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N\u00eb fillim t\u00eb k\u00ebtij viti, nj\u00eb pik\u00ebpamje e zakonshme ishte se lufta n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb po kalonte n\u00eb ng\u00ebr\u00e7, pas d\u00ebshtimit t\u00eb kund\u00ebrofensiv\u00ebs ukrainase ver\u00ebn e kaluar. <\/span><\/p>\n Kjo tani duket shum\u00eb optimiste. Ekziston nj\u00eb mund\u00ebsi alarmante q\u00eb nj\u00eb sulm i madh ruse n\u00eb muajt e ardhsh\u00ebm mund t\u00eb godas\u00eb mbrojtjen e Ukrain\u00ebs dhe t\u00eb hyj\u00eb thell\u00eb n\u00eb vend.<\/span><\/p>\n Q\u00eb nga r\u00ebnia e Avdiivkas n\u00eb shkurt, nj\u00eb qytet ku forcat ukrainase e ruse u p\u00ebrlesh\u00ebn ashp\u00ebr n\u00eb provinc\u00ebn Donetsk, forcat ruse shtuar presionin n\u00ebp\u00ebr disa nyja n\u00eb Ukrain\u00ebn lindore. <\/span><\/p>\n Edhe pse Rusia pagoi nj\u00eb \u00e7mim t\u00eb lart\u00eb me shum\u00eb ushtar\u00eb e pajisje t\u00eb humbura p\u00ebr t\u00eb marr\u00eb Avdiivk\u00ebn – deri n\u00eb 17,000 ushtar\u00eb mund t\u00eb jen\u00eb vrar\u00eb dhe qindra tanke dhe automjete t\u00eb tjera t\u00eb blinduara luftarake jan\u00eb shkat\u00ebrruar – forcat e saj po shtyjn\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb n\u00eb per\u00ebndim t\u00eb qytetit n\u00eb nj\u00eb p\u00ebrpjekje p\u00ebr t\u00eb parandaluar Ukrain\u00ebn q\u00eb t\u00eb krijoj\u00eb linja m\u00eb t\u00eb forta mbrojt\u00ebse atje.<\/span><\/p>\n Deri tani, ata kan\u00eb p\u00ebrparuar vet\u00ebm shtat\u00eb deri n\u00eb dhjet\u00eb kilometra n\u00eb rastin m\u00eb t\u00eb mir\u00eb. Por nj\u00eb shtytje m\u00eb e madhe pritet n\u00eb ver\u00eb.<\/span><\/p>\n “Pes\u00eb deri n\u00eb gjasht\u00eb muajt e ardhsh\u00ebm mund t\u00eb jen\u00eb kritik\u00eb,”<\/em> thot\u00eb Konrad Muzyka, nj\u00eb analist n\u00eb \u2018Rochan Consulting\u2019 dhe autor i faqes s\u00eb internetit “Ukraine Conflict Monitor”. Prioritetet p\u00ebr Ukrain\u00ebn, sipas Michael Kofman i \u2018Carnegie Endo\u00ebment for International Peace\u2019, jan\u00eb “fuqia ushtarake, ajo pun\u00ebtore, fortifikimet dhe municionet”.<\/span><\/p>\n Ukraina ka b\u00ebr\u00eb mrekulli n\u00eb zmbrapsjen e flot\u00ebs ruse t\u00eb Detit t\u00eb Zi dhe rihapjen e eksporteve t\u00eb grurit nga Odessa. Dhe po kryen nj\u00eb fushat\u00eb ajrore kund\u00ebr objektivave t\u00eb infrastruktur\u00ebs n\u00eb Rusi, ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht rafinerive t\u00eb naft\u00ebs, duke p\u00ebrdorur drone t\u00eb prodhuar n\u00eb sht\u00ebpi. Po e godet Rusin\u00eb aq fort sa SHBA-ja \u00ebsht\u00eb shqet\u00ebsuar p\u00ebr \u00e7mimin global t\u00eb naft\u00ebs. Por kjo mbetet kryesisht nj\u00eb luft\u00eb tok\u00ebsore.<\/span><\/p>\n Ukraina po vuan nga mungesa e madhe e municioneve, prandaj u detyrua t\u00eb t\u00ebrhiqej nga Avdiivka. Me p\u00ebrdorimin e frytsh\u00ebm t\u00eb dron\u00ebve, ukrainasit kan\u00eb qen\u00eb n\u00eb gjendje t\u00eb kompensojn\u00eb pjes\u00ebrisht predhat q\u00eb i kan\u00eb me racion. <\/span><\/p>\n Por dron\u00ebt nuk mund ta p\u00ebrqendrojn\u00eb zjarrin ashtu si\u00e7 mundet artileria. Bllokimi i paket\u00ebs s\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetjes ushtarake prej 61 miliard\u00eb dollar\u00ebsh t\u00eb administrat\u00ebs Biden nga republikan\u00ebt q\u00eb jan\u00eb pro-Donald Trump n\u00eb Kongres q\u00eb nga viti i kaluar, ka pasur pasoja t\u00eb drejtp\u00ebrdrejta n\u00eb fush\u00ebn e betej\u00ebs. Po k\u00ebshtu ka pasur ndikim edhe d\u00ebshtimi i nj\u00eb plani t\u00eb BE-s\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb siguruar m\u00eb shum\u00eb se gjysm\u00ebn e miliona predhave q\u00eb kishte premtuar t\u00eb dor\u00ebzonte deri n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb muaj.<\/span><\/p>\n N\u00eb gjith\u00eb frontin, Rusia po gjuan t\u00eb pakt\u00ebn pes\u00eb predha p\u00ebr \u00e7do predh\u00eb ukrainase. Edhe pse projektligji p\u00ebr mb\u00ebshtetjen e administrat\u00ebs Biden mbetet peng i politik\u00ebs elektorale, Evropa po p\u00ebrballet me vones\u00eb ndaj sfid\u00ebs. <\/span><\/p>\n Me Rusin\u00eb q\u00eb tani prodhon rreth 3 milion\u00eb predha artilerie n\u00eb vit dhe merr rezerva shtes\u00eb nga Koreja e Veriut dhe Irani, Evropa pret t\u00eb jet\u00eb n\u00eb gjendje t\u00eb prodhoj\u00eb vet\u00ebm 1.4 milion\u00eb predha n\u00eb vit deri n\u00eb fund t\u00eb vitit 2024, duke u rritur n\u00eb 2 milion\u00eb n\u00eb fund t\u00eb vitit t\u00eb ardhsh\u00ebm.<\/span><\/p>\n Perspektiva m\u00eb e mir\u00eb p\u00ebr zbutjen e gjendjes s\u00eb v\u00ebshtir\u00eb t\u00eb Ukrain\u00ebs \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb nism\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb cil\u00ebn qeveria \u00e7eke ka punuar n\u00eb heshtje q\u00eb nga fillimi i luft\u00ebs. \u00c7ek\u00ebt kan\u00eb k\u00ebrkuar n\u00eb gjith\u00eb bot\u00ebn p\u00ebr furnizime municionesh dhe tani kan\u00eb marr\u00eb rreth 800,000 predha. <\/span><\/p>\n Disa vende, p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb Gjermanin\u00eb, Holand\u00ebn, Danimark\u00ebn dhe Kanadan\u00eb, kan\u00eb grumbulluar para p\u00ebr t\u00eb ndihmuar n\u00eb pages\u00ebn e tyre. N\u00ebse 3 miliard\u00eb euro do mund t\u00eb mblidheshin s\u00eb bashku, thon\u00eb \u00e7ek\u00ebt, ata mund t\u00eb kapnin rreth 1.5 milion\u00eb predha.<\/span><\/p>\n Nico Lange, nj\u00eb ekspert i Ukrain\u00ebs, i cili \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb ish-zyrtar n\u00eb Ministrin\u00eb gjermane t\u00eb Mbrojtjes, thot\u00eb se disa prej predhave kan\u00eb filluar t\u00eb mb\u00ebrrijn\u00eb, megjith\u00ebse n\u00eb sasi t\u00eb vogla. Ata, shton ai, do u japin trupave n\u00eb front “sadopak \u200b\u200bfrym\u00ebmarrje” gjat\u00eb dy muajve t\u00eb ardhsh\u00ebm.<\/span><\/p>\n Llojet e tjera t\u00eb municioneve jan\u00eb gjithashtu n\u00eb munges\u00eb. Ukraina ka jasht\u00ebzakonisht shum\u00eb pak sisteme t\u00eb mbrojtjes ajrore. Nat\u00ebn e 21-22 marsit, q\u00eb pa sulmin m\u00eb t\u00eb madh n\u00eb sistemin energjetik t\u00eb Ukrain\u00ebs q\u00eb nga fillimi i luft\u00ebs, nga 151 raketa dhe drone t\u00eb l\u00ebshuar nga Rusia, vet\u00ebm 92 u kap\u00ebn. Q\u00eb at\u00ebher\u00eb, ka pasur sulme t\u00eb tjera n\u00eb infrastruktur\u00ebn kritike n\u00eb qytetin per\u00ebndimor t\u00eb Lviv dhe n\u00eb Kiev.<\/span><\/p>\n Ukraina gjithashtu ka nevoj\u00eb urgjente p\u00ebr m\u00eb shum\u00eb m\u00ebnyra p\u00ebr t\u00eb goditur objektivat n\u00eb Krime dhe qendrat logjistike thell\u00eb pas linjave t\u00eb armikut. Besohet se ajo ka p\u00ebrdorur nj\u00eb pjes\u00eb t\u00eb madhe t\u00eb raketave \u2018Storm Shado\u00eb\u2019 dhe \u2018Scalp\u2019 q\u00eb Britania dhe Franca dhuruan. Ata treguan p\u00ebrs\u00ebri vler\u00ebn e tyre m\u00eb 24 mars, kur dy anije t\u00eb tjera t\u00eb m\u00ebdha ruse u godit\u00ebn n\u00eb portin e pushtuar t\u00eb Sevastopolit. <\/span><\/p>\n Kancelari i Gjermanis\u00eb, Olaf Scholz, nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb shprehur ende lidhur me furnizimin e raketave edhe m\u00eb t\u00eb fuqishme \u2018Taurus\u2019. Ukrain\u00ebs po i mbarojn\u00eb edhe tanket dhe mjete t\u00eb tjera luftarake, megjith\u00ebse ka disa shpresa se SHBA-ja mund t’i d\u00ebrgoj\u00eb asaj qindra automjete luftarake \u2018Bradley\u2019 pa pasur nevoj\u00eb p\u00ebr m\u00eb shum\u00eb para nga Kongresi.<\/span><\/p>\n N\u00ebse Ukraina \u00ebsht\u00eb e varur nga aleat\u00ebt e saj p\u00ebr t’i siguruar asaj pjes\u00ebn m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe t\u00eb materialit q\u00eb i nevojitet p\u00ebr t\u00eb luftuar ajo duhet t\u00eb mbaj\u00eb p\u00ebrgjegj\u00ebsin\u00eb se \u00ebsht\u00eb e ngadalt\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb rekrutuar m\u00eb shum\u00eb ushtar\u00eb. <\/span><\/p>\n Mosha mesatare e trupave t\u00eb Ukrain\u00ebs q\u00eb sh\u00ebrbejn\u00eb n\u00eb vij\u00ebn e frontit \u00ebsht\u00eb 43 vje\u00e7. Edhe pse morali, sipas raporteve, mbetet p\u00ebrgjith\u00ebsisht i lart\u00eb, shum\u00eb prej tyre jan\u00eb t\u00eb rraskapitur dhe kan\u00eb nevoj\u00eb p\u00ebr rotacion.<\/span><\/p>\n Me premtimin e pagesave t\u00eb larta q\u00eb jan\u00eb \u00ebnd\u00ebrr p\u00ebr shum\u00eb familje n\u00eb pjes\u00eb t\u00eb varfra t\u00eb vendit, Rusia ka m\u00eb pak v\u00ebshtir\u00ebsi n\u00eb rekrutimin e ushtar\u00ebve me kontrat\u00eb. Muzyka mendon se ka nj\u00eb fluks t\u00eb vazhduesh\u00ebm prej rreth 30,000 ushtar\u00ebsh t\u00eb rinj n\u00eb front \u00e7do muaj, mjaftuesh\u00ebm p\u00ebr t\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetur t\u00eb ardhmen e parashikueshme p\u00ebr luftimet ku humbin jet\u00ebn shum\u00eb ushtar\u00eb si ata q\u00eb u p\u00ebrdor\u00ebn \u00e7do dit\u00eb n\u00eb betej\u00ebn p\u00ebr Avdviikan. <\/span><\/p>\n Pas zgjedhjeve presidenciale, ministri rus i Mbrojtjes, Sergei Shoigu, njoftoi m\u00eb 20 mars formimin e dy ushtrive t\u00eb reja, t\u00eb cilat do k\u00ebrkojn\u00eb 300,000-400,000 ushtar\u00eb shtes\u00eb.<\/span><\/p>\n Pavar\u00ebsisht ngurrimit politik, \u00ebsht\u00eb e qart\u00eb se Ukraina duhet t\u00eb mobilizohet n\u00eb nj\u00eb shkall\u00eb shum\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb gjer\u00eb se sa lejohet nga ligji n\u00eb fuqi, q\u00eb nuk lejon rekrutim t\u00eb askujt n\u00ebn mosh\u00ebn 27 vje\u00e7. N\u00eb dhjetor, komandanti i p\u00ebrgjithsh\u00ebm i Ukrain\u00ebs, Valery Zaluzhny, k\u00ebrkoi p\u00ebr t\u00eb rekrutuar edhe 400,000 ushtar\u00eb t\u00eb tjer\u00eb, por, duke k\u00ebrkuar m\u00eb shum\u00eb holl\u00ebsi, Zelensky kund\u00ebrshtoi t\u00eb n\u00ebnshkruante nj\u00eb projektligj q\u00eb do e kishte ulur mosh\u00ebn e regjistrimit n\u00eb 25 vje\u00e7.<\/span><\/p>\n Projektligji i mobilizimit q\u00eb po kalon aktualisht n\u00eb parlament i \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00ebnshtruar shum\u00eb ndryshimeve, duke p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb k\u00ebrkesat q\u00eb ushtar\u00ebt duhet t\u00eb nd\u00ebrrohen \u00e7do gjasht\u00eb muaj dhe t\u00eb lejohen t\u00eb largohen nga ushtria pas tre vjet\u00ebsh sh\u00ebrbimi. <\/span><\/p>\n Ai mund t\u00eb miratohet n\u00eb fillim t\u00eb prillit. Rekrut\u00ebt e rinj do duhet t\u00eb p\u00ebrpunohen dhe st\u00ebrviten, megjithat\u00eb, kjo mund t\u00eb zgjas\u00eb disa muaj. Nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb, komandanti i ri i p\u00ebrgjithsh\u00ebm, Oleksandr Syrsky, po kryen nj\u00eb kontroll p\u00ebr t\u00eb par\u00eb pse nga nj\u00eb ushtri prej 900,000 trupash, vet\u00ebm 300,000 ushtar\u00eb kan\u00eb par\u00eb n\u00eb t\u00eb v\u00ebrtet\u00eb luftime.<\/span><\/p>\n As Zelensky nuk ka shum\u00eb justifikime p\u00ebr vonesat n\u00eb nd\u00ebrtimin e fortifikimeve mbrojt\u00ebse, ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht pasi rus\u00ebt treguan n\u00eb ver\u00eb se fortifikimet n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb luft\u00eb kan\u00eb p\u00ebrpar\u00ebsin\u00eb me ushtar\u00ebt q\u00eb veprojn\u00eb nga linja t\u00eb p\u00ebrgatitura mir\u00eb.<\/span><\/p>\n Vet\u00ebm n\u00eb n\u00ebntor presidenti njoftoi fillimin e nd\u00ebrtimit t\u00eb madh t\u00eb p\u00ebrforcimeve n\u00eb linjat mbrojt\u00ebse duke \u00a0pun\u00ebsuar si trupa inxhinierike ashtu edhe kontraktor\u00eb civil\u00eb. <\/span><\/p>\n Nj\u00eb sistem i integruar mbrojt\u00ebs, duke p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb kanalet antitank, pengesat “dh\u00ebmb\u00ebt e dragoit”, fushat e minuara, poligon\u00ebt e qitjes dhe punimet tok\u00ebsore p\u00ebr t\u00eb siguruar mbrojtje p\u00ebr k\u00ebmb\u00ebsorin\u00eb, vet\u00ebm tani po merr form\u00eb ngadal\u00eb.<\/span><\/p>\n