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Rendi global ekonomik dhe strategjik \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb l\u00ebkundje. Fuqia po b\u00ebhet gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb shum\u00ebpolare. Historia \u00ebsht\u00eb plot me shembuj t\u00eb miqve q\u00eb b\u00ebhen armiq dhe armikut q\u00eb b\u00ebhen mik kur interesat komb\u00ebtare ndryshojn\u00eb. <\/span><\/p>\n Si shembull sh\u00ebrben vizita e vitit 1972 t\u00eb antikomunistit Richard Nixon n\u00eb Pekin. Me k\u00ebt\u00eb n\u00eb mendje, k\u00ebtu \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb udh\u00ebzues disi spekulativ p\u00ebr linjat e ardhshme t\u00eb gabimeve t\u00eb gjeopolitik\u00ebs.<\/span><\/p>\n G-7 e udh\u00ebhequr nga Amerika p\u00ebrballet me BRICS<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n Grupi i Shtat\u00eb si\u00e7 njihet ndryshe G7, i p\u00ebrb\u00ebr\u00eb nga Kanadaja, Franca, Gjermania, Italia, Japonia, Britania e Madhe dhe SHBA, ka par\u00eb unitetin e tij t\u00eb q\u00ebllimit t\u00eb thellohet q\u00eb nga pushtimi i Ukrain\u00ebs nga Rusia n\u00eb vitin 2022. <\/span><\/p>\n Grupi i ekonomis\u00eb s\u00eb zhvilluar ka vendosur nj\u00eb kufi \u00e7mimi p\u00ebr naft\u00ebn ruse, ka sanksionuar kompanit\u00eb e saj dhe gjithashtu ato q\u00eb ndihmojn\u00eb Rusin\u00eb t\u00eb anashkaloj\u00eb kufizimet, ka ngrir\u00eb asetet ruse dhe ka derdhur miliarda dollar\u00eb ndihm\u00eb dhe kredi p\u00ebr Ukrain\u00ebn p\u00ebr t\u00eb financuar p\u00ebrpjekjet e saj t\u00eb luft\u00ebs. <\/span><\/p>\n Dorezat i jan\u00eb hedhur edhe Kin\u00ebs, me ministrat e Financave t\u00eb G-7 q\u00eb d\u00ebnojn\u00eb at\u00eb q\u00eb ata e quajt\u00ebn n\u00eb nj\u00eb deklarat\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrbashk\u00ebt “p\u00ebrdorimin gjith\u00ebp\u00ebrfshir\u00ebs t\u00eb praktikave jo-tregtare t\u00eb Kin\u00ebs q\u00eb minojn\u00eb pun\u00ebtor\u00ebt, industrit\u00eb dhe q\u00ebndrueshm\u00ebrin\u00eb ekonomike”.<\/span><\/p>\n Por n\u00ebse G-7 mendonte se pjesa tjet\u00ebr e bot\u00ebs do binte n\u00eb linj\u00eb, \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb mir\u00eb q\u00eb kjo gj\u00eb t\u00eb rimendohet. Grupi BRICS i ekonomive n\u00eb zhvillim ka gjetur nj\u00eb jet\u00eb t\u00eb re. Ajo q\u00eb filloi si nj\u00eb akronim p\u00ebr Brazilin, Rusin\u00eb, Indin\u00eb dhe Kin\u00ebn, e p\u00ebrfytyruar nga nj\u00eb ekonomist i Goldman Sachs Group Inc. n\u00eb vitin 2001, \u00ebsht\u00eb shnd\u00ebrruar n\u00eb nj\u00eb klub t\u00eb bot\u00ebs s\u00eb v\u00ebrret\u00eb pasi ato vende k\u00ebrkojn\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb ndikim n\u00eb sken\u00ebn globale – dhe ndoshta mbrojtje kund\u00ebr llojit t\u00eb muskujve q\u00eb G-7 ka p\u00ebrdorur kund\u00ebr Rusis\u00eb.<\/span><\/p>\n Afrika e Jugut – “S” n\u00eb shkurtim – u bashkua n\u00eb vitin 2010. N\u00eb samitin e BRICS t\u00eb vitit t\u00eb kaluar, Irani, Emiratet e Bashkuara Arabe, Etiopia dhe Egjipti u bashkuan dhe zgjerimi nuk do p\u00ebrfundoj\u00eb me kaq. Arabia Saudite po studion nj\u00eb ftes\u00eb p\u00ebr t’u regjistruar nd\u00ebrsa Nigeria, Malajzia, Tajlanda dhe Tunizia jan\u00eb nd\u00ebr ato q\u00eb kan\u00eb shprehur interes p\u00ebr ta b\u00ebr\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb. <\/span><\/p>\n N\u00ebn ombrell\u00ebn e BRICS, tensionet dypal\u00ebshe – t\u00eb tilla si mosmarr\u00ebveshjet kufitare midis Indis\u00eb dhe Kin\u00ebs – mbeten. Kjo nuk e ka ndalur shtytjen p\u00ebr bashk\u00ebpunim ekonomik: sondazhi m\u00eb i fundit vjetor ekonomik i Indis\u00eb nxjerr n\u00eb pah p\u00ebrfitimet e t\u00ebrheqjes s\u00eb investimeve kineze p\u00ebr t\u00eb rritur aft\u00ebsit\u00eb e prodhimit.<\/span><\/p>\n Nj\u00eb fitore e Kamala Harris-it ka t\u00eb ngjar\u00eb t\u00eb b\u00ebj\u00eb q\u00eb SHBA t\u00eb vazhdoj\u00eb p\u00ebrpjekjet e saj p\u00ebr t\u00eb form\u00ebsuar axhend\u00ebn globale p\u00ebrmes G-7, nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb q\u00eb k\u00ebrkon lidhje m\u00eb t\u00eb ngrohta me disa an\u00ebtar\u00eb t\u00eb BRICS, si India, p\u00ebr t\u00eb kund\u00ebrshtuar ndikimin kinez. <\/span><\/p>\n Nj\u00eb presidenc\u00eb e dyt\u00eb e Trump mund t\u00eb sinjalizoj\u00eb kthimin n\u00eb nj\u00eb qasje m\u00eb nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare ndaj politik\u00ebs s\u00eb jashtme – di\u00e7ka q\u00eb p\u00ebrputhet me vizionin e BRICS q\u00eb nxit multipolaritetin dhe bashk\u00ebpunimin e bazuar n\u00eb \u00e7\u00ebshtje duke mos theksuar aleancat, thot\u00eb Mihaela Papa, drejtoresh\u00eb e k\u00ebrkimit dhe shkenc\u00ebtare kryesore k\u00ebrkimore n\u00eb Qendra p\u00ebr Studime Nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare n\u00eb Institutin e Teknologjis\u00eb n\u00eb Massachusetts.<\/span><\/p>\n Arritjet m\u00eb t\u00eb prekshme t\u00eb grupit kan\u00eb qen\u00eb financiare. Vendet ran\u00eb dakord t\u00eb grumbullojn\u00eb 100 miliard\u00eb dollar\u00eb rezerva valutore, t\u00eb cilat mund t’i japin hua nj\u00ebri-tjetrit gjat\u00eb emergjencave. Integrim m\u00eb i madh mund t\u00eb b\u00ebhet n\u00ebse grupi mund t\u00eb zhvilloj\u00eb nj\u00eb mekaniz\u00ebm nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar pagese dhe nj\u00eb shk\u00ebmbim drithi. <\/span><\/p>\n Por edhe pa k\u00ebto hapa, ritmet m\u00eb t\u00eb shpejta t\u00eb rritjes ekonomike t\u00eb BRICS do nxisin lojtar\u00ebt e tij p\u00ebrgjith\u00ebsisht m\u00eb pak demokratik\u00eb dhe m\u00eb pak t\u00eb orientuar nga tregu, q\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrb\u00ebjn\u00eb nj\u00eb pjes\u00eb n\u00eb rritje t\u00eb ekonomis\u00eb bot\u00ebrore.<\/span><\/p>\n N\u00eb nj\u00eb rast t\u00eb rrall\u00eb t\u00eb dypartizizmit t\u00eb SHBA-s\u00eb, Kina \u00ebsht\u00eb e vendosur n\u00eb pik\u00ebn proteksioniste t\u00eb republikan\u00ebve dhe demokrat\u00ebve. Kjo i l\u00eb disa kompani teknologjike japoneze dhe koreano-jugore q\u00eb kan\u00eb mbetur t\u00eb zbuluara n\u00eb p\u00ebrballjen tregtare me Kin\u00ebn, duke qen\u00eb se ato detyrohen t\u00eb respektojn\u00eb kontrollet gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb t\u00eb rrepta mbi eksportet e lidhura me \u00e7ipat q\u00eb SHBA-ja ka vendosur.<\/span><\/p>\n Udh\u00ebheq\u00ebsit n\u00eb Japoni kujtojn\u00eb se industria e saj e \u00e7ipave u pengua n\u00eb vitet 1980 nga k\u00ebrkesat e SHBA-s\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb kufizuar eksportet e saj t\u00eb gjysm\u00ebp\u00ebr\u00e7uesve. N\u00eb ato dit\u00eb, Trump ishte kund\u00ebr politikave industriale t\u00eb Japonis\u00eb dhe jo t\u00eb Kin\u00ebs.<\/span><\/p>\n Samsung Electronics e Kores\u00eb dhe Toyota Motor e Japonis\u00eb kan\u00eb rritur investimet n\u00eb prodhimin amerikan n\u00eb p\u00ebrgjigje t\u00eb politikave industriale t\u00eb presidentit Joe Biden. Por ka edhe shenja se Japonia dhe Koreja po i mbrojn\u00eb bastet q\u00eb kan\u00eb hedhur. <\/span><\/p>\n Udh\u00ebheq\u00ebsit e tyre u takuan me kryeministrin Li Qiang, zyrtarin nr. 2 t\u00eb Kin\u00ebs, n\u00eb maj n\u00eb samitin e par\u00eb zyrtar trepal\u00ebsh q\u00eb nga viti 2019, duke detajuar planet p\u00ebr t\u00eb mbajtur tregtin\u00eb dhe investimet n\u00eb rrug\u00ebn e duhur, p\u00ebr t\u00eb forcuar bashk\u00ebpunimin n\u00eb zinxhir\u00ebt e furnizimit dhe p\u00ebr t\u00eb p\u00ebrshpejtuar bisedimet p\u00ebr nj\u00eb marr\u00ebveshje t\u00eb lir\u00eb tregtare. <\/span><\/p>\n Trump si president n\u00eb vitin 2019 kritikoi aleanc\u00ebn e SHBA me Japonin\u00eb dhe vijon t\u00eb d\u00ebnoj\u00eb at\u00eb q\u00eb ai e sheh si nj\u00eb barr\u00eb t\u00eb pabarabart\u00eb sigurie. Ai ka denoncuar gjithashtu koston e aleanc\u00ebs s\u00eb SHBA me Koren\u00eb e Jugut. <\/span><\/p>\n N\u00ebse Trump rimerr Sht\u00ebpin\u00eb e Bardh\u00eb, udh\u00ebheq\u00ebsit n\u00eb Seul dhe Tokio do ta gjejn\u00eb veten mes nj\u00eb fqinji kontinental gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb t\u00eb fuqish\u00ebm q\u00eb t\u00eb dy llogariten si tregu i tyre kryesor i eksportit dhe nj\u00eb aleat i larg\u00ebt dhe i paparashikuesh\u00ebm. Japonia dhe Koreja e Jugut do mbeten pran\u00eb SHBA-s\u00eb dhe skeptike p\u00ebr fuqin\u00eb e Kin\u00ebs.<\/span><\/p>\n Por ekonomia do jet\u00eb “themelore p\u00ebr drejtimin e udh\u00ebtimit”, thot\u00eb Richard McGregor, bashk\u00ebpun\u00ebtor i lart\u00eb p\u00ebr Azin\u00eb Lindore n\u00eb Institutin Lo\u00eby n\u00eb Sydney. N\u00ebse ekonomia kineze rim\u00ebk\u00ebmbet nga r\u00ebnia e saj e tanishme dhe SHBA-ja l\u00ebkundet, t\u00eb dy vendet \u201cdo p\u00ebrballen me shum\u00eb zgjedhje t\u00eb pak\u00ebndshme\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n Lula merr modelin Milei<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n Kur Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva mundi Jair Bolsonaron n\u00eb fund t\u00eb vitit 2022, rikthimi i tij n\u00eb presidenc\u00ebn e Brazilit mbuloi nj\u00eb seri fitoresh zgjedhore p\u00ebr kandidat\u00ebt e krahut t\u00eb majt\u00eb n\u00eb Amerik\u00ebn Latine. Dy vjet m\u00eb von\u00eb ai po ndjek nj\u00eb t\u00eb sapoardhur libertar n\u00eb Argjentin\u00ebn fqinje, Javier Milei. Kushdo q\u00eb del n\u00eb krye mund t\u00eb pretendoj\u00eb udh\u00ebheqjen ideologjike t\u00eb rajonit, duke vendosur potencialisht tonin p\u00ebr votat n\u00eb Bolivi, Kili dhe Ekuador.<\/span><\/p>\n Lula ka luftuar p\u00ebr t\u00eb rimarr\u00eb vitet e arta t\u00eb dy mandateve t\u00eb tij t\u00eb m\u00ebparshme nga 2003 deri n\u00eb 2011. Ai \u00ebsht\u00eb grindur me shefin e bank\u00ebs qendrore dhe kompanin\u00eb shtet\u00ebrore t\u00eb naft\u00ebs, Petrobras, nd\u00ebrsa bumi i mallrave q\u00eb ai dikur udh\u00ebtonte drejt suksesit ekonomik \u00ebsht\u00eb zbehur. Me rivalitetin SHBA-Kin\u00eb q\u00eb ka p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb pjes\u00ebn tjet\u00ebr t\u00eb bot\u00ebs, Lula ka qen\u00eb i ulur diku n\u00eb mes. Polarizimi politik \u00ebsht\u00eb i p\u00ebrhapur. Me Lul\u00ebn mezi nj\u00eb jav\u00eb n\u00eb detyr\u00eb, mb\u00ebshtet\u00ebsit e Bolsonaros u t\u00ebrbuan n\u00ebp\u00ebr Bras\u00edlia. <\/span><\/p>\n Por Lula mori nj\u00eb rritje t\u00eb papritur pasi ekonomia e Brazilit sh\u00ebnoi nj\u00eb tremujor t\u00eb dyt\u00eb t\u00eb fort\u00eb n\u00eb 2024. Kjo do t\u00eb leht\u00ebsoj\u00eb presionin mbi qeverin\u00eb e tij p\u00ebr t\u00eb futur masa fiskale p\u00ebr nxitjen e rritjes, thot\u00eb Adriana Dupita, e cila mbulon Brazilin dhe Argjentin\u00ebn p\u00ebr Bloomberg Economics.<\/span><\/p>\n Milei, pasi u fut n\u00eb presidenc\u00eb n\u00eb tetor t\u00eb vitit t\u00eb kaluar n\u00eb nj\u00eb platform\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb shtr\u00ebnguar shtetin p\u00ebr t\u00eb zbutur inflacionin prej gati 300%, ka miratuar nj\u00eb program shtr\u00ebngues nd\u00ebshkues. Shpenzimet konsumatore u zvog\u00ebluan dhe papun\u00ebsia u rrit, pasi pensionet e v\u00ebrteta dhe pagat publike jan\u00eb shkurtuar. M\u00eb shum\u00eb se gjysma e argjentinasve tani jetojn\u00eb n\u00ebn kufirin e varf\u00ebris\u00eb.<\/span><\/p>\n Megjithat\u00eb, ai ka vijuar t\u00eb anketoj\u00eb fuqish\u00ebm me votuesit e zem\u00ebruar nga dekada t\u00eb keqmenaxhimit ekonomik. Inflacioni mujor, i cili arriti nivelin m\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb t\u00eb tre dekadave prej 25.5% n\u00eb dhjetor kur Milei mori detyr\u00ebn, ra n\u00eb 4% n\u00eb korrik.<\/span><\/p>\n N\u00ebse Argjentina mund t\u00eb b\u00ebnte nj\u00eb rikthim dhe Brazili ngadal\u00ebsohej, kjo mund t\u00eb rriste profilin nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar t\u00eb Mileit.<\/span><\/p>\n “Por un\u00eb nuk e shoh q\u00eb Milei e p\u00ebrdor at\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb rritur lidhjet tregtare ose ekonomike,”<\/em> thot\u00eb Dupita, duke v\u00ebn\u00eb n\u00eb dukje se ai hoqi dor\u00eb nga planet p\u00ebr t’u bashkuar me BRICS – konferenc\u00ebn e t\u00eb cilit Lula do ta mir\u00ebpres\u00eb n\u00eb Brazil n\u00eb 2025 – dhe hodhi posht\u00eb nj\u00eb samit t\u00eb paktit tregtar Mercosur.<\/span><\/p>\n \u201cN\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb kuptim, gjithashtu, ai \u00ebsht\u00eb e kund\u00ebrta e Lul\u00ebs, i cili patjet\u00ebr do p\u00ebrdorte \u00e7do r\u00ebnd\u00ebsi nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare p\u00ebr t\u00eb zgjeruar ndikimin e tij brenda jugut global.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n