{"id":590842,"date":"2023-04-17T10:27:44","date_gmt":"2023-04-17T08:27:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/?p=590842"},"modified":"2023-04-17T11:25:38","modified_gmt":"2023-04-17T09:25:38","slug":"shifrat-e-sondazheve-te-biden-duken-te-zymta-ndersa-ai-pergatitet-per-oferten-per-rizgjedhje-politico","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/2023\/04\/17\/shifrat-e-sondazheve-te-biden-duken-te-zymta-ndersa-ai-pergatitet-per-oferten-per-rizgjedhje-politico\/","title":{"rendered":"Shifrat e sondazheve t\u00eb Biden duken t\u00eb zymta nd\u00ebrsa ai p\u00ebrgatit kandidatur\u00ebn p\u00ebr rizgjedhje – Politico","gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"rendered","format":"text"}]},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/span><\/p>\n

Joe Biden u b\u00eb president duke premtuar nj\u00eb kthes\u00eb 180 grad\u00eb nga Donald Trump. Por dy burrat kan\u00eb nj\u00eb gj\u00eb t\u00eb madhe t\u00eb p\u00ebrbashk\u00ebt: po ashtu vler\u00ebsimet e dob\u00ebta t\u00eb miratimit q\u00eb shkojn\u00eb n\u00eb fillimin e ofertave t\u00eb tyre p\u00ebr rizgjedhje.<\/span><\/p>\n

Biden nuk ka njoftuar ende zyrtarisht se do kandidoj\u00eb p\u00ebrs\u00ebri vitin e ardhsh\u00ebm, megjith\u00ebse ai ka th\u00ebn\u00eb se planifikon ta b\u00ebj\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb \u2018s\u00eb shpejti\u2019. Sondazhet tregojn\u00eb se vler\u00ebsimi i tij i miratimit po luhatet n\u00eb t\u00eb 40-at e ul\u00ebta, pik\u00ebrisht rreth pik\u00ebs ku disa nga paraardh\u00ebsit e tij, t\u00eb cil\u00ebve iu mohua mandati i dyt\u00eb, u ul\u00ebn n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb pik\u00eb t\u00eb presidenc\u00ebs s\u00eb tyre.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sipas FiveThirtyEight, vler\u00ebsimi mesatar i miratimit t\u00eb Biden q\u00ebndron n\u00eb 43 p\u00ebrqind, rreth 9 pik\u00eb m\u00eb i ul\u00ebt se vler\u00ebsimi i tij i mosmiratimit prej 52 p\u00ebrqind. Kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb vet\u00ebm 1 pik\u00eb m\u00eb e lart\u00eb se vler\u00ebsimi i miratimit t\u00eb Trumpit m\u00eb 15 Prill 2019, n\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00ebn pik\u00eb n\u00eb presidenc\u00ebn e tij.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u00ebrcaktimi i mas\u00ebs n\u00eb t\u00eb cil\u00ebn vler\u00ebsimi i dob\u00ebt i pun\u00ebs s\u00eb Bidenit e rrezikon ofert\u00ebn e tij t\u00eb mundshme p\u00ebr rizgjedhje nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb vet\u00ebm nj\u00eb ushtrim akademik. Nj\u00eb zhytje e thell\u00eb n\u00eb shifra zbulon se Biden nuk po lufton vet\u00ebm me t\u00eb pavarurit dhe mosmiratimin pothuajse unanim midis republikan\u00ebve. <\/span><\/p>\n

Ai \u00ebsht\u00eb gjithashtu dob\u00ebt mes demokrat\u00ebve dhe grupeve demografike me prirje t\u00eb majt\u00eb, nj\u00eb dob\u00ebsi q\u00eb sugjeron nj\u00eb entuziaz\u00ebm t\u00eb zvog\u00ebluar p\u00ebr kandidatur\u00ebn e tij – edhe pse \u00ebsht\u00eb di\u00e7ka q\u00eb mund t\u00eb mbulohet nga modelet e votimit partizan n\u00eb zgjedhjet e p\u00ebrgjithshme.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kjo p\u00ebr shkak se \u2018alternativa\u2019e mundshme ndaj Biden n\u00ebntorin e ardhsh\u00ebm mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb Trump, vler\u00ebsimet e favorizimit personal t\u00eb t\u00eb cilit mund t\u00eb jen\u00eb p\u00ebrgjith\u00ebsisht m\u00eb t\u00eb k\u00ebqija se ato t\u00eb Biden. Edhe pse Trump ka zgjeruar ep\u00ebrsin\u00eb e tij n\u00eb zgjedhjet presidenciale n\u00eb kampin republikan, ai mbetet m\u00eb pak i popullarizuar se pasardh\u00ebsi i tij i Zyr\u00ebs Ovale.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u00ebr Biden, sondazhi paraqet shenja serioze paralajm\u00ebruese dhe arsye p\u00ebr t\u00eb menduar se rreziku i tij mund t\u00eb mbivler\u00ebsohet.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vendi i dob\u00ebt i Biden n\u00eb histori<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Vler\u00ebsimi 43 p\u00ebr qind i miratimit t\u00eb Biden n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb pik\u00eb t\u00eb mandatit t\u00eb tij e vendos at\u00eb af\u00ebrsisht edhe me president\u00ebt e kaluar q\u00eb kan\u00eb fituar – Barack Obama (43 p\u00ebrqind), Ronald Regan (41 p\u00ebrqind) – dhe kan\u00eb humbur, si Trump (42 p\u00ebrqind) dhe Jimmy Carter (40 p\u00ebr qind).<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/span><\/p>\n

Por p\u00ebr t\u00eb n\u00ebnvizuar se si gj\u00ebrat mund t\u00eb ndryshojn\u00eb midis mesit t\u00eb prillit t\u00eb vitit para zgjedhjeve dhe n\u00ebntorit t\u00eb ardhsh\u00ebm, si George H.W. Bush dhe djali i tij, George W. Bush, kishin vler\u00ebsime t\u00eb larta t\u00eb miratimit n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb pik\u00eb. George H.W. Bush u hoq vet\u00ebm disa muaj nga operacioni i suksessh\u00ebm \u2018Stuhia e Shkret\u00ebtir\u00ebs\u2019 dhe kishte nj\u00eb vler\u00ebsim prej 77 p\u00ebr qind n\u00eb mes t\u00eb prillit, sipas Gallup, i cili ruan arkivat m\u00eb t\u00eb thella t\u00eb vler\u00ebsimeve t\u00eb t\u00eb presidencave.<\/span><\/p>\n

George H.W. Bush do vazhdonte t\u00eb fitonte vet\u00ebm 37 p\u00ebr qind t\u00eb votave n\u00eb nj\u00eb gar\u00eb trepal\u00ebshe me Bill Clinton (43 p\u00ebr qind) dhe Ross Perot t\u00eb pavarur (19 p\u00ebr qind), p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb problemeve ekonomike q\u00eb err\u00ebsuan merit\u00ebn q\u00eb ai kishte marr\u00eb nga lufta e par\u00eb n\u00eb Irak.<\/span><\/p>\n

George W. Bush, i biri, kishte nj\u00eb vler\u00ebsim prej 75 p\u00ebr qind t\u00eb miratimit n\u00eb nj\u00eb sondazh t\u00eb Gallup n\u00eb mesin e prillit 2003 – rreth nj\u00eb muaj pas Luft\u00ebs s\u00eb Dyt\u00eb n\u00eb Irak. Ai fitoi rizgjedhjen, megjith\u00ebse me vet\u00ebm 2 pik\u00eb p\u00ebrqindjeje ndaj demokratit John Kerry.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u00ebr Biden, jo vet\u00ebm q\u00eb 18 muaj jan\u00eb nj\u00eb koh\u00eb e gjat\u00eb, por ai p\u00ebrballet me sfida si t\u00eb jashtme ashtu edhe t\u00eb brendshme, duke p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb inflacionin ngadal\u00ebsues, por t\u00eb vazhduesh\u00ebm dhe nj\u00eb recesion t\u00eb mundsh\u00ebm ekonomik.<\/span><\/p>\n

Probleme me votuesit e l\u00ebkundur<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Biden e rr\u00ebzoi Trump-in nga Sht\u00ebpia e Bardh\u00eb fal\u00eb nj\u00eb koalicioni q\u00eb kombinoi t\u00eb gjith\u00eb baz\u00ebn demokratike me grupet kryesore t\u00eb l\u00ebvizjes q\u00eb nuk identifikohen me asnj\u00ebr\u00ebn pal\u00eb. Por tani t\u00eb dy blloqet tregojn\u00eb \u00e7arje t\u00eb konsiderueshme n\u00eb miratimin e Biden.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mes t\u00eb pavarurve, nj\u00eb grup q\u00eb Biden e fitoi me dy shifra n\u00eb vitin 2020, presidenti tani \u00ebsht\u00eb \u2018n\u00ebn uj\u00eb\u2019 me nj\u00eb diferenc\u00eb af\u00ebrsisht 2 me 1, sipas dy sondazheve t\u00eb publikuara n\u00eb fund t\u00eb marsit nga Fox Ne\u00ebs dhe Universiteti Quinnipiac.<\/span><\/p>\n

N\u00eb sondazhin e Fox News, vet\u00ebm 35 p\u00ebr qind e votuesve e miratuan pun\u00ebn q\u00eb Biden po b\u00ebn, nd\u00ebrsa 65 p\u00ebr qind nuk e miratuan. N\u00eb sondazhin e Quinnipiac, shifrat e Biden me t\u00eb pavarurit jan\u00eb edhe m\u00eb t\u00eb k\u00ebqija: vet\u00ebm 26 p\u00ebr qind e miratojn\u00eb dhe 67 p\u00ebr qind nuk e miratojn\u00eb.<\/span><\/p>\n

Biden \u00ebsht\u00eb 17 pik\u00eb \u2018n\u00ebn uj\u00eb\u2019 n\u00eb mesin e votuesve periferik\u00eb n\u00eb sondazhin e Fox News dhe 23 pik\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb sondazh t\u00eb Qendr\u00ebs K\u00ebrkimore Pew nga fundi i marsit dhe fillimi i prillit. Votuesit e periferis\u00eb jan\u00eb nj\u00eb grup q\u00eb Biden e fitoi ngusht\u00eb mbi Trump si n\u00eb sondazhin e daljes nga rrjeti ashtu edhe n\u00eb AP Votecast, nj\u00eb anket\u00eb votuesish e porositur nga Associated Press dhe Fox News.<\/span><\/p>\n

Biden fitoi t\u00eb moderuarit e vet\u00ebp\u00ebrshkruar me 20 deri n\u00eb 30 pik\u00eb n\u00eb vitin 2020, por i nj\u00ebjti grup \u00ebsht\u00eb i ndar\u00eb n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb barabart\u00eb p\u00ebr miratimin e tij t\u00eb pun\u00ebs, sipas sondazhit t\u00eb Fox News: 47 p\u00ebr qind miratojn\u00eb dhe 51 p\u00ebr qind nuk e miratojn\u00eb.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dob\u00ebsi mes demokrat\u00ebve dhe elektorateve themelore<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Perceptimet p\u00ebr performanc\u00ebn e pun\u00ebs s\u00eb Biden jan\u00eb unike t\u00eb vak\u00ebta midis votuesve baz\u00eb – demokrat\u00eb dhe grupe t\u00eb tjera demografike me prirje t\u00eb majt\u00eb – n\u00eb m\u00ebnyra q\u00eb paraardh\u00ebsit e tij m\u00eb t\u00eb fundit, Trump dhe Barack Obama, nuk i kan\u00eb p\u00ebrjetuar kurr\u00eb. Edhe pse frym\u00ebzuan armiq\u00ebsi midis an\u00ebtar\u00ebve t\u00eb partis\u00eb s\u00eb kund\u00ebrt, si Trump ashtu edhe Obama fituan t\u00eb nj\u00ebjtin nivel miratimi nga partia e tyre.<\/span><\/p>\n

Por kjo nuk po ndodh me Biden. Pothuajse t\u00eb gjith\u00eb republikan\u00ebt thon\u00eb se nuk e miratojn\u00eb performanc\u00ebn e tij n\u00eb pun\u00eb – 90 p\u00ebr qind ose m\u00eb shum\u00eb n\u00eb secilin nga tre sondazhet e p\u00ebrmendura m\u00eb sip\u00ebr – por edhe demokrat\u00ebt nuk po p\u00ebrgjigjen me miratimin e tyre.<\/span><\/p>\n

N\u00eb sondazhet e Fox News dhe Quinnipiac, miratimi i performanc\u00ebs s\u00eb pun\u00ebs s\u00eb Biden n\u00eb mesin e demokrat\u00ebve \u00ebsht\u00eb rreth 80 p\u00ebr qind. Sondazhi i Qendr\u00ebs K\u00ebrkimore Pew kombinon demokrat\u00ebt me t\u00eb pavarur t\u00eb cil\u00ebt thon\u00eb se anojn\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb nga Partia Demokratike – nj\u00eb grup i domosdosh\u00ebm p\u00ebr Biden – dhe e gjen vler\u00ebsimin e tij t\u00eb miratimit m\u00eb t\u00eb ul\u00ebt, n\u00eb 67 p\u00ebrqind.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u00ebr m\u00eb tep\u00ebr, Biden po lufton me n\u00ebngrupet kryesore t\u00eb baz\u00ebs demokratike. Ai fitoi rreth 9 n\u00eb 10 votues me ngjyr\u00eb n\u00eb vitin 2020, por vet\u00ebm 59 p\u00ebr qind e t\u00eb anketuarveme ngjyr\u00eb n\u00eb sondazhin e Qendr\u00ebs K\u00ebrkimore Pe\u00eb than\u00eb se e miratojn\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00ebn se si Biden po e trajton pun\u00ebn e tij si president.<\/span><\/p>\n

Deri m\u00eb tani, Biden nuk po p\u00ebrballet me nj\u00eb k\u00ebrc\u00ebnim t\u00eb besuesh\u00ebm p\u00ebr nominimin presidencial brenda Partis\u00eb Demokratike. N\u00ebse ai do hynte n\u00eb gar\u00eb, t\u00eb vetmit sfidues t\u00eb shpallur me t\u00eb cil\u00ebt do p\u00ebrballej jan\u00eb Marianne Williamson, e cila u largua nga gara e vitit 2020 p\u00ebrpara se t\u00eb fillonte votimi, dhe Robert F. Kennedy Jr., djali i senatorit, avokimi m\u00eb i spikatur publik i t\u00eb cilit n\u00eb vitet e fundit ka qen\u00eb kund\u00ebr vaksinimeve.<\/span><\/p>\n

Megjithat\u00eb, Biden p\u00ebrballet me nj\u00eb munges\u00eb t\u00eb ve\u00e7ant\u00eb – dhe pa precedent t\u00eb koh\u00ebve t\u00eb fundit – munges\u00ebn e entuziazmit p\u00ebr kandidatur\u00ebn e tij mes demokrat\u00ebve. N\u00eb nj\u00eb sondazh t\u00eb CNN nga muaji i kaluar, vet\u00ebm 68 p\u00ebr qind e demokrat\u00ebve than\u00eb se Biden e meriton t\u00eb rizgjedhet vitin e ardhsh\u00ebm.<\/span><\/p>\n

N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb, vler\u00ebsimi i miratimit t\u00eb Biden mund t\u00eb mbivler\u00ebsoj\u00eb pozicionin e tij elektoral: Rreth 1 n\u00eb 10 amerikan\u00eb q\u00eb thon\u00eb se e miratojn\u00eb pun\u00ebn e Bidenit, 11 p\u00ebr qind, thon\u00eb se nuk mendojn\u00eb se ai meriton t\u00eb zgjidhet. Me fjal\u00eb t\u00eb tjera, ata mendojn\u00eb se ai po b\u00ebn nj\u00eb pun\u00eb t\u00eb mir\u00eb, por ushqejn\u00eb dyshime p\u00ebr nj\u00eb mandat tjet\u00ebr.<\/span><\/p>\n

CNN vuri n\u00eb dukje se 11 p\u00ebr qind \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb p\u00ebrqindje m\u00eb e madhe sesa mbivendosja midis miratuesve t\u00eb Trump dhe Obam\u00ebs dhe atyre q\u00eb mendonin se e meritonin mandatin e dyt\u00eb. K\u00ebto shifra ishin 3 dhe 5 p\u00ebr qind p\u00ebr Trump dhe Obam\u00ebn, respektivisht.<\/span><\/p>\n

Por ka gjithashtu arsye p\u00ebr t\u00eb besuar se demokrat\u00ebt do kthehen \u2018n\u00eb sht\u00ebpi\u2019 n\u00ebntorin e ardhsh\u00ebm. Edhe pse vler\u00ebsimi i tij i miratimit dhe shifrat e rizgjedhjeve jan\u00eb vonuar, Biden \u00ebsht\u00eb ende i pal\u00ebkundur me Trump dhe guvernatorin republikan t\u00eb Florid\u00ebs Ron DeSantis q\u00eb pritet t\u00eb p\u00ebrballen p\u00ebr nominimin repiblikan – dhe duke fituar shumic\u00ebn e demokrat\u00ebve n\u00eb proces.<\/span><\/p>\n

N\u00eb sondazhin e Quinnipiac, pavar\u00ebsisht vler\u00ebsimit t\u00eb tij prej 80 p\u00ebr qind me votuesit demokrat\u00eb, Biden fiton 93 p\u00ebr qind t\u00eb demokrat\u00ebve n\u00eb nj\u00eb p\u00ebrballje me Trump dhe 94 p\u00ebr qind n\u00eb nj\u00eb p\u00ebrballje me DeSantis.<\/span><\/p>\n

VINI RE<\/strong><\/span>: Ky material \u00ebsht\u00eb pron\u00ebsi intelektuale e Politico<\/a><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

P\u00ebrgatiti p\u00ebr Hashtag.al,<\/span> K.Manjani<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false,"gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"rendered","format":"html"}]},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Joe Biden u b\u00eb president duke premtuar nj\u00eb kthes\u00eb 180 grad\u00eb nga Donald Trump. Por dy burrat kan\u00eb nj\u00eb gj\u00eb t\u00eb madhe t\u00eb p\u00ebrbashk\u00ebt: po ashtu vler\u00ebsimet e dob\u00ebta t\u00eb miratimit q\u00eb shkojn\u00eb n\u00eb fillimin e ofertave t\u00eb tyre p\u00ebr rizgjedhje. Biden nuk ka njoftuar ende zyrtarisht se do kandidoj\u00eb p\u00ebrs\u00ebri vitin e ardhsh\u00ebm, megjith\u00ebse […]<\/p>\n","protected":false,"gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"rendered","format":"html"}]},"author":51,"featured_media":590843,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-590842","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ballina"],"gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"link","format":"url"}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/590842","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/51"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=590842"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/590842\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/590843"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=590842"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=590842"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=590842"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}