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Huamarrja mund t\u00eb b\u00ebhet m\u00eb e v\u00ebshtir\u00eb, nj\u00eb goditje e ve\u00e7ant\u00eb p\u00ebr bizneset e vogla dhe nj\u00eb k\u00ebrc\u00ebnim p\u00ebr fuqin\u00eb q\u00ebndruese t\u00eb rim\u00ebk\u00ebmbjes.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n Nga Ben Casselman<\/em><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n Rim\u00ebk\u00ebmbja ekonomike e SHBA-s\u00eb ka kund\u00ebrshtuar vazhdimisht parashikimet e nj\u00eb recesioni t\u00eb af\u00ebrt, duke p\u00ebrballuar ngarkes\u00ebn e zinxhirit t\u00eb furnizimit, mungesat e fuqis\u00eb pun\u00ebtore, konfliktet globale dhe rritjen m\u00eb t\u00eb shpejt\u00eb t\u00eb normave t\u00eb interesit n\u00eb dekada.<\/span><\/p>\n Ky elsaticitet tani p\u00ebrballet me nj\u00eb prov\u00eb t\u00eb re: nj\u00eb kriz\u00eb bankare q\u00eb, disa her\u00eb gjat\u00eb jav\u00ebs s\u00eb kaluar, dukej e gatshme t\u00eb shnd\u00ebrrohej n\u00eb nj\u00eb shkrirje financiare t\u00eb plot\u00eb pasi \u00e7mimet e naft\u00ebs ran\u00eb dhe investitor\u00ebt derdh\u00ebn para n\u00eb borxhin e qeveris\u00eb amerikane dhe aktive t\u00eb tjera t\u00eb perceptuara si t\u00eb sigurta.<\/span><\/p>\n Tregjet u qet\u00ebsuan disi deri n\u00eb fund t\u00eb jav\u00ebs mes shpresave se veprimet e shpejta nga lider\u00ebt n\u00eb Uashington dhe n\u00eb \u00cball Street do e p\u00ebrmbanin kriz\u00ebnn\u00eb bankat e vogla dhe t\u00eb mesme ku filloi.<\/span><\/p>\n Por edhe n\u00ebse kjo do ndodhte – dhe veteran\u00ebt e krizave t\u00eb m\u00ebparshme paralajm\u00ebruan se ishte nj\u00eb \u2018n\u00ebse\u2019 e madhe – ekonomist\u00ebt than\u00eb se episodi n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb pashmangshme do ndikonte n\u00eb pun\u00ebsimin dhe investimet pasi bankat u t\u00ebrhoq\u00ebn nga huadh\u00ebnia dhe bizneset luftuan p\u00ebr t\u00eb marr\u00eb hua si rezultat i k\u00ebsaj. Disa parashikues than\u00eb se trazirat tashm\u00eb e kishin b\u00ebr\u00eb nj\u00eb recesion t\u00eb mundsh\u00ebm.<\/span><\/p>\n “Do ket\u00eb pasoja t\u00eb v\u00ebrteta dhe t\u00eb q\u00ebndrueshme ekonomike nga kjo, edhe n\u00ebse i gjith\u00eb i gjith\u00eb pluhuri i ngritur arrin t\u00eb pastrohet.”<\/em> – tha Jay Bryson, kryeekonomist n\u00eb \u00cbells Fargo.<\/span><\/p>\n “Un\u00eb do rris mund\u00ebsin\u00eb e nj\u00eb recesioni duke pasur parasysh at\u00eb q\u00eb ka ndodhur jav\u00ebn e fundit.”<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n S\u00eb paku, kriza ka nd\u00ebrlikuar detyr\u00ebn tashm\u00eb delikate me t\u00eb cil\u00ebn p\u00ebrballen zyrtar\u00ebt e Rezerv\u00ebs Federale, t\u00eb cil\u00ebt jan\u00eb p\u00ebrpjekur t\u00eb ngadal\u00ebsojn\u00eb gradualisht ekonomin\u00eb n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb ulnin inflacionin. <\/span><\/p>\n Kjo detyr\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb po aq e menj\u00ebhershme sa kurr\u00eb m\u00eb par\u00eb: t\u00eb dh\u00ebnat e qeveris\u00eb t\u00eb mart\u00ebn treguan se \u00e7mimet vazhduan t\u00eb rriteshin me nj\u00eb rit\u00ebm t\u00eb shpejt\u00eb n\u00eb shkurt. Por tani politik\u00ebb\u00ebr\u00ebsit duhet t\u00eb p\u00ebrballen me rrezikun se p\u00ebrpjekjet e rezerv\u00ebs Federale p\u00ebr t\u00eb luftuar inflacionin mund t\u00eb destabilizojn\u00eb sistemin financiar.<\/span><\/p>\n Ata nuk kan\u00eb shum\u00eb koh\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb peshuar mund\u00ebsit\u00eb e tyre: Zyrtar\u00ebt e Rezerv\u00ebs Federale do mbajn\u00eb takimin e radh\u00ebs t\u00eb planifikuar rregullisht t\u00eb mart\u00ebn dhe t\u00eb m\u00ebrkur\u00ebn mes pasiguris\u00eb s\u00eb pazakont\u00eb p\u00ebr at\u00eb q\u00eb do b\u00ebjn\u00eb.<\/span><\/p>\n Vet\u00ebm 10 dit\u00eb m\u00eb par\u00eb, investitor\u00ebt prisnin q\u00eb banka qendrore t\u00eb rip\u00ebrshpejtonte fushat\u00ebn e saj t\u00eb rritjes s\u00eb normave t\u00eb interesit n\u00eb p\u00ebrgjigje t\u00eb t\u00eb dh\u00ebnave ekonomike m\u00eb t\u00eb forta se sa pritej. Tani, v\u00ebzhguesit e Rezerv\u00ebs Federale po debatojn\u00eb n\u00ebse takimi do p\u00ebrfundoj\u00eb me norma t\u00eb pandryshuara.<\/span><\/p>\n Nocioni se rritja e shpejt\u00eb e normave t\u00eb interesit mund t\u00eb k\u00ebrc\u00ebnoj\u00eb stabilitetin financiar nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb i ri. N\u00eb muajt e fundit, ekonomist\u00ebt kan\u00eb v\u00ebrejtur shpesh se \u00ebsht\u00eb p\u00ebr t’u habitur q\u00eb Rezerva Federale ka qen\u00eb n\u00eb gjendje t\u00eb rris\u00eb normat kaq shum\u00eb, kaq shpejt, pa nd\u00ebrprerje t\u00eb r\u00ebnda n\u00eb nj\u00eb treg q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00ebsuar me kostot e huamarrjes.<\/span><\/p>\n Ajo q\u00eb pritej m\u00eb pak ishte ajo ku u shfaq plasaritja e par\u00eb: bankat e vogla dhe t\u00eb mesme amerikane, n\u00eb teori, nd\u00ebr pjes\u00ebt m\u00eb t\u00eb mbik\u00ebqyrura nga af\u00ebr dhe m\u00eb t\u00eb rregulluara t\u00eb sistemit financiar global.<\/span><\/p>\n \u201cIsha i befasuar se ku erdhi problemi, por nuk u habita q\u00eb kishte nj\u00eb problem\u201d<\/em>, tha n\u00eb nj\u00eb intervist\u00eb Kenneth Rogoff, nj\u00eb profesor i Harvardit dhe studiues kryesor i krizave financiare. N\u00eb nj\u00eb ese n\u00eb fillim t\u00eb janarit, ai paralajm\u00ebroi p\u00ebr rrezikun e nj\u00eb \u2018s\u00ebmundjeje ngjit\u00ebse financiare t\u00eb af\u00ebrt\u2019 nd\u00ebrsa qeverit\u00eb dhe bizneset luftojn\u00eb p\u00ebr t’u p\u00ebrshtatur me nj\u00eb epok\u00eb t\u00eb normave m\u00eb t\u00eb larta t\u00eb interesit.<\/span><\/p>\n Ai tha se nuk priste nj\u00eb p\u00ebrs\u00ebritje t\u00eb vitit 2008, kur kolapsi i tregut t\u00eb hipotekave n\u00eb SHBA p\u00ebrfshiu me shpejt\u00ebsi pothuajse t\u00eb gjith\u00eb sistemin financiar global. Bankat n\u00eb mbar\u00eb bot\u00ebn jan\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb kapitalizuara dhe t\u00eb rregulluara m\u00eb mir\u00eb se sa n\u00eb at\u00eb koh\u00eb, dhe vet\u00eb ekonomia \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb e fort\u00eb.<\/span><\/p>\n “Zakonisht p\u00ebr t\u00eb pasur nj\u00eb kriz\u00eb financiare m\u00eb sistematike, nevojitet q\u00eb t\u00eb rr\u00ebzohet m\u00eb shum\u00eb se nj\u00eb domino.”<\/em> – tha profesori Rogoff.<\/span><\/p>\n “Mendoni p\u00ebr normat reale t\u00eb interesit m\u00eb t\u00eb larta si nj\u00eb domino, por ju duhet nj\u00eb tjet\u00ebr.”<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n Megjithat\u00eb, ai dhe ekspert\u00eb t\u00eb tjer\u00eb than\u00eb se ishte alarmante q\u00eb probleme t\u00eb tilla t\u00eb r\u00ebnda mund t\u00eb mos zbuloheshin kaq gjat\u00eb n\u00eb Silicon Valley Bank, institucioni i mes\u00ebm n\u00eb Kaliforni, d\u00ebshtimi i t\u00eb cilit shkaktoi trazirat e fundit. Kjo ngre pyetje n\u00eb lidhje me k\u00ebrc\u00ebnimet e tjera q\u00eb mund t\u00eb fshihen, ndoshta n\u00eb qoshet m\u00eb pak t\u00eb rregulluara t\u00eb financave, si\u00e7 jan\u00eb pasurit\u00eb e paluajtshme ose kapitali privat.<\/span><\/p>\n “N\u00ebse ne nuk e kemi kuptuar k\u00ebt\u00eb, at\u00ebher\u00eb \u00e7far\u00eb ndodh me disa nga k\u00ebto pjes\u00eb t\u00eb tjera, m\u00eb t\u00eb err\u00ebta t\u00eb sistemit financiar?”<\/em> tha Anil Kashyap, nj\u00eb ekonomist i Universitetit t\u00eb \u00c7ikagos q\u00eb studion krizat financiare.<\/span><\/p>\n Tashm\u00eb, ka aludime se kriza mund t\u00eb mos kufizohet vet\u00ebm n\u00eb Shtetet e Bashkuara. Credit Suisse t\u00eb enjten tha se do marr\u00eb hua deri n\u00eb 54 miliard\u00eb dollar\u00eb nga Banka Komb\u00ebtare Zvicerane pasi investitor\u00ebt rr\u00ebzuan stokun e saj pasi u ngrit frika p\u00ebr sh\u00ebndetin e saj financiar. <\/span><\/p>\n Huadh\u00ebn\u00ebsi 166-vje\u00e7ar \u00ebsht\u00eb p\u00ebrballur me nj\u00eb seri t\u00eb gjat\u00eb skandalesh dhe hapash t\u00eb gabuar dhe problemet e tij nuk lidhen drejtp\u00ebrdrejt me ato t\u00eb Silicon Valley Bank dhe institucioneve t\u00eb tjera amerikane. Por ekonomist\u00ebt than\u00eb se reagimi i dhunsh\u00ebm i tregut ishte nj\u00eb shenj\u00eb se investitor\u00ebt po shqet\u00ebsohen gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb shum\u00eb p\u00ebr stabilitetin e sistemit m\u00eb t\u00eb gjer\u00eb.<\/span><\/p>\n Trazirat n\u00eb bot\u00ebn financiare vijn\u00eb pik\u00ebrisht kur rim\u00ebk\u00ebmbja ekonomike, t\u00eb pakt\u00ebn n\u00eb Shtetet e Bashkuara, dukej se po merrte vrull. Shpenzimet konsumatore, t\u00eb cilat ran\u00eb n\u00eb fund t\u00eb vitit 2022, u rikuperuan n\u00eb fillim t\u00eb k\u00ebtij viti. Tregu i banesave, i cili ra n\u00eb vitin 2022 me rritjen e normave t\u00eb hipotekave, kishte treguar shenja stabilizimi. <\/span><\/p>\n Dhe pavar\u00ebsisht pushimeve nga puna t\u00eb zyrtar\u00ebve t\u00eb profilit t\u00eb lart\u00eb n\u00eb kompanit\u00eb e m\u00ebdha t\u00eb teknologjis\u00eb, rritja e vendeve t\u00eb pun\u00ebs ka q\u00ebndruar e fort\u00eb apo edhe e p\u00ebrshpejtuar n\u00eb muajt e fundit. N\u00eb fillim t\u00eb marsit, parashikuesit po rrisnin vler\u00ebsimet e tyre p\u00ebr rritjen ekonomike dhe po zvog\u00eblonin rreziqet e nj\u00eb recesioni, t\u00eb pakt\u00ebn k\u00ebt\u00eb vit.<\/span><\/p>\n Tani, shum\u00eb prej tyre po e kthejn\u00eb kursin. Z. Bryson, nga Wells Fargo, tha se ai tani e vendos probabilitetin e nj\u00eb recesioni k\u00ebt\u00eb vit n\u00eb rreth 65 p\u00ebr qind, nga rreth 55 p\u00ebr qind p\u00ebrpara d\u00ebshtimeve t\u00eb fundit t\u00eb bankave. <\/span><\/p>\n Edhe Goldman Sachs, nd\u00ebr parashikuesit m\u00eb optimist\u00eb n\u00eb \u00cball Street n\u00eb muajt e fundit, tha t\u00eb enjten se mund\u00ebsit\u00eb p\u00ebr nj\u00eb recesion ishin rritur me 10 pik\u00eb p\u00ebrqindjeje, n\u00eb 35 p\u00ebr qind, si rezultat i kriz\u00ebs dhe pasiguris\u00eb q\u00eb rezultoi.<\/span><\/p>\n Ndikimi m\u00eb i menj\u00ebhersh\u00ebm ka t\u00eb ngjar\u00eb t\u00eb jet\u00eb n\u00eb huadh\u00ebnie. Bankat e vogla dhe t\u00eb mesme mund t\u00eb shtr\u00ebngojn\u00eb standardet e tyre t\u00eb kreditimit dhe t\u00eb l\u00ebshojn\u00eb m\u00eb pak kredi, qoft\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb p\u00ebrpjekje vullnetare p\u00ebr t\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetur financat e tyre ose n\u00eb p\u00ebrgjigje t\u00eb nj\u00eb kontrolli t\u00eb shtuar nga rregullator\u00ebt. <\/span><\/p>\n Kjo mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb nj\u00eb goditje p\u00ebr zhvilluesit rezidencial\u00eb dhe komercial\u00eb, prodhuesit dhe bizneset e tjera q\u00eb mb\u00ebshteten n\u00eb borxhe p\u00ebr t\u00eb financuar operacionet e tyre t\u00eb p\u00ebrditshme.<\/span><\/p>\n Janet L. Yellen, sekretarja e Thesarit, tha t\u00eb enjten se qeveria federale po \u2018mbik\u00ebqyrte me shum\u00eb kujdes\u2019 sh\u00ebndetin e sistemit bankar dhe kushtet e kreditimit m\u00eb gjer\u00ebsisht.<\/span><\/p>\n “Nj\u00eb problem m\u00eb i p\u00ebrgjithsh\u00ebm q\u00eb na shqet\u00ebson \u00ebsht\u00eb mund\u00ebsia q\u00eb n\u00ebse bankat jan\u00eb n\u00ebn stres, ato mund t\u00eb ngurrojn\u00eb t\u00eb japin hua.”<\/em> – u tha ajo an\u00ebtar\u00ebve t\u00eb Komitetit t\u00eb Financave t\u00eb Senatit. Kjo, shtoi ajo, \u2018mund ta kthej\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb burim t\u00eb rrezikut t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsish\u00ebm ekonomik\u2019.<\/span><\/p>\n Kredia m\u00eb e shtr\u00ebnguar ka t\u00eb ngjar\u00eb t\u00eb jet\u00eb nj\u00eb sfid\u00eb e ve\u00e7ant\u00eb p\u00ebr bizneset e vogla, t\u00eb cilat zakonisht nuk kan\u00eb qasje t\u00eb gatshme n\u00eb burime t\u00eb tjera financimi, si\u00e7 \u00ebsht\u00eb tregu i borxhit t\u00eb korporatave, dhe q\u00eb shpesh mb\u00ebshteten n\u00eb marr\u00ebdh\u00ebniet me bankier\u00ebt q\u00eb njohin industrin\u00eb e tyre specifike ose komunitetin lokal. <\/span><\/p>\n Disa mund t\u00eb jen\u00eb n\u00eb gjendje t\u00eb marrin kredi nga bankat e m\u00ebdha, t\u00eb cilat deri m\u00eb tani jan\u00eb dukur kryesisht t\u00eb imunizuara nga problemet me t\u00eb cilat p\u00ebrballen institucionet m\u00eb t\u00eb vogla. Por ata pothuajse me siguri do paguajn\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb p\u00ebr ta b\u00ebr\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb, dhe shum\u00eb biznese mund t\u00eb mos jen\u00eb n\u00eb gjendje t\u00eb marrin kredi fare, duke i detyruar ata t\u00eb shkurtojn\u00eb pun\u00ebsimin, investimin dhe shpenzimet.<\/span><\/p>\n “Mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb e v\u00ebshtir\u00eb t\u00eb z\u00ebvend\u00ebsohen ato banka t\u00eb vogla dhe t\u00eb mesme me burime t\u00eb tjera kapitali,”<\/em> tha Michael Feroli, kryeekonomisti amerikan n\u00eb J.P. Morgan.<\/span><\/p>\n “Kjo, nga ana tjet\u00ebr, mund t\u00eb pengoj\u00eb rritjen.”<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n Rritja m\u00eb e ngadalt\u00eb, natyrisht, \u00ebsht\u00eb pik\u00ebrisht ajo q\u00eb rezerva Federale \u00ebsht\u00eb p\u00ebrpjekur t\u00eb arrij\u00eb duke rritur normat e interesit – dhe kredia m\u00eb e shtr\u00ebnguar \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb nga kanalet kryesore p\u00ebrmes t\u00eb cilave besohet se funksionon politika monetare.<\/span><\/p>\n N\u00ebse bizneset dhe konsumator\u00ebt t\u00ebrhiqen nga aktiviteti, ose sepse huamarrja b\u00ebhet m\u00eb e shtrenjt\u00eb ose sepse ata jan\u00eb nervoz\u00eb p\u00ebr ekonomin\u00eb, kjo teorikisht mund t\u00eb ndihmoj\u00eb Rezerv\u00ebn Federale t\u00eb sjell\u00eb inflacionin n\u00ebn kontroll.<\/span><\/p>\n Por Philipp Schnabl, nj\u00eb ekonomist i Universitetit t\u00eb Nju Jorkut, i cili ka studiuar problemet e fundit bankare, tha se politik\u00ebb\u00ebr\u00ebsit ishin p\u00ebrpjekur t\u00eb frenonin ekonomin\u00eb duke ulur k\u00ebrkes\u00ebn p\u00ebr mallra dhe sh\u00ebrbime. <\/span><\/p>\n P\u00ebrkundrazi, nj\u00eb trazir\u00eb financiare mund t\u00eb rezultoj\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb humbje t\u00eb papritur t\u00eb qasjes n\u00eb kredi. Kjo huadh\u00ebnie m\u00eb e shtr\u00ebnguar bankare mund t\u00eb ndikoj\u00eb gjithashtu n\u00eb ofert\u00ebn e p\u00ebrgjithshme n\u00eb ekonomi, e cila \u00ebsht\u00eb e v\u00ebshtir\u00eb t\u00eb trajtohet p\u00ebrmes politik\u00ebs s\u00eb Rezerv\u00ebs Federale.<\/span><\/p>\n “Ne kemi rritur normat p\u00ebr t\u00eb ndikuar n\u00eb k\u00ebrkes\u00ebn agregate,”<\/em> tha ai.<\/span><\/p>\n “Tani, mund t\u00eb kemi k\u00ebt\u00eb kriz\u00eb kredie, por kjo vjen nga shqet\u00ebsimet e stabilitetit financiar.”<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n Megjithat\u00eb, ekonomia e SHBA-s\u00eb ruan burime fuqie q\u00eb mund t\u00eb ndihmojn\u00eb n\u00eb zbutjen e goditjeve t\u00eb fundit. Familjet, n\u00eb total, kan\u00eb kursime t\u00eb mjaftueshme dhe t\u00eb ardhura n\u00eb rritje. Bizneset, pas vitesh fitimesh t\u00eb forta, kan\u00eb relativisht pak borxhe. Dhe pavar\u00ebsisht nga betejat e koleg\u00ebve t\u00eb tyre m\u00eb t\u00eb vegj\u00ebl, bankat m\u00eb t\u00eb m\u00ebdha t\u00eb SHBA-s\u00eb jan\u00eb n\u00eb baza financiare shum\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb forta se sa n\u00eb vitin 2008.<\/span><\/p>\n “Un\u00eb ende besoj – jo vet\u00ebm shpresoj – se d\u00ebmi n\u00eb ekonomin\u00eb reale nga kjo do t\u00eb jet\u00eb mjaft i kufizuar,” <\/em>tha Adam Posen, president i Institutit Peterson p\u00ebr Ekonomin\u00eb Nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare.<\/span><\/p>\n