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Oresti i ndjekur nga Furit\u00eb, t\u00eb cilat personifikojn\u00eb zem\u00ebrimin e t\u00eb vdekurve<\/span><\/em>Nga John Authers<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n *<\/span>John Authers \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb redaktor me pesh\u00eb p\u00ebr tregjet dhe editorialist i Bloomberg Opinion. Ish-komentator kryesor i tregjeve n\u00eb Financial Times, ai \u00ebsht\u00eb autor i librit “Ngritja e frikshme e tregjeve”.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n Furit\u00eb e Lindjes s\u00eb Mesme<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n Grek\u00ebt e lasht\u00eb jan\u00eb nj\u00eb udh\u00ebrr\u00ebfyes i madh gjeopolitik. Me sa duket, t\u00eb gjith\u00eb tani analizojn\u00eb konkurrenc\u00ebn midis Kin\u00ebs dhe SHBA-s\u00eb n\u00eb lidhje me \u201cKurthin e Tukididit<\/a><\/span>\u201d – historiani argumentoi se lufta midis Athin\u00ebs n\u00eb rritje dhe Spart\u00ebs q\u00eb ishte nj\u00eb fuqi e njohur u b\u00eb e pashmangshme, sepse ai q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb pushtet dhe e ka at\u00eb do p\u00ebrpiqet gjithmon\u00eb t\u00eb mbroj\u00eb pozicionin. <\/span><\/p>\n P\u00ebr t\u00eb kuptuar gjendjen e tmerrshme n\u00eb Lindjen e Mesme<\/a><\/span>, ndoshta duhet t\u2019i kthehemi tragjedis\u00eb greke dhe t\u00eb pyesim n\u00ebse bota mund t’i shp\u00ebtoj\u00eb \u201cKurthit t\u00eb Eskilit\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n Eskili ishte i pari nga tragjedian\u00ebt e m\u00ebdhenj grek\u00eb, veprat e t\u00eb cilit kan\u00eb mbijetuar, dhe \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb i famsh\u00ebm p\u00ebr trilogjin\u00eb e tij Orestia. Ai p\u00ebrqendrohet n\u00eb nocionin e marrjes s\u00eb gjakut; sa her\u00eb q\u00eb dikush arrin hakmarrjen, dikush tjet\u00ebr duhet t\u00eb hakmerret dhe k\u00ebshtu cikli tragjik nuk ndalet.<\/span><\/p>\n N\u00eb shfaqjen e par\u00eb t\u00eb Orestias, Klitemnestra vret bashk\u00ebshortin e saj Agamemnon p\u00ebr t’u hakmarr\u00eb p\u00ebr vajz\u00ebn e tyre, Ifegjenin\u00eb, t\u00eb cil\u00ebn ai e kishte sakrifikuar n\u00eb p\u00ebrpjekje p\u00ebr t\u00eb siguruar fitoren n\u00eb Luft\u00ebn e Troj\u00ebs. <\/span><\/p>\n N\u00eb t\u00eb dyt\u00ebn, djali i tyre Oresti vret Klitemnestr\u00ebn p\u00ebr t’u hakmarr\u00eb p\u00ebr Agamemnonin. <\/span><\/p>\n N\u00eb t\u00eb tret\u00ebn, t\u00eb titulluar Furit\u00eb<\/a> <\/span>ose Eumenid\u00ebt, Oresti ndiqet nga Furit\u00eb t\u00eb cil\u00ebt p\u00ebrpiqen ta \u00e7ojn\u00eb at\u00eb n\u00eb \u00e7menduri dhe vet\u00ebvrasje me faj. Nj\u00eb “marrje gjaku” i detyron t\u00eb gjith\u00eb personazhet n\u00eb p\u00ebrshkall\u00ebzim dhe dhun\u00eb t\u00eb pafundme. Asnj\u00eb vdekje nuk mund t\u00eb kaloj\u00eb pa hakmarrje dhe dhuna vet\u00ebm mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrshkall\u00ebzohet.<\/span><\/p>\n R\u00ebnd\u00ebsia me dinamik\u00ebn e Lindjes s\u00eb Mesme \u00ebsht\u00eb mjaft e qart\u00eb. Sulmet me raketa iraniane ndaj Izraelit gjat\u00eb fundjav\u00ebs ishin ato q\u00eb analistja Tina Fordham e \u201cFordham Global Foresight\u201d e p\u00ebrshkruan si “rritja m\u00eb e madhe n\u00eb rrezikun gjeopolitik t\u00eb Lindjes s\u00eb Mesme p\u00ebr 30 vjet”. Investitor\u00ebt e Wall Street<\/a> <\/span>kan\u00eb nxituar t\u00eb vler\u00ebsojn\u00eb ndikimin. M\u00eb posht\u00eb jan\u00eb disa pika t\u00eb spikatura:<\/span><\/p>\n Me nj\u00eb kund\u00ebrsulm izraelit q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb mund\u00ebsi n\u00eb p\u00ebrgjigje t\u00eb nj\u00eb sulmi t\u00eb till\u00eb t\u00eb papar\u00eb q\u00eb d\u00ebshtoi, Fordham argumenton se kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb “pika m\u00eb e af\u00ebrt q\u00eb i jemi afruar p\u00ebr sa i p\u00ebrket nj\u00eb lufte rajonale n\u00eb shkall\u00eb t\u00eb plot\u00eb n\u00eb Lindjen e Mesme p\u00ebr dekada”.<\/span><\/p>\n Do t\u00eb ket\u00eb efekte an\u00ebsore. Fordham sugjeron se suksesi i mbrojtjes do n\u00ebnkuptoj\u00eb “rritjen e presionit ndaj SHBA-s\u00eb dhe Evrop\u00ebs p\u00ebr t\u00eb furnizuar Ukrain\u00ebn me mbrojtje ajrore n\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00ebjtin nivel me at\u00eb t\u00eb Izraelit”, nd\u00ebrsa aleat\u00ebt n\u00eb Azi duan t\u00eb shohin q\u00eb SHBA-ja i mban premtimet e saj.<\/span><\/p>\n Shp\u00ebrthime n\u00eb qiell mbi Tel Aviv<\/span><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n Sidoqoft\u00eb, perspektiva e menj\u00ebhershme duket sfiduese. Irani paralajm\u00ebroi fqinj\u00ebt e tij dhe SHBA-n\u00eb shum\u00eb p\u00ebrpara, gj\u00eb q\u00eb e b\u00ebri m\u00eb t\u00eb leht\u00eb kufizimin e d\u00ebmit. Nuk pati vdekje n\u00eb njer\u00ebz, p\u00ebr t\u00eb cilat Izraelit i duhej t\u00eb hakmerrej.<\/span><\/p>\n Vendi madje ka nj\u00eb \u201cushqim\u201d t\u00eb konsideruesh\u00ebm p\u00ebr opinionin publik t\u00eb pamjeve t\u00eb sistemit t\u00eb tij t\u00eb mbrojtjes raketore q\u00eb rr\u00ebzon predha q\u00eb shkuan drejt xhamis\u00eb Al-Aksa. Kabineti i luft\u00ebs i Izraelit thot\u00eb se nuk ka vendosur p\u00ebr nj\u00eb p\u00ebrgjigje, madje as nuk i ka k\u00ebrkuar ushtris\u00eb p\u00ebr mund\u00ebsi t\u00eb tilla.<\/span><\/p>\n Sipas Adam Tooze nga Universiteti i Kolumbias:<\/span><\/p>\n \u201cLeximi i favorizuar aktualisht nga shumica e komentuesve ekonomik\u00eb dhe njer\u00ebzit q\u00eb duhet t\u00eb shp\u00ebrndajn\u00eb triliona dollar\u00eb t\u00eb h\u00ebn\u00ebn n\u00eb m\u00ebngjes \u00ebsht\u00eb se megjith\u00ebse ky p\u00ebrshkall\u00ebzim \u00ebsht\u00eb shqet\u00ebsues, ai \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb shembull i lojtar\u00ebve kryesor\u00eb q\u00eb sinjalizojn\u00eb me sukses se ata “duhet t\u00eb veprojn\u00eb”, por q\u00eb k\u00ebrkojn\u00eb t\u00eb shmangni p\u00ebrshkall\u00ebzimin e p\u00ebrgjithsh\u00ebm. N\u00ebse \u00ebsht\u00eb e v\u00ebrtet\u00eb, ky do ishte nj\u00eb lajm i mir\u00eb. Por p\u00ebrshkall\u00ebzimi i tensionit n\u00eb Lindjen e Mesme, i kombinuar me ankthin n\u00eb rritje p\u00ebr Ukrain\u00ebn, tregon edhe nj\u00eb her\u00eb se sa dometh\u00ebn\u00ebse \u00ebsht\u00eb “dob\u00ebsia negative gjeopolitike”.<\/span><\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n Kur njer\u00ebzit japin sinjale diplomatike duke gjuajtur raketa n\u00eb drejtim t\u00eb nj\u00ebri-tjetrit, rreziku i nj\u00eb incidenti<\/a> <\/span>rritet shum\u00eb m\u00eb tep\u00ebr. Gjithashtu, kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb terma afatshkurt\u00ebr. N\u00eb terma afatgjat\u00eb, \u00e7\u00ebshtja e ambicieve b\u00ebrthamore t\u00eb Iranit nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb larguar dhe nuk mund t\u00eb largohet. <\/span><\/p>\n N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb kontekst, Benny Gantz, nj\u00eb an\u00ebtar i kabinetit t\u00eb luft\u00ebs t\u00eb Izraelit, nj\u00eb politikan q\u00eb nuk para pajtohet me linj\u00ebn e kryeministrit Benjamin Netanyahu, u zotua t\u00eb k\u00ebrkonte pagimin e nj\u00eb \u00e7mimi nga Irani “n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00ebn dhe koh\u00ebn q\u00eb i p\u00ebrshtatet” Izraelit. <\/span><\/p>\n Kjo duket se n\u00ebnkupton nj\u00eb sulm t\u00eb drejtp\u00ebrdrejt\u00eb dhe t\u00eb q\u00ebllimsh\u00ebm izraelit m\u00eb von\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb vit p\u00ebr t\u00eb hequr objektet b\u00ebrthamore iraniane, nj\u00eb rezultat<\/a> <\/span>i parashikuar nga Andrew Bishop i \u201cSignum Global Advisors\u201d. Kjo do krijonte nj\u00eb gjendje shum\u00eb intensive gjeopolitike, ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht n\u00ebse do ishte af\u00ebr zgjedhjeve presidenciale n\u00eb SHBA. Por n\u00ebse Izraeli d\u00ebshiron t\u00eb vazhdoj\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrgatitet p\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb mund\u00ebsi, do kishte kuptim t\u00eb q\u00ebndronte i p\u00ebrmbajtur p\u00ebr momentin.<\/span><\/p>\n \u00c7far\u00eb na thot\u00eb Eskili se si t’i japim fund nj\u00eb shtegu hakmarrjeje?<\/span><\/p>\n N\u00eb Furit\u00eb, per\u00ebndit\u00eb greke nd\u00ebrhyjn\u00eb dhe i detyrojn\u00eb ata t\u00eb pranojn\u00eb rezultatin e nj\u00eb gjyqi q\u00eb do mbahet nga njer\u00ebzit, me nj\u00eb votim n\u00eb fund. Votimi n\u00eb fund del i barabart\u00eb, dhe Athena ka vot\u00ebn vendimtare. Ajo i bind athinasit se ky duhet t\u00eb jet\u00eb fundi i \u00e7\u00ebshtjes dhe Orestit i kursehet jeta.<\/span><\/p>\n Furit\u00eb mposhten dhe nd\u00ebshkohen dhe i gjith\u00eb cikli tragjik p\u00ebrfundon me debatin e tyre pasionant me Athen\u00ebn pasi Oresti \u00ebsht\u00eb arratisur. Deri n\u00eb fund, Furit\u00eb jan\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb Eumenid\u00eb – t\u00eb bekuarit. <\/span><\/p>\n Rruga p\u00ebr t\u00eb kap\u00ebrcyer nj\u00eb m\u00ebri gjaku, \u00ebsht\u00eb krijimi i institucioneve dhe ligjeve, t\u00eb pajisura me njer\u00ebz q\u00eb mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrdorin gjykimin e tyre m\u00eb t\u00eb mir\u00eb. I gjith\u00eb cikli primitiv i hakmarrjes p\u00ebrfundon me nj\u00eb lavd\u00ebrim p\u00ebr shtetin e s\u00eb drejt\u00ebs dhe p\u00ebr institucionet athinase.<\/span><\/p>\n Eskili e p\u00ebrmblodhi<\/a> <\/span>dhimbjen e zgjedhjes s\u00eb paqes n\u00eb nj\u00eb fraz\u00eb<\/a> <\/span>t\u00eb cituar n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb paharrueshme nga Robert Kennedy n\u00eb Indianapolis, nd\u00ebrsa erdhi lajmi p\u00ebr vrasjen e Martin Luther King Jr. n\u00eb 1968:<\/span><\/p>\n \u201cN\u00eb gjumin ton\u00eb, dhimbja q\u00eb nuk mund t\u00eb harrohet bie pik\u00eb-pik\u00eb n\u00eb zem\u00ebr derisa, n\u00eb d\u00ebshp\u00ebrimin ton\u00eb, kund\u00ebr vullnetit ton\u00eb, vjen men\u00e7uria n\u00ebp\u00ebrmjet hirit t\u00eb jasht\u00ebzakonsh\u00ebm t\u00eb Per\u00ebndis\u00eb.\u201d<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n \u00cbsht\u00eb e v\u00ebshtir\u00eb t\u00eb imagjinohet nj\u00eb per\u00ebndesh\u00eb Athena moderne, ose nj\u00eb Robert F. Kennedy t\u00eb shfaqet p\u00ebr t\u00eb ndaluar at\u00eb q\u00eb mund t\u00eb ndodh\u00eb. Institucionet globale t\u00eb krijuara p\u00ebr t\u00eb ruajtur paqen duken m\u00eb t\u00eb dob\u00ebta se dikur. <\/span><\/p>\n Megjithat\u00eb, ekziston t\u00eb pakt\u00ebn nj\u00eb precedent shum\u00eb pozitiv q\u00eb inateve t\u00eb gjakut mund t’u rezistohet. N\u00eb vitin 1991, nd\u00ebrsa SHBA-ja dhe aleat\u00ebt e saj filluan bombardimin e Irakut p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb pushtimit t\u00eb Kuvajtit, Saddam Husseini u p\u00ebrgjigj duke sulmuar Izraelin me raketa.<\/span><\/p>\n Ky incident i ngjan m\u00eb s\u00eb shumti asaj q\u00eb Irani ka b\u00ebr\u00eb n\u00eb dekadat e fundit dhe ishte krijuar p\u00ebr t\u00eb provokuar Izraelin n\u00eb nj\u00eb p\u00ebrgjigje q\u00eb do bashkonte bot\u00ebn arabe kund\u00ebr aleanc\u00ebs s\u00eb udh\u00ebhequr nga SHBA-ja. Sulmet nuk ishin aq t\u00eb gjera sa ato t\u00eb k\u00ebsaj fundjave, por shkaktuan shum\u00eb m\u00eb tep\u00ebr dhimbje, duke vrar\u00eb dy njer\u00ebz drejtp\u00ebrdrejt dhe duke \u00e7uar n\u00eb dhjet\u00ebra vdekje t\u00eb tjera dhe duke d\u00ebmtuar 1,400 nd\u00ebrtesa. <\/span><\/p>\n Megjithat\u00eb, kryeministri shum\u00eb konservator i Izraelit, Yitzhak Shamir, dhe koleg\u00ebt e tij u bind\u00ebn t\u00eb mos p\u00ebrgjigjen, duke leht\u00ebsuar shum\u00eb detyr\u00ebn e aleat\u00ebve n\u00eb d\u00ebbimin e shpejt\u00eb t\u00eb Irakut nga fqinji i tij i vog\u00ebl.<\/span><\/p>\n Netanyahu dhe Shamir n\u00eb konferenc\u00ebn e paqes n\u00eb Madrid n\u00eb 1991<\/span><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n Kjo ishte m\u00ebnyra si mund t\u00eb shmangej r\u00ebnia n\u00eb Kurthin e Eskilit. N\u00eb vitet pas vitit 1991, ishte di\u00e7ka popullore t\u00eb kritikohej administrata e George H.W. Bush p\u00ebr mos shtyrjen e Bagdadit dhe rr\u00ebzimin e Sadamit. N\u00eb dy dekadat e fundit, ajo pjes\u00eb e vet\u00ebp\u00ebrmbajtjes \u00ebsht\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb e mir\u00eb.<\/span><\/p>\n N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb pik\u00eb, Netanyahu mund t\u00eb zgjidhte t\u00eb ishte nj\u00eb Shamir. Irani thot\u00eb se \u00e7\u00ebshtja \u00ebsht\u00eb mbyllur. Asnj\u00eb izraelit nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb vrar\u00eb. Fitorja mund t\u00eb pretendohet nga Izraeli. Duke shkuar m\u00eb tej, pozita e vendit me pjes\u00ebn tjet\u00ebr t\u00eb bot\u00ebs \u00ebsht\u00eb shum\u00eb m\u00eb e dob\u00ebt tani se 33 vjet m\u00eb par\u00eb, nd\u00ebrsa vet\u00eb pozicioni i Netanyahut n\u00eb vend \u00ebsht\u00eb i pasigurt. <\/span><\/p>\n Institucionet e krijuara p\u00ebr ta kontrolluar at\u00eb, n\u00eb gjendjen si\u00e7 jan\u00eb, duken sikur mund t\u00eb rezistojn\u00eb. N\u00eb ekuilibrin e mund\u00ebsive, gjasat jan\u00eb q\u00eb kjo gjendje t\u00eb mos p\u00ebrshkall\u00ebzohet m\u00eb tej.<\/span><\/p>\n A \u00ebsht\u00eb kjo e sigurt? Absolutisht jo. K\u00ebrkohet kujdes i madh. Dhe analiza q\u00eb kam paraqitur tashm\u00eb duket se \u00ebsht\u00eb e ngjashme me llogaritjet e strateg\u00ebve, k\u00ebshtu q\u00eb nj\u00eb p\u00ebrgjigje e madhe ushtarake nga Izraeli do ishte shum\u00eb befasuese dhe negative. Por n\u00eb ekuilib\u00ebr, kjo nuk ka gjasa t\u00eb ndodh\u00eb.<\/span><\/p>\n \u00c7far\u00eb do b\u00ebjn\u00eb tregjet?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n N\u00eb koh\u00ebn e shkrimit, tregjet kryesore t\u00eb p\u00ebrfshira kan\u00eb hapur tregtimin e tyre aziatik n\u00eb modalitetin e leht\u00ebsimit. \u00c7mimet e naft\u00ebs nuk kan\u00eb p\u00ebrparuar, nd\u00ebrsa ari dhe bonot e thesarit nuk tregojn\u00eb asnj\u00eb shenj\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00eb rritjeje drejt siguris\u00eb:<\/span><\/p>\n Aksionet n\u00eb SHBA kishin treguar disa shenja t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme ankthi, por ato tashm\u00eb jan\u00eb n\u00eb nivele shum\u00eb t\u00eb ngritura ku shum\u00eb besojn\u00eb se nj\u00eb t\u00ebrheqje do ishte nj\u00eb ide e mir\u00eb. <\/span><\/p>\n Diferencat e ngushta t\u00eb kredis\u00eb japin shum\u00eb hap\u00ebsir\u00eb \u200b\u200bp\u00ebr shitje. Paq\u00ebndrueshm\u00ebria n\u00eb versionin e Nasdaq 100 t\u00eb indeksit VIX \u00ebsht\u00eb rritur mbi 20 p\u00ebr her\u00eb t\u00eb par\u00eb q\u00eb nga tetori – por ishte m\u00eb shum\u00eb se dyfishi n\u00eb muajt e par\u00eb t\u00eb luft\u00ebs n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb:<\/span><\/p>\n Paq\u00ebndrueshm\u00ebria: n\u00eb rritje, por ende jo e lart\u00eb<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n Paq\u00ebndrueshm\u00ebria e Nasdaq 100 \u00ebsht\u00eb mbi 20 p\u00ebr her\u00eb t\u00eb par\u00eb n\u00eb gjasht\u00eb muaj<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n Duke p\u00ebrjashtuar nj\u00eb p\u00ebrshkall\u00ebzim q\u00eb d\u00ebrgon \u00e7mimin e naft\u00ebs n\u00eb stratosfer\u00eb, stoqet do nxiten m\u00eb shum\u00eb gjat\u00eb jav\u00ebve t\u00eb ardhshme nga lajmet mbi fitimet e korporatave t\u00eb tremujorit t\u00eb par\u00eb sesa nga titujt e lajmeve nga Lindja e Mesme.<\/span><\/p>\n Sa i p\u00ebrket mediumit kritik sipas t\u00eb cilit lufta n\u00eb Lindjen e Mesme krijon d\u00ebme financiare gjetk\u00eb, \u00e7mimet e naft\u00ebs s\u00eb pap\u00ebrpunuar jan\u00eb rritur p\u00ebr pjes\u00ebn m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe t\u00eb k\u00ebtij viti, me Brent-in q\u00eb tani ka kaluar 90 dollar\u00eb p\u00ebr fu\u00e7i. Kjo nuk mund t\u00eb anashkalohet. <\/span><\/p>\n Megjithat\u00eb, \u00e7mimi ishte mbi 120 dollar\u00eb p\u00ebr pjes\u00ebn m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe t\u00eb vitit 2022. Nj\u00eb kthim n\u00eb ato nivele do ndryshonte thell\u00ebsisht ekonomin\u00eb globale, por nuk ka ende asnj\u00eb arsye t\u00eb ve\u00e7ant\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb parashikuar se kjo do t\u00eb ndodh\u00eb:<\/span><\/p>\n \u00c7mimet e naft\u00ebs: n\u00eb rritje, por ende jo n\u00eb ekstrem<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n Brent \u00ebsht\u00eb mbi 90 dollar\u00eb p\u00ebr fu\u00e7i p\u00ebr her\u00eb t\u00eb par\u00eb q\u00eb nga tetori<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n Tregtar\u00ebt e naft\u00ebs<\/a> <\/span>do p\u00ebrcaktojn\u00eb drejtimin p\u00ebr tregjet e tjera n\u00eb afatin e af\u00ebrt. Megjithat\u00eb, jan\u00eb n\u00eb loj\u00eb tensione t\u00eb tjera t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme p\u00ebrve\u00e7 Lindjes s\u00eb Mesme. Kthimi i k\u00ebrkes\u00ebs n\u00eb SHBA dhe Kin\u00eb ka r\u00ebnd\u00ebsi. <\/span><\/p>\n Po k\u00ebshtu edhe d\u00ebshira e eksportuesve kryesor\u00eb n\u00eb OPEC+ p\u00ebr t\u00eb mos destabilizuar bot\u00ebn. Ata tashm\u00eb po kufizojn\u00eb prodhimin, k\u00ebshtu q\u00eb mund t\u00eb rrisin leht\u00ebsisht furnizimin p\u00ebrs\u00ebri n\u00eb rast t\u00eb nj\u00eb rritjeje. Si\u00e7 thekson<\/a> <\/span>Javier Blas, nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb e leht\u00eb p\u00ebr ta q\u00eb t\u00eb mbajn\u00eb nj\u00eb \u00e7mim q\u00eb i shp\u00ebrblen mir\u00eb pa d\u00ebmtuar ekonomin\u00eb, por ata me siguri mund ta provojn\u00eb.<\/span><\/p>\n Vlen gjithashtu t’i kushtohet v\u00ebmendje \u00e7mimeve t\u00eb gazit natyror n\u00eb Evrop\u00eb, gj\u00eb q\u00eb shkaktoi nj\u00eb kriz\u00eb n\u00eb shkall\u00eb t\u00eb gjer\u00eb dy vjet m\u00eb par\u00eb. Sulmet e fundit ruse n\u00eb infrastruktur\u00ebn ukrainase kan\u00eb rritur \u00e7mimet standarde.<\/span><\/p>\n N\u00ebse kjo shkon shum\u00eb m\u00eb tej, ajo me t\u00eb v\u00ebrtet\u00eb mund t\u00eb mjegulloj\u00eb pamjen p\u00ebr bankat qendrore t\u00eb rajonit. Si\u00e7 \u00ebsht\u00eb tani, kontratat e s\u00eb ardhmes s\u00eb gazit jan\u00eb ende rreth 90% n\u00ebn kulmin e tyre n\u00eb 2022:<\/span><\/p>\n Sa i p\u00ebrket \u00e7\u00ebshtjes qendrore t\u00eb politik\u00ebs monetare dhe normave, pasiguria gjeopolitike n\u00eb p\u00ebrgjith\u00ebsi \u2013 dhe ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht pik\u00ebpyetjet mbi \u00e7mimin e naft\u00ebs \u2013 e b\u00ebjn\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb v\u00ebshtir\u00eb leht\u00ebsimin e saj. <\/span><\/p>\n Sipas Neil Shearing, kryeekonomist i \u201cCapital Economics\u201d, nj\u00eb rritje e \u00e7mimeve t\u00eb naft\u00ebs \u201cdo nd\u00ebrlikonte p\u00ebrpjekjet p\u00ebr t\u00eb rikthyer inflacionin n\u00eb objektiv n\u00eb ekonomit\u00eb e zhvilluara, por do kishte nj\u00eb ndikim material n\u00eb vendimet e bank\u00ebs qendrore vet\u00ebm n\u00ebse \u00e7mimet m\u00eb t\u00eb larta t\u00eb energjis\u00eb rrjedhin n\u00eb inflacionin baz\u00eb”.<\/span><\/p>\n \u00a0Ashtu si rritja e naft\u00ebs pas pushtimit t\u00eb Ukrain\u00ebs i detyroi bankat qendrore t\u00eb nd\u00ebrmarrin veprime m\u00eb t\u00eb hershme dhe m\u00eb drastike, ekziston rreziku q\u00eb kjo gjendje t\u00eb shkurtoj\u00eb shpresat p\u00ebr t\u00eb ulur normat – por kjo nuk ka ndodhur ende.<\/span><\/p>\n Kjo mund t\u00eb mbivler\u00ebsohet. Rregulli i p\u00ebrgjithsh\u00ebm i Shearing \u00ebsht\u00eb se nj\u00eb rritje prej 10% e naft\u00ebs i shton 0.1% deri n\u00eb 0.2% inflacionit total n\u00eb per\u00ebndim. Kjo do t\u00eb thot\u00eb se rritja e deritanishme do t’i shtoj\u00eb rreth 0.1% inflacionit total n\u00eb k\u00ebto ekonomi, gj\u00eb q\u00eb nuk do mjaftonte p\u00ebr t\u00eb ndryshuar drejtimin e politik\u00ebs.<\/span><\/p>\n Ai tha:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n \u201cNdjesia jon\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb se ngjarjet n\u00eb Lindjen e Mesme do t’i shtojn\u00eb arsyet q\u00eb Rezerva Federale e SHBA-s\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrshtat\u00eb nj\u00eb qasje m\u00eb t\u00eb kujdesshme ndaj uljes s\u00eb normave, por ato nuk do ta pengojn\u00eb at\u00eb t\u00eb ulet krejt\u00ebsisht. Ne presim l\u00ebvizjen e par\u00eb n\u00eb shtator. Dhe, duke supozuar se \u00e7mimet e energjis\u00eb nuk do rriten gjat\u00eb muajit t\u00eb ardhsh\u00ebm, ne mendojm\u00eb se si Banka Qendrore Evropiane edhe Banka e Anglis\u00eb do ulin n\u00eb qershor.\u201d<\/em><\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n Deri tani, tregjet jan\u00eb t\u00eb justifikuara p\u00ebr t\u00eb vler\u00ebsuar k\u00ebt\u00eb rezultat relativisht t\u00eb mir\u00eb. Por fuqia e Kurthit t\u00eb Eskilit duhet t\u00eb nxis\u00eb akoma tregjet e rrezikut t\u00eb ecin me m\u00eb shum\u00eb kujdes.<\/span><\/p>\n K\u00ebshilla mbijetese<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n \u00cbsht\u00eb koha p\u00ebr nj\u00eb doz\u00eb cil\u00ebsimesh t\u00eb lutjes \u201cDona Nobis Pacem\u201d (Na jep paqe). \u00cbsht\u00eb v\u00ebn\u00eb nga, nd\u00ebr t\u00eb tjera, Mozart<\/a>, Ralph Vaughan Williams<\/a><\/span>, Josquin Desprez<\/a><\/span>, Arvo Part<\/a><\/span> (teknikisht ky \u00ebsht\u00eb Da Pacem Domine, por shpirti \u00ebsht\u00eb i nj\u00ebjt\u00eb), Haydn<\/a> <\/span>dhe Max Richter.<\/a><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n Mund t’ju p\u00eblqej\u00eb ky version<\/a><\/span>, i k\u00ebnduar nga k\u00ebng\u00ebtar\u00eb t\u00eb rinj gjerman\u00eb p\u00ebr Ukrain\u00ebn dhe m\u00eb e madhja nga t\u00eb gjitha, v\u00ebnia n\u00eb sken\u00eb n\u00eb Mesh\u00ebn B Minor nga Bach<\/a><\/span>. Dyshoj se kjo muzik\u00eb do sjell\u00eb paqe n\u00eb bot\u00eb pa m\u00eb shum\u00eb ndihm\u00eb materiale. Por duhet t\u00eb sjell\u00eb pak qet\u00ebsi p\u00ebr ata q\u00eb e d\u00ebgjojn\u00eb.<\/span><\/p>\n\n
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