{"id":669204,"date":"2024-04-21T08:59:24","date_gmt":"2024-04-21T06:59:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/?p=669204"},"modified":"2024-04-21T08:59:24","modified_gmt":"2024-04-21T06:59:24","slug":"sanksionet-e-reja-te-perendimit-dhe-konflikti-me-izraelin-a-e-perballon-dot-irani-ekonomikisht-luften","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/2024\/04\/21\/sanksionet-e-reja-te-perendimit-dhe-konflikti-me-izraelin-a-e-perballon-dot-irani-ekonomikisht-luften\/","title":{"rendered":"Sanksionet e reja t\u00eb per\u00ebndimit dhe konflikti me Izraelin, a e p\u00ebrballon dot Irani ekonomikisht luft\u00ebn?","gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"rendered","format":"text"}]},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/span><\/p>\n

N\u00eb nj\u00eb koh\u00eb q\u00eb\u00a0SHBA\u00a0dhe\u00a0BE\u00a0duan sanksione t\u00eb reja kund\u00ebr Teheranit, vet\u00eb vendi do t\u00eb bjer\u00eb n\u00eb sy me lajme suksesi, si psh. lajmi se\u00a0Irani\u00a0ka arritur t\u00eb shes\u00eb naft\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb se kurr\u00eb m\u00eb par\u00eb n\u00eb gjasht\u00eb vitet e fundit. E kjo megjith\u00eb sanksionet e SHBA, q\u00eb vendosi n\u00eb vitin 2018 presidenti Trump. <\/span><\/p>\n

Ministri iranian p\u00ebr Naft\u00ebn, Javad Ovji b\u00ebri t\u00eb ditur n\u00eb mars, se eksportet e naft\u00ebs kan\u00eb sjell\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb se \u201c35 miliard\u00eb dollar\u00eb\u201d n\u00eb ark\u00ebn e shtetit iranian. <\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cArmiqt\u00eb e Iranit\u201d duan t\u00eb ndalin eksportet tona t\u00eb naft\u00ebs, por sot ne mund t\u00eb eksportojm\u00eb naft\u00eb ku t\u00eb duam, dhe k\u00ebt\u00eb me oferta shum\u00eb t\u00eb mira”<\/em>, ka cituar Financial Times<\/em>\u00a0ministrin iranian.<\/span><\/p>\n

Miliarda t\u00eb ardhura jan\u00eb shum\u00eb t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme p\u00ebr vendin q\u00eb t\u00eb siguroj\u00eb paqen e brendshme sociale. Nj\u00eb pjes\u00eb e madhe e popullsis\u00eb i vuan drejtp\u00ebrdrejt pasojat e sanksioneve nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare, ato kan\u00eb sjell\u00eb r\u00ebnien e fort\u00eb t\u00eb valut\u00ebs s\u00eb vendit, rial dhe kan\u00eb rritur inflacionin, deri n\u00eb 40%. <\/span><\/p>\n

Profesori i ekonomis\u00eb n\u00eb universitetin amerikan, Virgina Tech, Djavad Salehi-Isfahani, thot\u00eb p\u00ebr DW, se ashp\u00ebrsimi i konflikteve gjeopolitike po ushtron nj\u00eb presion t\u00eb ri ndaj valut\u00ebs iraniane duke e zhvler\u00ebsuar edhe m\u00eb shum\u00eb at\u00eb kundrejt dollarit amerikan. <\/span><\/p>\n

N\u00eb muajt e fundit\u00a0rial<\/em>\u00a0humbi 25% t\u00eb vler\u00ebs kundrejt dollarit. \u201cKy zhvler\u00ebsim i kursit t\u00eb k\u00ebmbimit reflektohet shpejt n\u00eb \u00e7mime shum\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb larta, sepse Irani importon shum\u00eb mallra.\u201d Sipas Salehi-Isfahani, Irani duhet t\u00eb p\u00ebrgatitet p\u00ebr nj\u00eb periudh\u00eb t\u00eb gjat\u00eb me inflacion t\u00eb lart\u00eb.<\/span><\/p>\n

Standardi jet\u00ebsor si n\u00eb vitin 2005<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

P\u00ebr shkak se Irani nuk i siguron dot vet\u00eb artikujt ushqimor\u00eb, r\u00ebnia e vler\u00ebs s\u00eb valut\u00ebs dhe inflacioni i lart\u00eb b\u00ebjn\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb rriten ndjesh\u00ebm \u00e7mimet e ushqimeve. \u201cKjo ka efekt t\u00eb fort\u00eb tek mir\u00ebqenia e pjes\u00ebs m\u00eb t\u00eb varf\u00ebr t\u00eb popullsis\u00eb, sepse sigurimi i artikujve ushqimor\u00eb p\u00ebrb\u00ebn gjysm\u00ebn e shpenzimeve t\u00eb tyre\u201d, thot\u00eb eksperti p\u00ebr ekonomin\u00eb e Lindjes s\u00eb Mesme.<\/span><\/p>\n

Por gjendja \u00ebsht\u00eb keq\u00ebsuar edhe p\u00ebr shtres\u00ebn e mesme n\u00eb dy dekadat e fundit. \u201cStandardi i jetes\u00ebs \u00ebsht\u00eb s\u00ebrish n\u00eb nivelin e para 20 viteve p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb sanksioneve\u201d, thekson Isfahani. Edhe v\u00ebllimi ekonomik ka k\u00ebt\u00eb nivel ndoshta vet\u00ebm pak p\u00ebrqind m\u00eb lart\u00eb, thot\u00eb eksperti, shkruan DW<\/a><\/strong><\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Situata ekonomike e Iranit varet shum\u00eb nga eksportet e naft\u00ebs. Q\u00eb kur m\u00eb shum\u00eb se 90% e naft\u00ebs shkon n\u00eb Kin\u00eb, po humbasin gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb shum\u00eb efektin edhe sanksionet e per\u00ebndimit. Prandaj pushtetmbajt\u00ebsit n\u00eb Teheran jan\u00eb shum\u00eb t\u00eb shqet\u00ebsuar, n\u00ebse sektori i naft\u00ebs, q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb burimi kryesor i deviz\u00ebs mund t\u00eb b\u00ebhej objekt i nj\u00eb sulmi si kund\u00ebrp\u00ebrgjigje nga ana e Izraelit. Isfahani e formulon k\u00ebshtu situat\u00ebn n\u00eb Teheran. <\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cJam shum\u00eb i sigurt, q\u00eb ata jan\u00eb shum\u00eb t\u00eb shqet\u00ebsuar, sepse nj\u00eb luft\u00eb, q\u00eb mund t\u00eb d\u00ebmtoj\u00eb edhe infrastruktur\u00ebn p\u00ebr eksportet e naft\u00ebs do t\u00eb ishte nj\u00eb goditje e r\u00ebnd\u00eb p\u00ebr ekonomin\u00eb.<\/em>\u201d <\/span><\/p>\n

Pas shokut q\u00eb shkaktuan sanksionet e vendosura nga SHBA n\u00eb vitin 2018, Irani ka arritur nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb s\u00ebrish 80% t\u00eb sasis\u00eb s\u00eb eksportit t\u00eb at\u00ebhersh\u00ebm. Por kjo nuk ka \u00e7uar n\u00eb p\u00ebrmir\u00ebsimin e jetes\u00ebs p\u00ebr popullsin\u00eb, pasi shumica e burimeve financiare shkojn\u00eb p\u00ebr forcimin ushtarak t\u00eb vendit dhe masa t\u00eb tjera t\u00eb regjimit t\u00eb mullah\u00ebve.<\/span><\/p>\n

Korrupsion dhe munges\u00eb transparence<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Shum\u00eb para zhduken po ashtu n\u00eb strukturat jo transparente t\u00eb pushtetmbajt\u00ebsve shiit\u00eb n\u00eb Teheran. N\u00eb indeksin e Transparency International p\u00ebr perceptimin e korrupsionit, Irani z\u00eb vendin e 149 nga 180 vende. <\/span><\/p>\n

Shum\u00eb i paqart\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb edhe roli i Gard\u00ebs s\u00eb Revolucionit, nj\u00eb ushtri paralele, dhe ai i fondacioneve fetare, q\u00eb kontrollojn\u00eb pjes\u00eb t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme t\u00eb ekonomis\u00eb iraniane. Ata nuk paguajn\u00eb tatime, nuk duhet t\u00eb paraqesin bilance ekonomike dhe jan\u00eb t\u00eb varura direkt nga kreu politik dhe fetar i Republik\u00ebs Islamike, Ajatollah Ali Khamenei.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u00ebr ekspertin e Lindjes s\u00eb Mesme, Martin Beck nga Universiteti i \u201cSouthern Denmark\u201d (SDU) ekonomia e Iranit p\u00ebrb\u00ebhet nga nj\u00eb \u201cp\u00ebrzierje e sfer\u00ebs politike dhe ekonomike q\u00eb nxit nj\u00eb politik\u00eb klienteliste dhe t\u00eb shp\u00ebrndarjes q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb e lidhur ngusht\u00eb me korrupsionin.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Megjith\u00ebse t\u00eb ardhurat nga shitja e naft\u00ebs jan\u00eb stabilizuar n\u00eb vitet e fundit, Irani \u00ebsht\u00eb gjith\u00e7ka tjet\u00ebr, por jo nj\u00eb fuqi ekonomike. Megjith\u00ebse popullsia e tij me 88 milion\u00eb banor\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb gati 10 her\u00eb m\u00eb e lart\u00eb se ajo e armikut t\u00eb tij t\u00eb vjet\u00ebr, Izraelit me 9 milion\u00eb banor\u00eb, v\u00ebllimi i ekonomik i Iranit me 413 miliard\u00eb dollar\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb duksh\u00ebm m\u00eb i ul\u00ebt se ai i Izraelit, me 525 miliard\u00eb dollar\u00eb. <\/span><\/p>\n

K\u00ebshtu se si do t\u00eb zhvillohet ekonomia e vendit, varet shum\u00eb nga efekti i sanksioneve t\u00eb reja per\u00ebndimore, n\u00ebse ato do arrinin t\u2019i ulnin ndjesh\u00ebm eksportet e naft\u00ebs.<\/span><\/p>\n

Eksportet e naft\u00ebs vendimtare<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Teherani ia ka dal\u00eb n\u00eb tre muajt e par\u00eb t\u00eb k\u00ebtij viti t\u00eb shes\u00eb mesatarisht 1,56 milion\u00eb fu\u00e7i nafte n\u00eb dit\u00eb, dhe gati t\u00eb gjith\u00ebn tek Kina. Kjo ka qen\u00eb vlera m\u00eb e lart\u00eb e shitjeve q\u00eb nga viti 2018. \u201cIranian\u00ebt e zot\u00ebrojn\u00eb mir\u00eb artin e anashkalimit t\u00eb sanksioneve\u201d, citohet Fernando Ferreira i \u201cRapidan Energy Group\u201d nga gazeta\u00a0Financial Times.\u00a0<\/em>\u201cN\u00ebse qeveria e Bidenit do t\u00eb arrij\u00eb v\u00ebrtet di\u00e7ka k\u00ebtu, ajo duhet q\u00eb ta vendos\u00eb fokusin tek Kina.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

SHBA vet\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb shum\u00eb m\u00eb e pavarur nga eksportet e naft\u00ebs nga Lindja e Mesme. Megjithat\u00eb ashp\u00ebrsimi i sanksioneve kund\u00ebr Iranit do t\u00eb \u00e7onte n\u00eb rritje t\u00eb \u00e7mimit t\u00eb naft\u00ebs n\u00eb tregjet bot\u00ebrore dhe do t\u00eb kishte pasoja edhe n\u00eb rritjen e inflacionit. P\u00ebr presidentin Biden n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb vit zgjedhor kjo do t\u00eb thoshte t\u2019i hapte vet\u00eb der\u00ebn rivalit t\u00eb tij, Donald Trump.<\/span><\/p>\n

Por pavar\u00ebsisht, n\u00ebse sanksionet shkall\u00ebzohen ose jo, a d<\/span>o t\u00eb ishte ekonomia e Iranit gati t\u00eb p\u00ebrballonte nj\u00eb shkall\u00ebzim t\u00eb konfliktit me Izraelin? P\u00ebrgjigja e profesorit t\u00eb ekonomis\u00eb,\u00a0 Djavad Salehi-Isfahani \u00ebsht\u00eb e qart\u00eb: \u201cN\u00eb t\u00ebr\u00ebsi ajo nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb gati p\u00ebr nj\u00eb konflikt t\u00eb gjat\u00eb luftarak. <\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

Prandaj ata (pushtetmbajt\u00ebsit n\u00eb Teheran, sh\u00ebn.red.) kan\u00eb treguar shum\u00eb kujdes t\u00eb mos p\u00ebrzihen shum\u00eb n\u00eb luft\u00ebn e Gaz\u00ebs. Dhe sulmi kund\u00ebr Izraelit ishte m\u00eb shum\u00eb nj\u00eb gj\u00eb simbolike, se sa nj\u00eb sulm q\u00eb donte v\u00ebrtet t\u00eb sillte d\u00ebme.\u201d<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false,"gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"rendered","format":"html"}]},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

N\u00eb nj\u00eb koh\u00eb q\u00eb\u00a0SHBA\u00a0dhe\u00a0BE\u00a0duan sanksione t\u00eb reja kund\u00ebr Teheranit, vet\u00eb vendi do t\u00eb bjer\u00eb n\u00eb sy me lajme suksesi, si psh. lajmi se\u00a0Irani\u00a0ka arritur t\u00eb shes\u00eb naft\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb se kurr\u00eb m\u00eb par\u00eb n\u00eb gjasht\u00eb vitet e fundit. E kjo megjith\u00eb sanksionet e SHBA, q\u00eb vendosi n\u00eb vitin 2018 presidenti Trump. Ministri iranian p\u00ebr Naft\u00ebn, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false,"gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"rendered","format":"html"}]},"author":4,"featured_media":669205,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-669204","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nderkombetare"],"gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"link","format":"url"}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/669204","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=669204"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/669204\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/669205"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=669204"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=669204"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=669204"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}