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Vdekja e presidentit iranian Ebrahim Raisi dhe ministrit t\u00eb Jasht\u00ebm Hossein Amirabdollahian n\u00eb nj\u00eb p\u00ebrplasje me helikopter n\u00eb provinc\u00ebn e Azerbajxhanit Lindor t\u00eb vendit shkaktoi val\u00eb trondit\u00ebse n\u00eb gjith\u00eb Iranin dhe Lindjen e Mesme t\u00eb trazuar, ku p\u00ebrfaq\u00ebsuesit e Teheranit kan\u00eb zgjeruar ndikimin.<\/span><\/p>\n Zyrtar\u00ebt rajonal\u00eb dhe analist\u00ebt politik\u00eb po peshojn\u00eb ndikimin e rr\u00ebzimit n\u00eb procesin e vendimmarrjes s\u00eb brendshme t\u00eb Iranit dhe politik\u00ebn e tij t\u00eb jashtme, me disa q\u00eb kan\u00eb frik\u00eb se Garda Revolucionare (IRGC) e fuqishme do kthehet p\u00ebr t\u00eb ushtruar m\u00eb shum\u00eb pushtet.<\/span><\/p>\n V\u00ebzhguesit iranian\u00eb kan\u00eb v\u00ebn\u00eb n\u00eb dukje prej koh\u00ebsh nj\u00eb luft\u00eb p\u00ebr pushtet midis Korpusit t\u00eb Gard\u00ebs Revolucionare Islamike (IRGC) dhe fraksioneve reformiste dhe t\u00eb moderuara t\u00eb Iranit derisa Raisi erdhi n\u00eb pushtet n\u00eb vitin 2021.<\/span><\/p>\n Megjithat\u00eb, K\u00ebshilli i Gard\u00ebs, nj\u00eb organ q\u00eb vendos se cil\u00ebt politikan\u00eb jan\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrshtatsh\u00ebm p\u00ebr poste, lejoi vet\u00ebm nj\u00eb pjes\u00eb t\u00eb vog\u00ebl t\u00eb kandidat\u00ebve reformist\u00eb t\u00eb profilit t\u00eb ul\u00ebt t\u00eb sfidonin Raisin.<\/span><\/p>\n IRGC ishte n\u00eb gjendje t\u00eb rriste ndikimin e saj n\u00ebn mbik\u00ebqyrjen e Raisit, thot\u00eb Mehmet Bulovali, nj\u00eb analist politik irakian dhe nj\u00eb ish-k\u00ebshilltar n\u00eb presidenc\u00ebn irakiane.<\/span><\/p>\n Pas vdekjes s\u00eb Raisit, IRGC do p\u00ebrpiqet t\u00eb ushtroj\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb pushtet, nd\u00ebrsa p\u00ebrpiqet t\u00eb tregoj\u00eb se nuk ka kaos politik, sthot\u00eb ai, por nj\u00eb p\u00ebr\u00e7arje serioze e brendshme q\u00eb mund t\u00eb shnd\u00ebrrohet n\u00eb nj\u00eb kriz\u00eb, ka pak gjasa t\u00eb ndodh\u00eb.<\/span><\/p>\n \u201cN\u00eb vitin 1981, nj\u00eb bomb\u00eb vrau 74 zyrtar\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb, duke p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb disa klerik\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb, pas dit\u00ebve t\u00eb tensionuara t\u00eb revolucionit t\u00eb 1979, por sistemi ishte n\u00eb gjendje t\u00eb mbijetonte.\u201d<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n Do kishte qen\u00eb ndryshe n\u00ebse presidenti iranian do vritej n\u00eb nj\u00eb atentat dhe jo n\u00eb nj\u00eb aksident, thot\u00eb Bulovali p\u00ebr TRT World.<\/span><\/p>\n \u201cN\u00ebse k\u00ebto vdekje do kishin ndodhur p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb komploteve t\u00eb brendshme apo t\u00eb jashtme, at\u00ebher\u00eb mund t\u00eb kishim menduar p\u00ebr skenar\u00eb krize. N\u00eb at\u00eb rast, sistemi iranian do duhet t’i p\u00ebrgjigjet me forc\u00eb atyre autor\u00ebve, duke \u00e7uar n\u00eb reagime t\u00eb ndryshme, por nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb k\u00ebshtu,”<\/em> thot\u00eb ai.<\/span><\/p>\n Kush mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb presidenti i ardhsh\u00ebm?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n Bulovali mendon se Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf, kryetari i parlamentit, ndoshta do t\u00eb jet\u00eb presidenti i ardhsh\u00ebm iranian.<\/span><\/p>\n Kryetari i Parlamentit iranian Mohammad Baqer Galibaf takohet me Komandantin e P\u00ebrgjithsh\u00ebm t\u00eb Korpusit t\u00eb Gard\u00ebs Revolucionare Islamike (IRGC) gjeneralmajor Hossein Salami n\u00eb Teheran, 21 janar 2023.<\/span><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n Ghalibaf, nj\u00eb ish-oficer ushtarak, \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb aleat i fort\u00eb i IRGC-s\u00eb dhe Mojtaba Khamenei, djali i Udh\u00ebheq\u00ebsit Suprem t\u00eb vendit Ali Khamenei, thot\u00eb Bulovali, nj\u00eb tipar q\u00eb Ghalibaf e ndan me Raisin.<\/span><\/p>\n Shum\u00eb ekspert\u00eb e shohin Mojtaban si nj\u00eb pasardh\u00ebs t\u00eb mundsh\u00ebm t\u00eb babait t\u00eb tij p\u00ebr t\u00eb marr\u00eb pozicionin kryesor n\u00eb vendin q\u00eb zot\u00ebron m\u00eb shum\u00eb pushtet sesa zyra e presidentit.<\/span><\/p>\n \u201cN\u00ebse t\u00eb dyja k\u00ebto figura, Galibaf dhe Khamenei i vog\u00ebl, arrijn\u00eb postet e tyre hipotetike t\u00eb mundshme, kjo do t\u00eb thot\u00eb se gjith\u00e7ka do jet\u00eb n\u00ebn kontrolline plot\u00eb t\u00eb Gard\u00ebs\u201d<\/em>, thot\u00eb Bulovali.<\/span><\/p>\n Zgjedhjet e parakohshme presidenciale duhet t\u00eb mbahen n\u00eb 50 dit\u00ebt e ardhshme, sipas Kushtetut\u00ebs iraniane.<\/span><\/p>\n Fatima Karimkhan, nj\u00eb gazetare me baz\u00eb n\u00eb Teheran, nuk sheh ndonj\u00eb trazir\u00eb serioze politike t\u00eb brendshme pas vdekjes s\u00eb Raisit.<\/span><\/p>\n “Nuk ka asnj\u00eb mund\u00ebsi.”<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n Kjo nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb hera e par\u00eb q\u00eb kreu i qeveris\u00eb vdes, thot\u00eb ajo, duke v\u00ebn\u00eb n\u00eb dukje vrasjen e ish-presidentit Mohammad Ali Rajai n\u00eb vitin 1981.<\/span><\/p>\n \u00a0\u201cZgjedhjet e ardhshme presidenciale do jen\u00eb shum\u00eb t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme nga k\u00ebndv\u00ebshtrimi i politik\u00ebs, por n\u00ebse njer\u00ebzit vendosin t’i marrin seriozisht apo jo \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb \u00e7\u00ebshtje q\u00eb do ndikohet nga shum\u00eb faktor\u00eb,\u201d<\/em> tha Karimkhan p\u00ebr TRT \u00cborld.<\/span><\/p>\n \u00a0\u201cTani p\u00ebr tani, duket se zgjedhjet e ardhshme presidenciale do jen\u00eb midis forcave t\u00eb vij\u00ebs s\u00eb ashp\u00ebr. Kryetari i parlamentit, Ghalibaf, do jet\u00eb nj\u00eb nga kandidat\u00ebt e shquar mes shum\u00eb emrave t\u00eb tjer\u00eb, por \u00ebsht\u00eb shum\u00eb her\u00ebt p\u00ebr t\u00eb folur p\u00ebr zgjedhjet e ardhshme presidenciale tani.\u201d<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n Pas vdekjes s\u00eb Amirabdollahian, Ali Bahgeri Kani, z\u00ebvend\u00ebs i kryediplomatit t\u00eb ndjer\u00eb, u b\u00eb ushtrues detyre i ministrit t\u00eb Jasht\u00ebm. Karimkhan e sheh k\u00ebt\u00eb em\u00ebrim si nj\u00eb shenj\u00eb t\u00eb konservator\u00ebve q\u00eb konsolidojn\u00eb pushtetin e tyre, sepse Kani \u00ebsht\u00eb “shum\u00eb m\u00eb i ashp\u00ebr se ministri i Jasht\u00ebm i ndjer\u00eb”.<\/span><\/p>\n Negociatori kryesor b\u00ebrthamor i Iranit Ali Bagheri Kani d\u00ebgjon ministrin e Jasht\u00ebm rus Sergey Lavrov gjat\u00eb nj\u00eb takimi n\u00eb Teheran, 23 qershor 2022<\/span><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n David Des Roches, nj\u00eb profesor n\u00eb Qendr\u00ebn p\u00ebr Studime Strategjike t\u00eb Azis\u00eb Jugore t\u00eb Universitetit Komb\u00ebtar t\u00eb Mbrojtjes dhe nj\u00eb Kolonel n\u00eb pension i ushtris\u00eb amerikane, sheh nj\u00eb mund\u00ebsi q\u00eb IRGC mund t\u00eb “p\u00ebrfundoj\u00eb n\u00eb thelb nj\u00eb grusht shteti me l\u00ebvizje t\u00eb ngadalt\u00eb” pas vdekjes s\u00eb Raisit dhe Amirabdollahian.<\/span><\/p>\n Mund\u00ebsi p\u00ebr reformist\u00ebt<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n Si Bulovali, ashtu edhe Karimkhan nuk shohin ndonj\u00eb mund\u00ebsi t\u00eb v\u00ebrtet\u00eb p\u00ebr reformist\u00ebt n\u00eb zgjedhjet e parakohshme presidenciale.<\/span><\/p>\n Bulovali thot\u00eb se t\u00ebrheqja e SHBA-s\u00eb nga marr\u00ebveshja b\u00ebrthamore gjat\u00eb qeveris\u00eb s\u00eb Presidentit Donald Trump i dha nj\u00eb goditje l\u00ebvizjes reformiste, e cila mbronte p\u00ebrmir\u00ebsimin e lidhjeve me Per\u00ebndimin n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb merrte leht\u00ebsim nga sanksionet nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare, t\u00eb cilat kan\u00eb penguar ekonomin\u00eb iraniane.<\/span><\/p>\n Sanksionet e udh\u00ebhequra nga SHBA-ja mund t\u00eb mbeten edhe pas vdekjes s\u00eb Raisit pasi ato kan\u00eb bllokuar furnizimin e pjes\u00ebve t\u00eb avion\u00ebve te Irani, duke e detyruar Teheranin t\u00eb p\u00ebrdor\u00eb avion\u00eb dhe helikopter\u00eb me defekt dhe t\u00eb vjet\u00ebr.<\/span><\/p>\n P\u00ebrfshirja e t\u00ebrthorta t\u00eb Iranit n\u00eb luft\u00ebn Ukrain\u00eb-Rusi dhe lufta e Izraelit n\u00eb Gaza i pengon m\u00eb tej p\u00ebrpjekjet e reformist\u00ebve p\u00ebr t’u afruar drejt Per\u00ebndimit, nd\u00ebrsa vendi i tyre vijon t\u00eb punoj\u00eb ngusht\u00eb me Rusin\u00eb dhe Hamasin, thot\u00eb Bulovali.<\/span><\/p>\n “Reformist\u00ebt dhe t\u00eb moderuarit nuk do ken\u00eb vend n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb gar\u00eb n\u00ebse gj\u00ebrat shkojn\u00eb n\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00ebn m\u00ebnyr\u00eb si tre vjet m\u00eb par\u00eb kur Raisi erdhi n\u00eb detyr\u00eb,”<\/em> thot\u00eb Karimkhan, duke iu referuar skualifikimit t\u00eb shum\u00eb kandidat\u00ebve me mendje reformiste n\u00eb sondazhin e vitit 2021 nga K\u00ebshilli Mbik\u00ebqyr\u00ebs dhe pjes\u00ebmarrja e ul\u00ebt n\u00eb zgjedhje.<\/span><\/p>\n Por nj\u00eb pjes\u00ebmarrje e ul\u00ebt, e cila u heq zgjedhjeve legjitimitetin, \u00ebsht\u00eb pik\u00ebrisht arsyeja q\u00eb elita fetare iraniane mund t\u00eb lejoj\u00eb t\u00eb moderuarit t\u00eb kandidojn\u00eb p\u00ebr zgjedhje.<\/span><\/p>\n Ghoncheh Tazmini, nj\u00eb analist politik iraniano-kanadez dhe autor i librit Irani i Khatemit: Republika Islamike dhe rruga e trazuar drejt reform\u00ebs, thot\u00eb se frika nga nj\u00eb pjes\u00ebmarrje e ul\u00ebt mund ta shtyj\u00eb Teheranin t\u00eb lejoj\u00eb nj\u00eb list\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb larmishme kandidat\u00ebsh t\u00eb marr\u00eb pjes\u00eb n\u00eb zgjedhjet e ardhshme.<\/span><\/p>\n Irani pati nj\u00eb pjes\u00ebmarrje rekord t\u00eb ul\u00ebt n\u00eb zgjedhjet e fundit parlamentare, t\u00eb cilat forcoi pal\u00ebt e vij\u00ebs s\u00eb ashp\u00ebr n\u00eb parlament.<\/span><\/p>\n An\u00ebtar\u00ebt e stafit t\u00eb nj\u00eb qendre votimi marrin pjes\u00eb n\u00eb qendrat e tyre gjat\u00eb balotazhit parlamentar n\u00eb Teheran, 10 maj 2024<\/span><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n “Kjo mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb nj\u00eb koh\u00eb e p\u00ebrshtatshme p\u00ebr t\u00eb nxitur nj\u00eb proces politik m\u00eb gjith\u00ebp\u00ebrfshir\u00ebs duke paraqitur nj\u00eb kandidat presidencial m\u00eb t\u00eb moderuar, i cili mund t\u00eb t\u00ebrheq\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb votues n\u00eb kutin\u00eb e votimit,”<\/em> tha Tazmini p\u00ebr TRT \u00cborld. Megjithat\u00eb, ajo thot\u00eb se nuk ka gjasa q\u00eb nj\u00eb skenar i till\u00eb t\u00eb ndodh\u00eb, duke marr\u00eb parasysh sfidat e brendshme dhe t\u00eb jashtme t\u00eb Iranit.<\/span><\/p>\n \u00a0\u201cDuke pasur parasysh gjendjen e rritur t\u00eb tensioneve n\u00eb rajon, nj\u00eb udh\u00ebheq\u00ebs m\u00eb konservator n\u00eb krye mund t\u00eb ket\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb kuptim, gj\u00eb q\u00eb nga ana tjet\u00ebr mund t\u00eb nxis\u00eb konkurrenc\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb fort\u00eb brenda linj\u00ebs s\u00eb ashp\u00ebr. Nga perspektiva e siguris\u00eb komb\u00ebtare, K\u00ebshilli i Gard\u00ebs mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb edhe m\u00eb rigoroz n\u00eb verifikimin e kandidat\u00ebve p\u00ebr t\u00eb siguruar q\u00eb presidenti i ardhsh\u00ebm mund t\u00eb mbroj\u00eb shtetin gjat\u00eb k\u00ebsaj kohe trazirash rajonale,\u201d<\/em> thot\u00eb ajo.<\/span><\/p>\n A ka ndonj\u00eb ndryshim n\u00eb politik\u00ebn e jashtme?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n Analist\u00ebt nuk parashikojn\u00eb ndonj\u00eb ndryshim serioz n\u00eb politik\u00ebn e jashtme t\u00eb Iranit, duke p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb q\u00ebndrimin e tij ndaj Izraelit.<\/span><\/p>\n “Do t\u00eb ket\u00eb vijim\u00ebsi n\u00eb trajektoren e politik\u00ebs s\u00eb jashtme iraniane me nj\u00eb prirje t\u00eb vijueshme drejt Lindjes me nj\u00eb p\u00ebrpjekje p\u00ebr t\u00eb marr\u00eb pjes\u00eb n\u00eb grupimet politike dhe ekonomike “joper\u00ebndimore” dhe n\u00eb organizatat rajonale,”<\/em> thot\u00eb Tazmini, duke iu referuar aleanc\u00ebs n\u00eb rritje t\u00eb Teheranit me Rusin\u00eb dhe Kin\u00ebn.<\/span><\/p>\n Ajo gjithashtu vler\u00ebson Raisin p\u00ebr “diplomacin\u00eb e tij shum\u00ebpolare n\u00eb nj\u00eb format shum\u00ebpal\u00ebsh”.<\/span><\/p>\n Raisi, nj\u00eb fol\u00ebs i rrjedhsh\u00ebm i arabishtes, ishte i dobish\u00ebm n\u00eb nd\u00ebrtimin e marr\u00ebdh\u00ebnieve me bot\u00ebn arabe, gj\u00eb q\u00eb \u00e7oi n\u00eb normalizimin e marr\u00ebdh\u00ebnieve mes Arabis\u00eb Saudite e Iranit dhe n\u00eb uljen e tensioneve n\u00eb Gjirin Persik, thot\u00eb ajo.<\/span><\/p>\n Ai gjithashtu mbik\u00ebqyri an\u00ebtar\u00ebsimin e Iranit n\u00eb organizata shum\u00ebpal\u00ebshe si Organizata e Bashk\u00ebpunimit t\u00eb Shangait (SCO) dhe BRICS, shton ajo.<\/span><\/p>\n N\u00eb lidhje me Sirin\u00eb, Libanin, Irakun dhe zonat e tjera, “Irani do vijoj\u00eb strategjin\u00eb e tij t\u00eb mbrojtjes p\u00ebrpara p\u00ebr t\u00eb arritur thell\u00ebsin\u00eb strategjike, duke nd\u00ebrtuar nj\u00eb rrjet deg\u00ebsh duke mb\u00ebshtetur partner\u00ebt dhe p\u00ebrfaq\u00ebsuesit lokal\u00eb jo-shtet\u00ebror\u00eb”<\/em>, thot\u00eb Tazmini, duke iu referuar Aleanca e Teheranit me Hezbollahun e Libanit, milicit\u00eb shiite irakiane dhe regjimin e Asadit.<\/span><\/p>\n Ky model ushtarak iranian si nj\u00eb form\u00eb parandalimi bazohet n\u00eb perceptimin e Teheranit p\u00ebr nj\u00eb mjedis t\u00eb siguris\u00eb k\u00ebrc\u00ebnuese dhe t\u00eb paq\u00ebndrueshme n\u00eb Lindjen e Mesme, sipas Tazmini.<\/span><\/p>\n Karimkhan gjithashtu nuk sheh ndonj\u00eb mund\u00ebsi p\u00ebr ndonj\u00eb ndryshim t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsish\u00ebm n\u00eb politik\u00ebn e jashtme t\u00eb Iranit n\u00eb gjith\u00eb Lindjen e Mesme. Kur b\u00ebhet fjal\u00eb p\u00ebr politik\u00ebn rajonale t\u00eb Teheranit, qeverit\u00eb iraniane jan\u00eb thjesht \u201cdrejtues politikash\u201d, thot\u00eb ajo. Kjo vlen edhe p\u00ebr politik\u00ebn e Iranit ndaj Izraelit, thot\u00eb ajo.<\/span><\/p>\n “Izraeli ka mjaftuesh\u00ebm gj\u00ebra p\u00ebr t’u shqet\u00ebsuar tani p\u00ebr tani dhe Irani \u00ebsht\u00eb shum\u00eb m\u00eb i madh dhe m\u00eb i fort\u00eb se sa \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb gjendje t\u00eb trajtoj\u00eb Izraeli,”<\/em> thot\u00eb ajo.<\/span><\/p>\n Pasi Irani dhe Izraeli shk\u00ebmbyen sulme muajin e kaluar, gj\u00ebrat u duk se u kthyen n\u00eb rregullat e m\u00ebparshme t\u00eb p\u00ebrfshirjes t\u00eb nj\u00eb doktrine ushtarake n\u00eb t\u00eb cil\u00ebn Teherani p\u00ebrdor p\u00ebrfaq\u00ebsuesit e tij p\u00ebr t\u00eb luftuar Izraelin, sipas Bulovali.<\/span><\/p>\n Por kjo mund t\u00eb ndryshoj\u00eb gjithashtu n\u00eb var\u00ebsi t\u00eb zhvillimeve n\u00eb luft\u00ebn e Gaz\u00ebs dhe politik\u00ebs s\u00eb brendshme izraelite, thot\u00eb ai.<\/span><\/p>\n “Si izraelit\u00ebt dhe iranian\u00ebt jan\u00eb duke pritur p\u00ebr rezultatin e zgjedhjeve n\u00eb SHBA p\u00ebr t\u00eb rikalibruar l\u00ebvizjet e tyre t\u00eb ardhshme.”<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/19898683_0-0-1999-1333.jpeg\")
![\"Negociatori](\"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/19898799_0-0-4549-3033.jpeg\")
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/19898895_0-0-4500-3000.jpeg\")