{"id":730137,"date":"2025-03-15T07:33:49","date_gmt":"2025-03-15T06:33:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/?p=730137"},"modified":"2025-03-15T07:35:29","modified_gmt":"2025-03-15T06:35:29","slug":"rikthimi-i-inflacionit","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/2025\/03\/15\/rikthimi-i-inflacionit\/","title":{"rendered":"Rikthimi i inflacionit: A po rrezikon bota t\u00eb p\u00ebrs\u00ebris\u00eb gabimet e viteve 1970?","gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"rendered","format":"text"}]},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/span><\/p>\n

Investitor\u00ebt <\/span>kan\u00eb frik\u00eb se inflacioni po kthehet. Mund t\u00eb ken\u00eb t\u00eb drejt\u00eb. A do t\u00eb p\u00ebrs\u00ebris\u00eb bota gabimet e viteve 1970? \u00a0 <\/span><\/p>\n

Pasi arriti kulmin n\u00eb vitin 2022 me 11% n\u00eb baz\u00eb vjetore, inflacioni n\u00eb vendet e pasura ka r\u00ebn\u00eb vazhdimisht. Ose t\u00eb pakt\u00ebn deri tani. Nd\u00ebrsa bankat qendrore po ulin normat e interesit, inflacioni i p\u00ebrgjithsh\u00ebm n\u00eb vendet e pasura ka filluar t\u00eb rritet s\u00ebrish. <\/span><\/p>\n

Ai u rrit nga 2.1% n\u00eb shtator, n\u00eb 2.5% n\u00eb dhjetor, shkruan The Economist. M\u00eb 19 shkurt, Britania raportoi inflacionin p\u00ebr janarin: 3% n\u00eb baz\u00eb vjetore, nga niveli m\u00eb i ul\u00ebt i fundit prej 1.7%. Inflacioni i Polonis\u00eb n\u00eb janar ishte 5.3%, nga 4.7% nj\u00eb muaj m\u00eb par\u00eb. <\/span><\/p>\n

Inflacioni i Gjermanis\u00eb ra n\u00eb 2.3%, por ishte ende mbi nivelin 1.6% t\u00eb arritur ver\u00ebn e kaluar. <\/span><\/p>\n

\u00c7mimet e konsumit n\u00eb Amerik\u00eb u rrit\u00ebn me 3% n\u00eb baz\u00eb vjetore, nga niveli m\u00eb i ul\u00ebt i fundit prej 2.4%. <\/span><\/p>\n

Disa pyesin pse bankat qendrore i ul\u00ebn normat p\u00ebrpara se inflacioni t\u00eb ishte n\u00eb ose n\u00ebn objektiv, duke pasur parasysh se rritja ekonomike nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb ngadal\u00ebsuar. \u201cInflacioni \u00ebsht\u00eb si puna e buburrecave\u201d, shkroi s\u00eb fundmi John Cochrane nga Universiteti Stanford. \u201cKur kan\u00eb mbetur vet\u00ebm disa, nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb koha p\u00ebr t\u00eb hequr dor\u00eb\u201d. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

A do t\u00eb p\u00ebrs\u00ebris\u00eb bota e pasur gabimet e viteve 1970? Asokohe, politik\u00ebb\u00ebr\u00ebsit vran\u00eb shumic\u00ebn e buburrecave, por lan\u00eb disa q\u00eb ishin m\u00eb kok\u00ebfort\u00ebt dhe k\u00ebta t\u00eb fundit vazhduan t\u00eb rriteshin eg\u00ebrsisht. <\/span><\/p>\n

N\u00eb Amerik\u00eb, inflacioni arriti n\u00eb 12% n\u00eb vitin 1974, ra n\u00eb 5% n\u00eb vitin 1976 dhe m\u00eb pas u ngjit n\u00eb 15% n\u00eb vitin 1980. Bankat qendrore nuk arrit\u00ebn t\u00eb rregullonin mjaftuesh\u00ebm shpejt politik\u00ebn monetare sa p\u00ebr t\u00eb parandaluar q\u00eb goditja e \u00e7mimit t\u00eb naft\u00ebs n\u00eb vitin 1979 t\u00eb p\u00ebrhapej n\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00eb ekonomin\u00eb. <\/span><\/p>\n

Politik\u00ebb\u00ebr\u00ebsit arrit\u00ebn ta \u00e7rr\u00ebnjosnin inflacionin nj\u00eb her\u00eb e mir\u00eb, vet\u00ebm pas nj\u00eb recensioni t\u00eb madh n\u00eb fillim t\u00eb viteve 1980, t\u00eb cilin e krijuan q\u00ebllimisht. Investitor\u00ebt nuk jan\u00eb t\u00eb sigurt n\u00ebse inflacioni i lart\u00eb do t\u00eb rikthehet. <\/span><\/p>\n

\u00c7mimet e tregut tregojn\u00eb se Rezerva Federale do t\u00eb ndjek\u00eb nj\u00eb politik\u00eb monetare m\u00eb t\u00eb lirshme n\u00eb t\u00eb ardhmen dhe zakonisht bankat e tjera qendrore t\u00eb bot\u00ebs ndjekin rrug\u00ebn e saj. Jav\u00ebt e fundit, yield-et e bonove qeveritare kan\u00eb r\u00ebn\u00eb, gj\u00eb q\u00eb mund t\u00eb tregoj\u00eb se shqet\u00ebsimet p\u00ebr inflacionin jan\u00eb leht\u00ebsuar. <\/span><\/p>\n

Nga ana tjet\u00ebr, nj\u00eb parashikim nga dega e Rezerv\u00ebs Federale n\u00eb Cleveland, tregon se pritshm\u00ebrit\u00eb e tregut p\u00ebr inflacionin gjat\u00eb vitit t\u00eb ardhsh\u00ebm jan\u00eb rritur nga rreth 2.2% n\u00eb shtator, n\u00eb 2.7% sot. \u00a0 <\/span><\/p>\n

Mosp\u00ebrputhja tregon se ka mosmarr\u00ebveshje intelektuale. Disa ekspert\u00eb mendojn\u00eb se rritja e fundit e inflacionit \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb mirazh. <\/span><\/p>\n

Statisticien\u00ebt rregullojn\u00eb t\u00eb dh\u00ebnat p\u00ebr t\u00eb pasqyruar ngjarjet q\u00eb ndodhin n\u00eb nj\u00eb periudh\u00eb t\u00eb caktuar t\u00eb vitit (si\u00e7 \u00ebsht\u00eb rritja e \u00e7mimeve q\u00eb shum\u00eb dyqane imponojn\u00eb n\u00eb janar). <\/span><\/p>\n

Pandemia Covid-19, e cila krijoi paq\u00ebndrueshm\u00ebri t\u00eb madhe, ka ngat\u00ebrruar k\u00ebto rregullime sezonale, t\u00eb cilat mund t\u00eb krijojn\u00eb p\u00ebrshtypjen se \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb i lart\u00eb se norma \u201ce v\u00ebrtet\u00eb\u201d. <\/span><\/p>\n

T\u00eb tjer\u00eb theksojn\u00eb se inflacioni i p\u00ebrgjithsh\u00ebm rritet gjithmon\u00eb, p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb \u00e7mimeve t\u00eb paq\u00ebndrueshme t\u00eb mallrave. <\/span><\/p>\n

Ekonomist\u00ebt n\u00eb Bank\u00ebn Morgan Stanley mendojn\u00eb se zjarret e fundit n\u00eb Kaliforni mund t\u00eb ken\u00eb rritur p\u00ebrkoh\u00ebsisht \u00e7mimet e mallrave n\u00eb Amerik\u00eb. <\/span><\/p>\n

N\u00eb janar, n\u00eb nj\u00eb num\u00ebr shtetesh midis t\u00eb cilave Belgjika dhe Norvegjia pati rritje t\u00eb m\u00ebdha t\u00eb \u00e7mimit t\u00eb ushqimeve, ndoshta p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb shqet\u00ebsimeve p\u00ebr nj\u00eb luft\u00eb tregtare. <\/span><\/p>\n

Bankat qendrore zakonisht i shp\u00ebrfillin k\u00ebto pengesa kur vendosin politik\u00ebn monetare. Por jo t\u00eb gjith\u00eb jan\u00eb kaq t\u00eb qet\u00eb. Sidoqofshin problemet me rregullimin sezonal, ato nuk mund t\u00eb ndikojn\u00eb n\u00eb inflacionin e matur n\u00eb baz\u00eb vjetore, i cili duket qart\u00eb se po rritet. <\/span><\/p>\n

P\u00ebr m\u00eb tep\u00ebr, ka prova q\u00eb tregojn\u00eb se vendet e pasura po p\u00ebrjetojn\u00eb v\u00ebrtet m\u00eb shum\u00eb trysni inflacioniste. Firma k\u00ebshillimore Alternative Macro Signals, ka p\u00ebrpunuar miliona artikuj lajmesh p\u00ebrmes nj\u00eb modeli t\u00eb inteligjenc\u00ebs artificiale, p\u00ebr t\u00eb nd\u00ebrtuar nj\u00eb \u201ctregues t\u00eb trysnis\u00eb s\u00eb inflacionit n\u00eb lajme\u201d. <\/span><\/p>\n

Ky tregues global, q\u00eb ka dal\u00eb nj\u00eb parashikues i dobish\u00ebm i shifrave zyrtare, koh\u00ebt e fundit \u00ebsht\u00eb rritur ndjesh\u00ebm, ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht n\u00eb Amerik\u00eb. <\/span><\/p>\n

Tregjet e pun\u00ebs n\u00eb vendet e pasura mbeten gjithashtu t\u00eb shtr\u00ebnguara. Shkalla e papun\u00ebsis\u00eb n\u00eb vendet e grupit OECD ka qen\u00eb tashm\u00eb n\u00ebn nivelin 5% p\u00ebr gati tre vjet. <\/span><\/p>\n

Nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb q\u00eb kompanit\u00eb po garojn\u00eb fort p\u00ebr staf, pagat nominale po rriten me m\u00eb shum\u00eb se 4% n\u00eb baz\u00eb vjetore n\u00eb ekonomit\u00eb e m\u00ebdha. <\/span><\/p>\n

Megjithat\u00eb, p\u00ebr fat t\u00eb keq, rritja e produktivitetit \u00ebsht\u00eb e dob\u00ebt. N\u00ebse pun\u00ebdh\u00ebn\u00ebsit nuk mund t\u2019i kompensojn\u00eb dot kostot m\u00eb t\u00eb larta t\u00eb pagave duke rritur prodhimin, at\u00ebher\u00eb duhet t\u2019i kalojn\u00eb ato te konsumator\u00ebt, n\u00eb form\u00ebn e \u00e7mimeve m\u00eb t\u00eb larta. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Kjo dukuri vihet re n\u00eb sektorin e sh\u00ebrbimeve, i cili mbulon gjith\u00e7ka, nga k\u00ebshillat financiare deri te terapia fizike. <\/span><\/p>\n

\u00c7mimet e sh\u00ebrbimeve po rriten me 4% n\u00eb baz\u00eb vjetore n\u00eb ekonomit\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb m\u00ebdha, sa dyfishi i norm\u00ebs s\u00eb para pandemis\u00eb. <\/span><\/p>\n

N\u00eb 18 shtetet e pasura q\u00eb kan\u00eb raportuar t\u00eb dh\u00ebna t\u00eb besueshme p\u00ebr janarin, inflacioni i sh\u00ebrbimeve \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb nivelin m\u00eb t\u00eb ul\u00ebt n\u00eb 14 prej tyre. N\u00eb Portugali \u00ebsht\u00eb rritur me nj\u00eb pik\u00eb p\u00ebrqindje. N\u00eb Estoni, me 3.7 pik\u00eb. <\/span><\/p>\n

Politikan\u00ebt mund t\u2019i shtojn\u00eb benzin\u00eb zjarrit inflacionist. Problemi nuk jan\u00eb bankat qendrore, t\u00eb cilat duhet t\u00eb jen\u00eb n\u00eb gjendje t\u2019i b\u00ebjn\u00eb ball\u00eb \u00e7do thirrjeje nga politikan\u00ebt p\u00ebr t\u00eb ulur normat e interesit. <\/span><\/p>\n

Rreth 40% e qeverive t\u00eb vendeve t\u00eb pasura po u japin ekonomive t\u00eb tyre nj\u00eb nxitje fiskale k\u00ebt\u00eb vit. Buxheti i fundit i Britanis\u00eb rriti shpenzimet p\u00ebr infrastruktur\u00ebn, nd\u00ebrsa Italia miratoi s\u00eb fundmi nj\u00eb buxhet q\u00eb p\u00ebrfshin shkurtime tatimore. <\/span><\/p>\n

Gjithashtu, shum\u00eb qeveri do t\u00eb hakmerren kund\u00ebr Trump duke vendosur tarifa p\u00ebr mallrat amerikane dhe duke rritur edhe m\u00eb tej \u00e7mimin e importeve. Krahasuar me koh\u00ebn para pandemis\u00eb, kompanit\u00eb dhe pun\u00ebtor\u00ebt mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrgjigjen m\u00eb fort ndaj k\u00ebtyre forcave pro-inflacioniste. <\/span><\/p>\n

N\u00eb vitin 2023, nj\u00eb punim i botuar nga Banka p\u00ebr Shlyerjet Nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare, bisedoi se \u00e7far\u00eb ndodh \u201cn\u00eb nj\u00eb regjim me inflacion t\u00eb lart\u00eb\u201d, ku rritja e \u00e7mimeve b\u00ebhet \u201cnj\u00eb pik\u00eb kryesore p\u00ebr pun\u00ebtor\u00ebt dhe firmat\u201d. <\/span><\/p>\n

Pasi njer\u00ebzit kan\u00eb p\u00ebrjetuar rritje t\u00eb shpejt\u00eb t\u00eb \u00e7mimeve, ata shqet\u00ebsohen se kjo do t\u00eb ndodh\u00eb p\u00ebrs\u00ebri. N\u00ebse pun\u00ebtor\u00ebt e kuptojn\u00eb se inflacioni do t\u00eb rritet, ata mund t\u00eb k\u00ebrkojn\u00eb me ngulm nj\u00eb rritje page. <\/span><\/p>\n

Kemi gjetur shenja shqet\u00ebsuese edhe p\u00ebrsa i p\u00ebrket marrjes s\u00eb kontrollit. Interesi p\u00ebr inflacionin, i matur nga k\u00ebrkimi n\u00eb Google, \u00ebsht\u00eb dy her\u00eb m\u00eb i lart\u00eb se para vitit 2021. <\/span><\/p>\n

Arsyet e tjera p\u00ebr t\u2019u shqet\u00ebsuar vijn\u00eb nga sondazhet e konsumator\u00ebve. Edhe pse inflacioni ka r\u00ebn\u00eb shum\u00eb q\u00eb nga kulmi i fundit, njer\u00ebzit ende presin rritje t\u00eb m\u00ebdha t\u00eb \u00e7mimeve n\u00eb muajt n\u00eb vijim. <\/span><\/p>\n

N\u00eb dhjetor, inflacioni i BE-s\u00eb ishte n\u00ebn nivelin 3%. Megjithat\u00eb, qytetar\u00ebt e BE-s\u00eb presin q\u00eb \u00e7mimet t\u00eb rriten me 10% gjat\u00eb 12 muajve t\u00eb ardhsh\u00ebm, dy her\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb se sa prisnin n\u00eb vitet 2010. <\/span><\/p>\n

Edhe n\u00eb Amerik\u00eb ka nj\u00eb \u201chendek t\u00eb ngjash\u00ebm t\u00eb perceptimit t\u00eb inflacionit\u201d. Norma e inflacionit n\u00eb Kanada ka qen\u00eb n\u00eb ose n\u00ebn nivelin 2% q\u00eb nga gushti. E megjithat\u00eb, kanadez\u00ebt ende presin nj\u00eb inflacion prej 3% gjat\u00eb vitit t\u00eb ardhsh\u00ebm, krahasuar me 2.4% para pandemis\u00eb. <\/span><\/p>\n

Jo shum\u00eb koh\u00eb m\u00eb par\u00eb, bankat qendrore po p\u00ebrg\u00ebzonin veten sepse e kishin ulur inflacionin shum\u00eb shpejt. Ky sukses kompensoi p\u00ebr gabimin e m\u00ebparsh\u00ebm kur u vonuan t\u00eb p\u00ebrgjigjeshin ndaj rritjes s\u00eb \u00e7mimeve. Megjithat\u00eb, si\u00e7 e din\u00eb shum\u00eb pronar\u00eb sht\u00ebpish, buburrecat kan\u00eb zakonin e keq q\u00eb rikthehen.<\/span><\/p>\n

VINI RE:<\/strong><\/span> Artikulli \u00ebsht\u00eb pron\u00ebsi intelektuale e Monitor<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false,"gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"rendered","format":"html"}]},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Investitor\u00ebt kan\u00eb frik\u00eb se inflacioni po kthehet. Mund t\u00eb ken\u00eb t\u00eb drejt\u00eb. A do t\u00eb p\u00ebrs\u00ebris\u00eb bota gabimet e viteve 1970? \u00a0 Pasi arriti kulmin n\u00eb vitin 2022 me 11% n\u00eb baz\u00eb vjetore, inflacioni n\u00eb vendet e pasura ka r\u00ebn\u00eb vazhdimisht. Ose t\u00eb pakt\u00ebn deri tani. Nd\u00ebrsa bankat qendrore po ulin normat e interesit, inflacioni […]<\/p>\n","protected":false,"gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"rendered","format":"html"}]},"author":32,"featured_media":567023,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[65],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-730137","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-lajme"],"gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"link","format":"url"}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/730137","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/32"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=730137"}],"version-history":[{"count":99999,"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/730137\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":730140,"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/730137\/revisions\/730140"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/567023"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=730137"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=730137"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=730137"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}