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Euro ka prekur nj\u00eb minimum t\u00eb ri historik n\u00eb kursin e k\u00ebmbimit me lekun.<\/span><\/p>\n Sipas kursit zyrtar t\u00eb k\u00ebmbimit t\u00eb Bank\u00ebs s\u00eb Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb, euro u k\u00ebmbye t\u00eb mart\u00ebn me 112.63 lek\u00eb, n\u00eb r\u00ebnie t\u00eb m\u00ebtejshme me 0.25 pik\u00eb krahasuar me fundin e jav\u00ebs s\u00eb kaluar.<\/span><\/p>\n Sipas agjent\u00ebve t\u00eb tregut valutor, faktori kryesor q\u00eb po zhvler\u00ebson euron \u00ebsht\u00eb oferta e lart\u00eb e monedh\u00ebs europiane. Ata shprehen se volumi i blerjeve t\u00eb euros nga agjent\u00ebt e k\u00ebmbimit valutor \u00ebsht\u00eb shum\u00eb m\u00eb i lart\u00eb n\u00eb raport me at\u00eb t\u00eb shitjeve dhe kjo po shkakton nj\u00eb r\u00ebnie t\u00eb vazhdueshme dhe progresive t\u00eb kursit t\u00eb monedh\u00ebs europiane. Krahasuar me t\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00ebn periudh\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00eb viti m\u00eb par\u00eb, kursi i k\u00ebmbimit t\u00eb euros kundrejt lekut \u00ebsht\u00eb zhvler\u00ebsuar me af\u00ebrsisht 7%.<\/span><\/p>\n Me afrimin e sezonit turistik, perspektivat e kursit t\u00eb k\u00ebmbimit duket se anojn\u00eb gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb shum\u00eb drejt nj\u00eb zhvler\u00ebsimi t\u00eb m\u00ebtejsh\u00ebm t\u00eb monedh\u00ebs europiane.<\/span><\/p>\n N\u00eb analiz\u00ebn e fundit p\u00ebr ecurin\u00eb e kursit t\u00eb k\u00ebmbimit t\u00eb k\u00ebtij muaji, Raiffeisen Research i ka rishikuar p\u00ebr posht\u00eb parashikimet e kursit t\u00eb k\u00ebmbimit euro-lek p\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb vit. Raiffeisen Research parashikon q\u00eb kursi i k\u00ebmbimit t\u00eb euros t\u00eb bjer\u00eb n\u00eb nivelin 112 lek\u00ebve deri n\u00eb muajin shtator dhe ta mbyll\u00eb vitin 2023 pran\u00eb nivelit t\u00eb 112.4 lek\u00ebve.<\/span><\/p>\n Ky parashikim mb\u00ebshtetet n\u00eb pozitat tashm\u00eb t\u00eb forta t\u00eb lekut, pritjet p\u00ebr nj\u00eb sezon t\u00eb mir\u00eb turistik, t\u00eb shoq\u00ebruar me d\u00ebrgesa t\u00eb konsiderueshme t\u00eb emigrant\u00ebve dhe nivele t\u00eb larta t\u00eb investimeve t\u00eb huaja direkte.<\/span><\/p>\n N\u00eb fakt, r\u00ebnia e dit\u00ebve t\u00eb fundit sugjeron q\u00eb gjat\u00eb sezonit veror kursi i euros mund t\u00eb bjer\u00eb edhe m\u00eb posht\u00eb se parashikimet e fundit t\u00eb Raiffeisen Research.<\/span><\/p>\n Forcimi i lekut n\u00eb kursin e k\u00ebmbimit me euron \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb faktor me ndikim t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsish\u00ebm n\u00eb ekonomin\u00eb shqiptare. Nj\u00eb monedh\u00eb vendase m\u00eb e fort\u00eb i b\u00ebn m\u00eb t\u00eb lira importet e mallrave dhe t\u00eb sh\u00ebrbimeve nga jasht\u00eb. Forcimi i monedh\u00ebs vendase ka qen\u00eb nj\u00eb faktor q\u00eb i ka zbutur pjes\u00ebrisht presionet e jashtme inflacioniste dhe ka ndikuar, mes faktor\u00ebve t\u00eb tjer\u00eb, q\u00eb Shqip\u00ebria t\u00eb ket\u00eb nivele inflacioni m\u00eb t\u00eb ul\u00ebt krahasuar me ekonomit\u00eb e tjera t\u00eb rajonit dhe Europ\u00ebs.<\/span><\/p>\n Efekti i mbi\u00e7mimit t\u00eb lekut ndaj euros ka qen\u00eb pozitiv edhe p\u00ebr t\u00eb huamar\u00ebrsit n\u00eb valut\u00eb t\u00eb huaj me t\u00eb ardhura n\u00eb lek\u00eb, duke filluar nga qeveria shqiptare, deri te huamarr\u00ebsit private. Sipas vler\u00ebsimeve t\u00eb Bank\u00ebs s\u00eb Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb, forcimi i kursit t\u00eb k\u00ebmbimit t\u00eb lekut n\u00eb vitin 2022 ka sjell\u00eb reduktimin me rreth 37 miliard\u00eb lek\u00eb t\u00eb vler\u00ebs s\u00eb borxhit publik n\u00eb vitin 2022.<\/span><\/p>\n Nga ana tjet\u00ebr, forcimi i lekut po jep nj\u00eb ndikim gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb negative p\u00ebr sektor\u00ebt eksportues t\u00eb ekonomis\u00eb, q\u00eb i kan\u00eb t\u00eb ardhurat p\u00ebrgjith\u00ebsisht n\u00eb lek\u00eb, nd\u00ebrsa shpenzimet n\u00eb monedh\u00ebn vendase. Nj\u00eb monedh\u00eb vendase e mbi\u00e7muar \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb faktor me ndikim negativ n\u00eb konkurrueshm\u00ebrin\u00eb e eksporteve t\u00eb mallrave dhe sh\u00ebrbimeve.<\/span><\/p>\n Forcimi i lekut ndaj euros dhe shumic\u00ebs s\u00eb valutave t\u00eb huaja ka dh\u00ebn\u00eb nj\u00eb ndikim negativ edhe n\u00eb bilancin e Bank\u00ebs s\u00eb Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb. Vitin e kaluar, banka qendrore p\u00ebsoi nj\u00eb humbje prej af\u00ebrsisht 14.5 miliard\u00eb lek\u00ebsh nga zhvler\u00ebsimi i monedhave t\u00eb rezerv\u00ebs valutore kundrejt lekut. <\/span><\/p>\n Humbjet e Bank\u00ebs s\u00eb Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb nga ulja e vler\u00ebs s\u00eb valut\u00ebs mbulohen me transferim ose emetim letrash borxhi nga qeveria, ndaj kan\u00eb nj\u00eb ndikim negativ dhe n\u00eb nivelin e borxhit publik.<\/span><\/p>\n Megjithat\u00eb, p\u00ebr sa koh\u00eb q\u00eb efekti negativ n\u00eb bilancin e Bank\u00ebs s\u00eb Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb i ul\u00ebt se efekti pozitiv n\u00eb portofolin total t\u00eb borxhit n\u00eb valut\u00eb t\u00eb huaj, ndikimi i kursit t\u00eb k\u00ebmbimit mbi borxhin publik n\u00eb terma neto \u00ebsht\u00eb duksh\u00ebm pozitiv (rreth 23 miliard\u00eb lek\u00eb p\u00ebr vitin 2022, sipas vler\u00ebsimeve t\u00eb bank\u00ebs qendrore).<\/span><\/p>\n Gjithashtu, forcimi i lekut mund t\u00eb ket\u00eb nj\u00eb ndikim negativ n\u00eb t\u00eb ardhurat buxhetore, q\u00eb dominohen nga TVSH-ja dhe sidomos nga ajo e p\u00ebrfituar prej mallrave t\u00eb importuar. Vitin e kaluar, forcimi i lekut nuk pati nj\u00eb efekt t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsish\u00ebm negativ n\u00eb t\u00eb ardhura, p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb ndikimit shum\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb pozitiv nga rritja e \u00e7mimeve. Por, me frenimin e rritjes s\u00eb \u00e7mimeve, k\u00ebt\u00eb vit efekti i forcimit t\u00eb lekut mbi t\u00eb ardhurat buxhetore mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb m\u00eb i ndjesh\u00ebm.<\/span><\/p>\n
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