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Nga STEPHEN BRYEN<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n N\u00ebn drejtimin e SHBA-s\u00eb, Ukraina po planifikon nj\u00eb kund\u00ebrsulm t\u00eb madh q\u00eb ka t\u00eb ngjar\u00eb t\u00eb nis\u00eb m\u00eb von\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb pranver\u00eb, kur fushat dhe rrug\u00ebt dyt\u00ebsore q\u00eb nuk jan\u00eb t\u00eb asfaltuara t\u00eb thahen. Aktualisht, shumica e automjeteve ushtarake nuk mund t\u00eb veprojn\u00eb n\u00eb fusha t\u00eb hapura dhe kan\u00eb v\u00ebshtir\u00ebsi n\u00eb rrug\u00ebt dyt\u00ebsore t\u00eb paasfaltuara.<\/span><\/p>\n Sipas dokumenteve t\u00eb zbuluara t\u00eb Pentagonit, Ukraina ka mbledhur dymb\u00ebdhjet\u00eb brigada p\u00ebr shtytjen e planifikuar ushtarake.<\/span><\/p>\n N\u00ebnt\u00eb nga dymb\u00ebdhjet\u00eb brigadat jan\u00eb t\u00eb pajisura me armatur\u00eb dhe artileri amerikane dhe evropiane dhe tre t\u00eb tjerat p\u00ebrb\u00ebhen nga pajisje m\u00eb t\u00eb vjetra me origjin\u00eb ruse, disa prej tyre t\u00eb modifikuara nga Ukraina.<\/span><\/p>\n Sipas dokumenteve t\u00eb zbuluara, Ukraina mund t\u00eb ket\u00eb p\u00ebrfitime t\u00eb m\u00ebdha nga ofensiva e saj. Por duket se e v\u00ebrteta \u00ebsht\u00eb krejt ndryshe. Edhe Wall Street Journal, nj\u00eb nxit\u00ebse n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb, ka dyshime.<\/span><\/p>\n N\u00eb t\u00eb v\u00ebrtet\u00eb, vet\u00eb dokumentet tregojn\u00eb nj\u00eb histori t\u00eb ndryshme, gj\u00eb q\u00eb ndihmon n\u00eb shpjegimin e nxitimit t\u00eb \u00e7mendur t\u00eb administrat\u00ebs Biden p\u00ebr t\u00eb ndaluar shp\u00ebrndarjen e dokumenteve t\u00eb zbuluara.<\/span><\/p>\n Ofensiva e planifikuar e Ukrain\u00ebs n\u00eb fund t\u00eb pranver\u00ebs mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb nj\u00eb kurth vdekjeje p\u00ebr SHBA-n\u00eb, NATO-n dhe madje edhe aleat\u00ebt aziatik\u00eb t\u00eb Amerik\u00ebs.<\/span><\/p>\n Nj\u00eb brigad\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb zakonisht nga 3,000 deri n\u00eb 5,000 ushtar\u00eb. Duke p\u00ebrdorur numrin m\u00eb t\u00eb madh t\u00eb mundsh\u00ebm, Ukraina po planifikon t\u00eb p\u00ebrfshij\u00eb 60,000 trupa n\u00eb kund\u00ebrofensiv\u00eb, t\u00eb p\u00ebrqendruara n\u00eb nj\u00eb p\u00ebrpjekje p\u00ebr t\u00eb thyer kontrollin e Rusis\u00eb mbi portet e Detit t\u00eb Zi, p\u00ebrve\u00e7 Sevastopolit.<\/span><\/p>\n Megjithat\u00eb, ka t\u00eb ngjar\u00eb q\u00eb Ukraina t\u00eb nis\u00eb nj\u00eb lloj sulmi t\u00eb nj\u00ebkohsh\u00ebm ndaj Krimes\u00eb dhe Sevastopolit, n\u00ebse mundet.<\/span><\/p>\n Ofensiva \u00ebsht\u00eb kryesisht ideja e n\u00ebnsekretares amerikane t\u00eb Shtetit p\u00ebr \u00c7\u00ebshtjet Politike, Victoria Nuland. Ajo \u00ebsht\u00eb eminenca n\u00eb administrat\u00ebn e Bidenit kur b\u00ebhet fjal\u00eb p\u00ebr Ukrain\u00ebn.<\/span><\/p>\n Nuland nuk e ka fshehur aspak ambicien e saj q\u00eb Ukraina t\u00eb rimarr\u00eb Krimen\u00eb. Nuland, e cila \u00ebsht\u00eb ashp\u00ebrsisht anti-ruse dhe anti-Putin, do donte t\u00eb shihte kolapsin e qeveris\u00eb s\u00eb Putinit: arritja e k\u00ebsaj sipas k\u00ebndv\u00ebshtrimit t\u00eb saj k\u00ebrkon nj\u00eb fitore absolute nga Ukraina ndaj Rusis\u00eb, q\u00eb do t\u00eb thot\u00eb se Ukraina do rimarr\u00eb \u00e7do met\u00ebr katror t\u00eb tok\u00ebs s\u00eb saj t\u00eb humbur. Presidenti ukrainas Volodymyr Zelensky \u00ebsht\u00eb dakord.<\/span><\/p>\n Nuland ka nj\u00eb histori t\u00eb gjat\u00eb me Ukrain\u00ebn. N\u00eb administrat\u00ebn e Obam\u00ebs, ajo mb\u00ebshteti protestuesit e Maidan dhe p\u00ebrmbysjen e qeveris\u00eb s\u00eb zgjedhur ligj\u00ebrisht, por pro-ruse, t\u00eb Ukrain\u00ebs.<\/span><\/p>\n Ka regjistrime sekrete t\u00eb bisedave t\u00eb saj me ambasadorin e SHBA n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb n\u00eb at\u00eb koh\u00eb, duke vendosur se kush do ishte m\u00eb i miri p\u00ebr t\u00eb z\u00ebvend\u00ebsuar Viktor Janukovi\u00e7in, i cili n\u00eb at\u00eb koh\u00eb ishte president i Ukrain\u00ebs. <\/span><\/p>\n Janukovi\u00e7 u zgjodh n\u00eb vitin 2010 n\u00eb nj\u00eb balotazh midis tij dhe kryeministres Yulia Tymoshenko. Kund\u00ebrofensiva e planifikuar, pavar\u00ebsisht mb\u00ebshtetjes s\u00eb SHBA-s\u00eb dhe NATO-s, p\u00ebrballet me disa pengesa t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme. N\u00ebnt\u00eb brigadat e pajisura nga SHBA-NATO kan\u00eb m\u00eb pak forca t\u00eb blinduara se sa ishte premtuar nga NATO.<\/span><\/p>\n M\u00eb posht\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb se si duken k\u00ebto brigada ukrainase, sipas gazetave t\u00eb Pentagonit dhe si\u00e7 shpjegohet nga Simplicius n\u00eb blogun e tij Substack:<\/span><\/p>\n Brigada 116:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n 90 x BMP dor\u00ebzuar tashm\u00eb<\/span><\/p>\n 13 x T-64<\/span><\/p>\n 17 x tanke t\u00eb paspecifikuara, TBD<\/span><\/p>\n 12 x AS-90 (howitzer britanik 155 mm), d\u00ebrgesa n\u00eb prill<\/span><\/p>\n Brigada e 47-t\u00eb:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n 99 x M2 Bradley, dor\u00ebzimi n\u00eb fund t\u00eb marsit<\/span><\/p>\n 28 x T-55S (Sllovaki)<\/span><\/p>\n 12 x M109 (SPG amerikane 155 mm)<\/span><\/p>\n 12 x D-30 (artileri e vjet\u00ebr e t\u00ebrhequr sovjetike)<\/span><\/p>\n Brigada e 33-t\u00eb:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n 90 x MaxxPro (MRAPS amerikane), 20 n\u00eb dor\u00eb, pjesa tjet\u00ebr deri n\u00eb fund t\u00eb marsit<\/span><\/p>\n 14 x Leopard 2A6 (tanke gjermane, dor\u00ebzimi i vler\u00ebsuar n\u00eb prill)<\/span><\/p>\n 4 x Leopard 2A4 (tanke kanadeze), d\u00ebrgesa n\u00eb prill<\/span><\/p>\n 14 x Leopard 2A4 (tanke polake), dor\u00ebzimi mars<\/span><\/p>\n 12 x M119 (howitzer i leht\u00eb amerikan 105 mm)<\/span><\/p>\n Brigada e 21-t\u00eb:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n 20 x CVRT (British Scorpion i vjet\u00ebr me arm\u00eb 76mm), d\u00ebrgesa n\u00eb prill<\/span><\/p>\n 30 x Senator (IMV kanadeze, ekuivalente me Humvee, me\u00a0 mitraloz\u00eb t\u00eb leht\u00eb)<\/span><\/p>\n 20 x Bulldog, 21 x Husky (APC e leht\u00eb britanike, e ngjashme me M113), x 10 M113<\/span><\/p>\n 30 x T-64 (tanke ukrainas)<\/span><\/p>\n 10 x FH70 (howitzer i vjet\u00ebr 155 mm italian nga vitet 1960)<\/span><\/p>\n Brigada e 32-t\u00eb:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n 90 x MaxxPro (MRAP Amerikan)<\/span><\/p>\n 10 x T-72 (tanke Holand\u00eb), d\u00ebrgesa deri n\u00eb prill.<\/span><\/p>\n 20 x tanke t\u00eb paspecifikuara<\/span><\/p>\n 12 x D-30 (howitzer t\u00eb vjet\u00ebr sovjetik\u00eb)<\/span><\/p>\n Brigada e 37-t\u00eb:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n 30 x Mastiff\/Husky (British MRAP me arm\u00eb t\u00eb lehta), dor\u00ebzim n\u00eb prill<\/span><\/p>\n 30 x Mastiff\/Ujk (e nj\u00ebjta gj\u00eb), pritet dor\u00ebzimi<\/span><\/p>\n 30 x Senator (IMV kanadeze, ekuivalente me Humvee)<\/span><\/p>\n 14 x AMX-10 (\u2018tank\u2019 francez me rrota me arm\u00eb t\u00eb vog\u00ebl 105 mm), d\u00ebrges\u00eb n\u00eb mars<\/span><\/p>\n 16 x tanke t\u00eb paspecifikuara<\/span><\/p>\n 12 x D-30 (sovjetike), d\u00ebrgesa TBD.<\/span><\/p>\n Brigada 118:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n 90 x M113 (APC e epok\u00ebs s\u00eb Vietnamit amerikan)<\/span><\/p>\n 28 x T-72 (tanke polake), deri n\u00eb prill.<\/span><\/p>\n 6 x M109 (artileri amerikane 155 mm SPG), dor\u00ebzimi n\u00eb mars<\/span><\/p>\n 8 x FH70 (howitzer i vjet\u00ebr i t\u00ebrhequr italian), pritet n\u00eb prill<\/span><\/p>\n xxxx – Di\u00e7ka e palexueshme, por duket ndoshta m\u00eb shum\u00eb IMV<\/span><\/p>\n Brigada 117:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n 28 x Viking (Holand\u00eb, APC e vog\u00ebl)<\/span><\/p>\n 10\/20 x XA185 (Finland\u00eb, APC ekuivalente me BTR-82a, etj.), d\u00ebrgesa n\u00eb prill<\/span><\/p>\n 10 x Senator (Hummer Kanadez)<\/span><\/p>\n 31 x PT-91 (tank T-72 polak i p\u00ebrmir\u00ebsuar), d\u00ebrgesa n\u00eb prill<\/span><\/p>\n 12 x D-30 (artileri sovjetike)<\/span><\/p>\n (xxxx \u2013 Di\u00e7ka e palexueshme).<\/span><\/p>\n Brigada e 82-t\u00eb:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n 90 x Strykers (IFV Amerikane)<\/span><\/p>\n 40 x Marders (IFV gjermane), pritet n\u00eb prill<\/span><\/p>\n 14 x Challenger-2 (tanke britanike ), pritet n\u00eb prill<\/span><\/p>\n 24 x M119 (Howitzer i leht\u00eb nga SHBA 105 mm)<\/span><\/p>\n Si\u00e7 mund t\u00eb shihet, mbajtja e nj\u00eb grumbulli pajisjesh t\u00eb ndryshme nuk do t\u00eb jet\u00eb e leht\u00eb dhe riparimet n\u00eb terren do jen\u00eb pothuajse t\u00eb pamundura. Kjo do p\u00ebrb\u00ebj\u00eb nj\u00eb sfid\u00eb t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme p\u00ebr ukrainasit, t\u00eb cil\u00ebt gjithashtu nuk do t\u00eb ken\u00eb rezerva pajisjesh p\u00ebr t\u00eb z\u00ebvend\u00ebsuar at\u00eb q\u00eb mund t\u00eb humbet n\u00eb betej\u00eb.<\/span><\/p>\n (SHBA dhe evropian\u00ebt kan\u00eb ngritur disa stacione riparimi n\u00eb Poloni dhe Rumani, por k\u00ebto jan\u00eb larg zon\u00ebs s\u00eb konfliktit.)<\/span><\/p>\n Gazetat e Pentagonit na tregojn\u00eb gjithashtu se mbrojtja ajrore e Ukrain\u00ebs \u00ebsht\u00eb varf\u00ebruar keqazi, ose \u00ebsht\u00eb shkat\u00ebrruar nga rus\u00ebt ose nuk ka municion. Edhe p\u00ebrgjuesit p\u00ebr sistemin e mbrojtjes ajrore amerikane Patriot t\u00eb dor\u00ebzuar n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb nuk jan\u00eb aktualisht t\u00eb disponuesh\u00ebm, gj\u00eb\u00a0 q\u00eb do ndryshonte n\u00ebse raketat z\u00ebvend\u00ebsuese do vinin nga nj\u00ebsit\u00eb operacionale amerikane dhe evropiane.<\/span><\/p>\n Kjo do t\u00eb thot\u00eb se rus\u00ebt kan\u00eb nj\u00eb p\u00ebrpar\u00ebsi n\u00eb ep\u00ebrsin\u00eb ajrore t\u00eb cil\u00ebn, n\u00eb \u00e7do ofensiv\u00eb, do ta p\u00ebrdorin kund\u00ebr forcave ukrainase. Mungesa e municioneve \u00ebsht\u00eb gjithashtu nj\u00eb problem i madh p\u00ebr t\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetur ofensiv\u00ebn e premtuar, madje edhe p\u00ebr t\u00eb vazhduar luft\u00ebn m\u00eb tej.<\/span><\/p>\n Konsideroni p\u00ebr shembull municionet p\u00ebr artileri. SHBA-ja ka furnizuar me obus 155 mm, kryesisht me predha me eksploziv t\u00eb lart\u00eb. Howitzer M-777 ka nj\u00eb rreze prej rreth 21 kilometrash. Deri tani, Ukraina ka gjuajtur rreth 1 milion predha 155 mm, nj\u00eb sasi e madhe.<\/span><\/p>\n Sipas raportit t\u00eb Pentagonit, nuk ka asnj\u00eb furnizim n\u00eb linj\u00eb p\u00ebr momentin. Nd\u00ebrsa mund t\u00eb gjenden disa mij\u00ebra t\u00eb tjera, duke pasur parasysh shkall\u00ebn e madhe t\u00eb shpenzimeve nga ushtria ukrainase, \u00ebsht\u00eb e v\u00ebshtir\u00eb t\u00eb shihet se si 155 mm do ndihmoj\u00eb shum\u00eb n\u00eb ofensiv\u00ebn e planifikuar (duke supozuar se k\u00ebto copa artilerie do arrijn\u00eb t\u2019u mbijetojn\u00eb sulmeve ajrore ruse, nj\u00eb pik\u00ebpyetje e madhe).<\/span><\/p>\n SHBA-ja ka furnizuar Ukrain\u00ebn me 142 topa t\u00eb t\u00ebrhequr t\u00eb llojeve M-177 dhe SHBA-ja dhe Evropa kan\u00eb furnizuar Ukrain\u00ebn me rreth 300 sisteme arm\u00ebsh l\u00ebviz\u00ebse dhe vet\u00ebl\u00ebviz\u00ebse 155 mm.<\/span><\/p>\n Ukraina ka gjithashtu obusa me origjin\u00eb ruse D-30 122 mm, megjith\u00ebse k\u00ebto po shkat\u00ebrrohen vazhdimisht nga avion\u00ebt, dron\u00ebt, raketat dhe artileria ruse. Rusia ka rreth 6000 sisteme artilerie dhe raketash n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb.<\/span><\/p>\n E nj\u00ebjta histori vlen edhe p\u00ebr M-142 HIMARS. Municioni jetik p\u00ebr HIMARS n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb quhet raketa e l\u00ebshuar shum\u00ebfishe e drejtuar (GMLRS), e cila ka nj\u00eb rreze veprimi nga 15 deri n\u00eb 70 kilometra.<\/span><\/p>\n Ukraina ka l\u00ebshuar tashm\u00eb 9,612 nga k\u00ebto raketa, secila raket\u00eb kushton rreth 160,000 dollar\u00eb (kostoja totale pa llogaritur transportin dhe mb\u00ebshtetjen, n\u00ebvler\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrgjithshme 1,538 miliard\u00eb dollar\u00eb). Sipas dokumenteve t\u00eb Pentagonit, nuk ka m\u00eb nga k\u00ebto raketa n\u00eb linj\u00ebn e furnizimit.<\/span><\/p>\n Ashtu si vitet 155, HIMARS-i do duhej t\u00eb t\u00ebrhiqej nga ushtria aktive amerikane dhe nj\u00ebsit\u00eb e marin\u00ebs p\u00ebr t\u00eb rifurnizuar Ukrain\u00ebn. Nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb, rus\u00ebt pretendojn\u00eb sukses n\u00eb rritje n\u00eb rr\u00ebzimin e raketave HIMARS.<\/span><\/p>\n Brigadat ukrainase gjithashtu mund t\u00eb mos jen\u00eb n\u00eb fuqi t\u00eb plot\u00eb dhe numri i rekrut\u00ebve ose trupave elitare me p\u00ebrvoj\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb ndoshta i ul\u00ebt. Shum\u00eb nga ata q\u00eb do hidhen n\u00eb luft\u00eb jan\u00eb ushtar\u00eb t\u00eb rinj, t\u00eb pap\u00ebrvoj\u00eb.<\/span><\/p>\n Megjithat\u00eb, Ukraina deri m\u00eb tani ka treguar q\u00ebndrueshm\u00ebri t\u00eb konsiderueshme dhe kryesisht taktika t\u00eb mira. Gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb shum\u00eb, operator\u00ebt e blinduar t\u00eb Ukrain\u00ebs po st\u00ebrviten nga vendet e NATO-s.<\/span><\/p>\n Megjithat\u00eb, numri i madh i forcave t\u00eb grumbulluara n\u00eb Bakhmut (10,000 deri n\u00eb 15,000) dhe gjetk\u00eb (Avdiivka, Vuhledar, etj) krijon nj\u00eb problem t\u00eb dyfisht\u00eb p\u00ebr Ukrain\u00ebn: n\u00ebse duhet t\u00eb leht\u00ebsohen k\u00ebto forca para se t\u00eb shkat\u00ebrrohen, apo t\u00eb vazhdojn\u00eb n\u00eb pranver\u00ebn e von\u00eb me nj\u00eb ofensiv\u00eb, duke i l\u00ebn\u00eb forcat ekzistuese t\u00eb p\u00ebrpiqen t\u00eb mbajn\u00eb terrenin e tyre. Rusia po arrin fitime t\u00eb q\u00ebndrueshme, edhe pse t\u00eb ngadalta n\u00eb betejat Bakhmut dhe Avdiivka, por jo n\u00eb Vuhledar.<\/span><\/p>\n N\u00ebse rus\u00ebt dalin nga betejat p\u00ebrgjat\u00eb vij\u00ebs s\u00eb kontaktit n\u00eb Donbas dhe shtyhen drejt per\u00ebndimit, nuk do ket\u00eb shum\u00eb mund\u00ebsi p\u00ebr t’i ndaluar ata. Kjo do e detyronte Ukrain\u00ebn ose t\u00eb ndaj\u00eb brigadat e saj kund\u00ebrsulmuese t\u00eb mbledhura aktualisht, ose t’i kthej\u00eb ato plot\u00ebsisht n\u00eb ndalimin e Rusis\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb arrij\u00eb lumin Dnieper dhe t\u00eb k\u00ebrc\u00ebnoj\u00eb Kievin.<\/span><\/p>\n Rusia mund t\u00eb kryej\u00eb gjithashtu nj\u00eb manov\u00ebr t\u00eb stilit Schlieffen dhe t\u00eb godas\u00eb trupat ukrainase t\u00eb p\u00ebrfshira n\u00eb ofensiv\u00ebn e fundit t\u00eb pranver\u00ebs n\u00eb pjes\u00ebn e pasme t\u00eb tyre dhe n\u00eb krah\u00ebt e tyre lindor\u00eb.<\/span><\/p>\n K\u00ebshtu, pamja p\u00ebr ofensiv\u00ebn e Ukrain\u00ebs nuk duket premtuese. Ndoshta Ukraina mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrpiqet dhe t\u00eb pres\u00eb derisa SHBA dhe NATO t\u00eb jen\u00eb n\u00eb gjendje t\u00eb ofrojn\u00eb t\u00eb gjitha pajisjet e r\u00ebnda dhe municionet e nevojshme, por kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb ndoshta disa vite larg. Megjithat\u00eb, rus\u00ebt mund t\u00eb mos jen\u00eb t\u00eb prirur t\u00eb lejojn\u00eb q\u00eb ai skenar t\u00eb shpaloset.<\/span><\/p>\n Pozicioni i administrat\u00ebs Biden p\u00ebr Ukrain\u00ebn kund\u00ebrshton negociatat politike, t\u00eb pakt\u00ebn tani p\u00ebr tani. Ka z\u00ebra se administrata i ka k\u00ebrkuar Ukrain\u00ebs q\u00eb t\u00eb jet\u00eb m\u00eb fleksib\u00ebl n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb tem\u00eb, por k\u00ebto nuk jan\u00eb konfirmuar. Nuland dhe t\u00eb tjer\u00ebt n\u00eb administrat\u00eb jan\u00eb kund\u00ebr \u00e7do marr\u00ebveshjeje me rus\u00ebt, por ka forca t\u00eb tjera q\u00eb punojn\u00eb n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb drejtim.<\/span><\/p>\n E para \u00ebsht\u00eb se industria ruse po nxjerr municion dhe arm\u00eb t\u00eb reja n\u00eb nj\u00eb baz\u00eb t\u00eb plot\u00eb lufte (krejt ndryshe nga SHBA dhe NATO). Fuqia njer\u00ebzore ruse \u00ebsht\u00eb rimbushur kryesisht, ose rimbushja \u00ebsht\u00eb duke u zhvilluar dhe forcat ruse n\u00eb p\u00ebrgjith\u00ebsi po luftojn\u00eb n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb m\u00eb efektive se m\u00eb par\u00eb. Rreziku \u00ebsht\u00eb q\u00eb n\u00ebse rus\u00ebt mbizot\u00ebrojn\u00eb, Ukraina si entitet politik mund t\u00eb shembet.<\/span><\/p>\n Faktori i dyt\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb presioni ndaj NATO-s nga lufta n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb. NATO-s \u00ebsht\u00eb pothuajse pa municione dhe furnizime, madje edhe politikan\u00ebt evropian\u00eb pro-ukrainas kan\u00eb filluar t\u00eb shqet\u00ebsohen p\u00ebr luft\u00ebn. Ka gjithashtu nj\u00eb goditje nga shkat\u00ebrrimi i tubacioneve Nord Stream, di\u00e7ka q\u00eb ka minuar marr\u00ebdh\u00ebniet SHBA-Gjermani.<\/span><\/p>\n Nj\u00eb faktor i tret\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb aft\u00ebsia e NATO-s p\u00ebr t\u00eb mbrojtur kufirin e saj tani edhe m\u00eb t\u00eb gjat\u00eb me Rusin\u00eb, me Finland\u00ebn si nj\u00eb an\u00ebtare e re e aleanc\u00ebs s\u00eb NATO-s, n\u00ebse luftimet shp\u00ebrthejn\u00eb p\u00ebrtej kufijve t\u00eb Ukrain\u00ebs.<\/span><\/p>\n Disa nga lojtar\u00ebt e NATO-s mendojn\u00eb se jan\u00eb t\u00eb fort\u00eb, Polonia \u00ebsht\u00eb shembulli m\u00eb i mir\u00eb, por t\u00eb tjer\u00ebt jan\u00eb n\u00eb gjendje t\u00eb keqe ushtarake. Gjermania dhe Britania e Madhe, dy fuqi t\u00eb m\u00ebdha evropiane, kan\u00eb ushtri t\u00eb vogla me mang\u00ebsi serioze n\u00eb pajisje.<\/span><\/p>\n Shtojini k\u00ebsaj faktin se SHBA-ja ka v\u00ebn\u00eb pothuajse t\u00eb gjitha burimet e saj ELINT, COMINT dhe Imaging p\u00ebr t\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetur Ukrain\u00ebn, duke rrezikuar q\u00eb telashet t\u00eb vijn\u00eb diku tjet\u00ebr n\u00eb Evrop\u00eb ose n\u00eb Paq\u00ebsor.<\/span><\/p>\n Mbi t\u00eb gjitha k\u00ebto, disa lojtar\u00eb t\u00eb NATO-s, p\u00ebr shembull Hungaria, nuk i mb\u00ebshtet SHBA-n\u00eb dhe NATO-n n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb, dhe t\u00eb pakt\u00ebn nj\u00eb lojtar i r\u00ebnd\u00ebsish\u00ebm, Turqia, mund t\u00eb mos e mb\u00ebshtes\u00eb NATO-n ose t\u00eb pajtohet me nenin 5 t\u00eb sistemit t\u00eb mbrojtjes kolektive t\u00eb NATO-s, i cili k\u00ebrkon unanimitetin e an\u00ebtar\u00ebve. Q\u00eb nga rrjedhja e dokumentit t\u00eb Pentagonit, ka gjithashtu dyshime n\u00eb rritje p\u00ebr aft\u00ebsin\u00eb e Ukrain\u00ebs p\u00ebr t\u00eb q\u00ebndruar n\u00eb luft\u00eb.<\/span><\/p>\n Menj\u00ebher\u00eb, SHBA ka pak rezerva p\u00ebr t\u00eb furnizuar Tajvanin, Japonin\u00eb ose Koren\u00eb e Jugut n\u00eb rast t\u00eb nj\u00eb p\u00ebrplasjeje me Kin\u00ebn. Gj\u00ebrat jan\u00eb ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht t\u00eb v\u00ebshtira kur b\u00ebhet fjal\u00eb p\u00ebr Tajvanin, i cili ka k\u00ebrkuar arm\u00eb amerikane q\u00eb nuk po i merr p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb luft\u00ebs n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb.<\/span><\/p>\n Shembujt p\u00ebrfshijn\u00eb HIMARS, t\u00eb cilat jan\u00eb t\u00eb porositura, por t\u00eb vonuara, dhe artileri vet\u00ebl\u00ebviz\u00ebse 155 mm (M-198) q\u00eb nuk jan\u00eb t\u00eb disponueshme p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb Ukrain\u00ebs. Edhe avion\u00ebt F-16-t\u00eb, q\u00eb i jan\u00eb premtuar Tajvanit, nuk po dor\u00ebzohen sipas planit. Po k\u00ebshtu d\u00ebrgesat n\u00eb Bullgari pritet t\u00eb vonojn\u00eb t\u00eb pakt\u00ebn dy vjet. Aleat\u00ebt aziatik\u00eb t\u00eb Amerik\u00ebs, t\u00eb cil\u00ebt gjithashtu lexuan materialin e zbuluar nga Pentagoni, duhet t\u00eb shqet\u00ebsohen.<\/span><\/p>\n K\u00ebshtu, kund\u00ebrshtimi i SHBA-s\u00eb ndaj nj\u00eb marr\u00ebveshjeje t\u00eb negociuar me Rusin\u00eb duket se p\u00ebrb\u00ebn nj\u00eb rrezik t\u00eb madh strategjik t\u00eb siguris\u00eb, me pak mund\u00ebsi p\u00ebr p\u00ebrmir\u00ebsim, edhe n\u00ebse Ukraina do ishte n\u00eb gjendje t\u00eb fitonte disi terren n\u00eb ofensiv\u00ebn e saj t\u00eb fundit t\u00eb pranver\u00ebs.<\/span><\/p>\n M\u00ebnyra m\u00eb e kujdesshme e veprimit do ishte shtytja p\u00ebr negociata me rus\u00ebt. Kjo nuk do jet\u00eb e leht\u00eb, sepse rus\u00ebt ndoshta nuk do t\u00eb bien dakord p\u00ebr ndonj\u00eb ndales\u00eb apo arm\u00ebpushim dhe ndoshta do k\u00ebrkojn\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb hiqen sanksionet e SHBA-s\u00eb dhe BE-s\u00eb.<\/span><\/p>\n Megjithat\u00eb, n\u00ebse administrata Biden nuk ndryshon kursin, ata do vazhdojn\u00eb t\u00eb luajn\u00eb rulet\u00eb ruse me nj\u00eb pistolet\u00eb t\u00eb mbushur plot.<\/span><\/p>\n *<\/span>Stephen Bryen \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb bashk\u00ebpun\u00ebtor i lart\u00eb n\u00eb Qendr\u00ebn p\u00ebr Politikat e Siguris\u00eb dhe Institutin Yorktown<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/ezgif.com-webp-to-jpg-30.jpg\")
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