kan\u00eb arritur n\u00eb 1.5 milion\u00eb fu\u00e7i n\u00eb dit\u00eb, nj\u00eb rritje prej 50 p\u00ebr qind krahasuar me fillimin e muajit t\u00eb kaluar.<\/span><\/p>\n \u201cN\u00ebse oraret aktuale t\u00eb transportit dhe l\u00ebvizjet e ngarkesave vazhdojn\u00eb, mb\u00ebrritjet totale t\u00eb naft\u00ebs ruse gjat\u00eb gjith\u00eb muajit mund t\u00eb arrijn\u00eb af\u00ebr 2 milion\u00eb fu\u00e7i n\u00eb dit\u00eb,\u201d tha Sumit Ritolia, analist kryesor i Kpler n\u00eb Nju Delhi.<\/span><\/p>\n \u201cRusia \u00ebsht\u00eb fituesja e madhe e k\u00ebtij konflikti,\u201d shtoi ai.<\/span><\/p>\n Nd\u00ebrprerja e trafikut n\u00eb Ngushtic\u00ebn e Hormuzit ka shkaktuar kaos n\u00eb tregjet globale t\u00eb naft\u00ebs dhe gazit, duke k\u00ebrc\u00ebnuar t\u00eb largoj\u00eb nga tregu rreth 60 milion\u00eb ton\u00eb naft\u00eb bruto dhe 7 milion\u00eb ton\u00eb LNG \u00e7do muaj, sipas Vaibhav Raghunandan nga Qendra p\u00ebr K\u00ebrkime mbi Energjin\u00eb dhe Ajrin e Past\u00ebr.<\/span><\/p>\n N\u00eb p\u00ebrpjekje p\u00ebr t\u00eb kompensuar furnizimet e humbura nga Lindja e Mesme, importet e naft\u00ebs ruse nga India dhe Kina u rrit\u00ebn 22 p\u00ebr qind secila, nj\u00eb jav\u00eb pasi SHBA dhe Izraeli filluan sulmet ndaj Iranit, krahasuar me mesataren ditore t\u00eb shkurtit.<\/span><\/p>\n \u201cN\u00ebse kriza zgjat, ata do t\u00eb fillojn\u00eb t\u00eb konkurrojn\u00eb mes tyre p\u00ebr naft\u00ebn ruse,\u201d tha Sergey Vakulenko nga Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center n\u00eb Berlin.<\/span><\/p>\n Nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb, sasia e naft\u00ebs ruse t\u00eb bllokuar n\u00eb tanker\u00eb n\u00eb det ka r\u00ebn\u00eb me 11 milion\u00eb fu\u00e7i, duke arritur n\u00eb 125 milion\u00eb fu\u00e7i n\u00eb fillim t\u00eb konfliktit n\u00eb Lindjen e Mesme, sipas t\u00eb dh\u00ebnave t\u00eb Kpler.<\/span><\/p>\n Nafta ruse tani po tregtohet rreth 20-30 dollar\u00eb p\u00ebr fu\u00e7i m\u00eb shtrenjt\u00eb se mesatarja e tre muajve t\u00eb m\u00ebparsh\u00ebm. Analist\u00ebt e Kpler besojn\u00eb se ajo po shitet n\u00eb Indi me rreth 5 dollar\u00eb p\u00ebr fu\u00e7i m\u00eb shum\u00eb se nafta Brent, duke p\u00ebrmbysur zbritjet e m\u00ebparshme.<\/span><\/p>\n \u00c7do rritje prej 10 dollar\u00ebsh n\u00eb \u00e7mimin mesatar mujor p\u00ebr fu\u00e7i gjeneron rreth 2.8 miliard\u00eb dollar\u00eb t\u00eb ardhura shtes\u00eb p\u00ebr eksportuesit rus\u00eb t\u00eb naft\u00ebs, nga t\u00eb cilat shteti merr rreth 1.63 miliard\u00eb dollar\u00eb p\u00ebrmes taksave, tha Vakulenko.<\/span><\/p>\n Kjo p\u00ebrkthehet n\u00eb rreth 54 milion\u00eb dollar\u00eb t\u00eb ardhura shtes\u00eb n\u00eb dit\u00eb p\u00ebr buxhetin.<\/span><\/p>\n N\u00eb praktik\u00eb, qeveria mund t\u00eb ket\u00eb marr\u00eb 110-160 milion\u00eb dollar\u00eb shtes\u00eb n\u00eb dit\u00eb, ose 1.3-1.9 miliard\u00eb dollar\u00eb gjat\u00eb 12 dit\u00ebve t\u00eb para t\u00eb luft\u00ebs. Me k\u00ebt\u00eb rit\u00ebm, Rusia mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrfitoj\u00eb 3.3-5 miliard\u00eb dollar\u00eb shtes\u00eb gjat\u00eb gjith\u00eb muajit.<\/span><\/p>\n Megjithat\u00eb, Moska do t\u00eb ket\u00eb nevoj\u00eb q\u00eb kushtet aktuale t\u00eb tregut t\u00eb vazhdojn\u00eb edhe p\u00ebr disa muaj p\u00ebr t\u00eb kompensuar r\u00ebnien e t\u00eb ardhurave nga energjia n\u00eb fillim t\u00eb vitit.<\/span><\/p>\n T\u00eb ardhurat nga energjia \u2014 q\u00eb tani p\u00ebrfaq\u00ebsohen kryesisht nga taksa mbi nxjerrjen e mineraleve nga nafta \u2014 ran\u00eb pothuajse 50 p\u00ebr qind n\u00eb dy muajt e par\u00eb t\u00eb vitit 2026, duke e \u00e7uar deficitin buxhetor t\u00eb Rusis\u00eb n\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb se 90 p\u00ebr qind t\u00eb nivelit t\u00eb parashikuar p\u00ebr gjith\u00eb vitin.<\/span><\/p>\n P\u00ebr her\u00eb t\u00eb par\u00eb q\u00eb nga viti 2022, presioni filloi t\u00eb ndikoj\u00eb seriozisht n\u00eb buxhetin rus, duke e shtyr\u00eb Mosk\u00ebn t\u00eb shqyrtoj\u00eb shkurtime shpenzimesh prej t\u00eb pakt\u00ebn 10 p\u00ebr qind n\u00eb buxhetin e k\u00ebtij viti, sipas Reuters.<\/span><\/p>\n