{"id":580473,"date":"2023-02-20T13:00:39","date_gmt":"2023-02-20T12:00:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/?p=580473"},"modified":"2023-02-20T13:00:39","modified_gmt":"2023-02-20T12:00:39","slug":"analiza-tronditja-e-luftes-godet-ekonomine-boterore-ne-udhekryq","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/2023\/02\/20\/analiza-tronditja-e-luftes-godet-ekonomine-boterore-ne-udhekryq\/","title":{"rendered":"Analiza – Tronditja e luft\u00ebs godet ekonomin\u00eb bot\u00ebrore n\u00eb udh\u00ebkryq","gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"rendered","format":"text"}]},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/p>\n

Nj\u00eb vit lufte n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb ka b\u00ebr\u00eb tashm\u00eb nj\u00eb goditje n\u00eb zhvillimin bot\u00ebror. Por ndikimi i tij m\u00eb i thell\u00eb do ndihet n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00ebn se si konflikti luan n\u00eb ndryshimet q\u00eb tashm\u00eb po riform\u00ebsonin ekonomin\u00eb globale p\u00ebrpara se Rusia\u00a0 t\u00eb sulmonte Ukrain\u00ebn.<\/span><\/p>\n

Menj\u00ebher\u00eb, lufta shtoi pasiguri t\u00eb reja n\u00eb tronditjen ekonomike pas pandemis\u00eb Covid-19 q\u00eb kishte \u00e7uar tashm\u00eb n\u00eb rritje rekord t\u00eb borxhit publik, kriza t\u00eb kostos s\u00eb jetes\u00ebs t\u00eb nxitura nga inflacioni dhe mungesa t\u00eb fuqis\u00eb pun\u00ebtore n\u00eb sektor\u00eb thelb\u00ebsor\u00eb.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sanksionet ekonomike ndaj Mosk\u00ebs erdh\u00ebn nd\u00ebrsa pengesat n\u00eb tregtin\u00eb bot\u00ebrore po rriteshin pas nj\u00eb epoke t\u00eb globalizimit t\u00eb shpejt\u00eb. Sanksionet ndaj gazit e naft\u00ebs ruse forcuan rastin p\u00ebr nj\u00eb kalim energjetik t\u00eb gjelb\u00ebr.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

“Tronditja e luft\u00ebs ndaj k\u00ebrkes\u00ebs dhe \u00e7mimeve ka kaskaduar ekonomin\u00eb globale dhe, n\u00eb lidhje me Covid dhe vendime t\u00eb tjera politike, ka krijuar k\u00ebto er\u00ebra t\u00eb kund\u00ebrta q\u00ebpo rriten,”<\/em> tha Robert Kahn, drejtor i makro-gjeoekonomis\u00eb globale n\u00eb konsulenc\u00ebn Eurasia Group.<\/span><\/p>\n

“Dhe un\u00eb mendoj se nuk kemi mbaruar ende.”<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

Lufta e ka shkat\u00ebrruar ekonomin\u00eb e Ukrain\u00ebs, duke e tkurrur at\u00eb me nj\u00eb t\u00eb tret\u00ebn, nd\u00ebrsa sanksionet tani kan\u00eb filluar t’i l\u00ebn\u00eb Rusis\u00eb t\u00eb ardhura nga energjia dhe eksportet e tjera. Por \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb e v\u00ebshtir\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrcaktohet sasia e ndikimit t\u00eb saj n\u00eb pjes\u00ebn tjet\u00ebr t\u00eb bot\u00ebs.<\/span><\/p>\n

Fqinj\u00ebt evropian\u00eb kan\u00eb shmangur deri m\u00eb tani racionimin masiv t\u00eb energjis\u00eb dhe val\u00ebn e falimentimeve, fal\u00eb p\u00ebrpjekjeve p\u00ebr t\u00eb krijuar rezerva karburanti dhe p\u00ebr t\u00eb frenuar k\u00ebrkes\u00ebn p\u00ebr energji, dhe – jo m\u00eb pak e r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme – pas nj\u00eb dimri jasht\u00ebzakonisht t\u00eb but\u00eb.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00c7mimet globale t\u00eb ushqimit dhe energjis\u00eb tashm\u00eb po rriteshin pasi bota doli nga bllokimet pandemike t\u00eb vitit 2020 dhe u rrit\u00ebn m\u00eb lart pas shp\u00ebrthimit t\u00eb luft\u00ebs, por shum\u00eb indekse tani jan\u00eb n\u00ebn nivelet e tyre t\u00eb nj\u00eb viti m\u00eb par\u00eb.<\/span><\/p>\n

“Ne zbulojm\u00eb se \u00e7mimet e energjis\u00eb u rrit\u00ebn m\u00eb shum\u00eb n\u00eb 2021 sesa n\u00eb 2022, duke sugjeruar se lufta dhe sanksionet nuk ishin shtyt\u00ebsit m\u00eb t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsish\u00ebm,”<\/em> zbuluan analist\u00ebt Zsolt Darvas dhe Catarina Martins n\u00eb nj\u00eb studim t\u00eb dhjetorit p\u00ebr institutin evropian Bruegel.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"\"\"\"\"Fundi s\u2019duket ende<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Disa mund t\u00eb arrijn\u00eb n\u00eb p\u00ebrfundimin se kjo do t\u00eb thot\u00eb se ekonomia bot\u00ebrore do arrij\u00eb t\u00eb trajtoj\u00eb si duhet konfliktin. Optimizmi mbizot\u00ebroi n\u00eb Forumin Ekonomik Bot\u00ebror t\u00eb k\u00ebtij viti n\u00eb Davos, nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb q\u00eb tregjet financiare po v\u00ebn\u00eb bast se ekonomit\u00eb e p\u00ebrparuara mund t\u00eb shmangin recesionin e plot\u00eb.<\/span><\/p>\n

Fondi Monetar Nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar vler\u00ebson tani se ekonomia globale u rrit 3.4% vitin e kaluar – nj\u00eb pik\u00eb p\u00ebrqindje m\u00eb e ul\u00ebt se sa kishte parashikuar para fillimit t\u00eb luft\u00ebs dhe p\u00ebrpara se Bankat Qendrore t\u00eb bot\u00ebs t\u00eb synonin inflacionin me rritje t\u00eb m\u00ebdha t\u00eb normave t\u00eb interesit.<\/span><\/p>\n

N\u00ebse rritja bot\u00ebrore tani mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrputhet me parashikimin e Fondit p\u00ebr 2023 prej 2.9% mbetet p\u00ebr t’u par\u00eb. Ky vler\u00ebsim i rinovuar rishtazi \u00ebsht\u00eb shum\u00eb m\u00eb i lart\u00eb se parashikimi konsensus prej 2.1% i ekonomist\u00ebve privat\u00eb t\u00eb anketuar nga Reuters muajin e kaluar. Dhe ka t\u00eb panjohura t\u00eb tjera q\u00eb mund t\u00eb luajn\u00eb rol t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsish\u00ebm.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pa fund t\u00eb luft\u00ebs n\u00eb horizont, k\u00ebrc\u00ebnimi kryesor mbetet p\u00ebrshkall\u00ebzimi, duke p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb p\u00ebrdorimin nga Rusia t\u00eb arm\u00ebve b\u00ebrthamore n\u00eb fush\u00ebbetej\u00eb. Kjo do ta \u00e7onte perspektiv\u00ebn si p\u00ebr ekonomin\u00eb globale ashtu edhe p\u00ebr paqen m\u00eb t\u00eb gjer\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb territor t\u00eb paeksploruar.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ndikimi i luft\u00ebs n\u00eb burimet e energjis\u00eb q\u00eb drejtojn\u00eb ekonomin\u00eb globale evoluoi deri n\u00eb vitin 2022, me nj\u00eb nxitim t\u00eb hersh\u00ebm drejt l\u00ebnd\u00ebve djeg\u00ebse t\u00eb vjetra fosile si qymyri, i ndjekur nga nj\u00eb shtytje n\u00eb rritje p\u00ebr t\u00eb investuar n\u00eb energjit\u00eb e rinovueshme q\u00eb shihen si m\u00eb pak t\u00eb cenueshme ndaj goditjeve t\u00eb ardhshme gjeopolitike.<\/span><\/p>\n

Agjencia Nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare e Energjis\u00eb pret q\u00eb r\u00ebnia e eksporteve ruse t\u00eb naft\u00ebs t\u00eb kontribuoj\u00eb s\u00eb shpejti n\u00eb nj\u00eb rritje t\u00eb k\u00ebrkes\u00ebs globale p\u00ebr l\u00ebnd\u00eb djeg\u00ebse fosile dhe k\u00ebshtu t\u00eb ofroj\u00eb potencialin p\u00ebr nj\u00eb tranzicion m\u00eb t\u00eb shpejt\u00eb drejt energjis\u00eb s\u00eb gjelb\u00ebr. <\/span><\/p>\n

Por kjo k\u00ebrkon ende m\u00eb shum\u00eb se investimi rekord prej 1.4 trilion dollar\u00ebsh n\u00eb energjin\u00eb e past\u00ebr q\u00eb IEA sheh p\u00ebr vitin 2022. P\u00ebr ekonomin\u00eb, rreziku \u00ebsht\u00eb q\u00eb \u00e7mimet e energjis\u00eb – dhe rrjedhimisht inflacioni – do t\u00eb ngrihen m\u00eb lart n\u00ebse mungesat nuk plot\u00ebsohen.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00c7far\u00eb do t\u00eb thot\u00eb konflikti p\u00ebr tregtin\u00eb globale \u00ebsht\u00eb gjithashtu e paqart\u00eb.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/span><\/p>\n

Kriza financiare e viteve 2007\/08 dhe fitoret zgjedhore p\u00ebr politikan\u00ebt q\u00eb mbrojn\u00eb proteksionizmin e kishin ndalur tashm\u00eb nj\u00eb vrull dy dekadash t\u00eb globalizimit q\u00eb pa kontejnerizimin t\u00eb zgjerohej dhe si Rusia ashtu edhe Kina t\u00eb hyjn\u00eb n\u00eb sistemin e tregtis\u00eb bot\u00ebrore.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tani pyetja \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00ebse sanksionet per\u00ebndimore ndaj Rusis\u00eb – t\u00eb cilat n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb efektive rrethojn\u00eb at\u00eb q\u00eb ishte ekonomia e 11-t\u00eb m\u00eb e madhe n\u00eb bot\u00eb – jan\u00eb fillimi i nj\u00eb forcimi t\u00eb m\u00ebtejsh\u00ebm teksa vendet kufizojn\u00eb partner\u00ebt tregtar\u00eb tek ata q\u00eb i shohin si aleat\u00eb.<\/span><\/p>\n

Organizata Bot\u00ebrore e Tregtis\u00eb dhe t\u00eb tjer\u00ebt shohin nj\u00eb rrezik q\u00eb tregtia t\u00eb ndahet n\u00eb blloqe tregtare armiq\u00ebsore, nj\u00eb skenar q\u00eb FMN-ja e ka modeluar si ulje deri n\u00eb 7% t\u00eb prodhimit global.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nj\u00eb shkaktar i mundsh\u00ebm p\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb nj\u00eb zhvendosje drejt nj\u00eb raundi t\u00eb gjer\u00eb sanksionesh dyt\u00ebsore q\u00eb synojn\u00eb jo vet\u00ebm Rusin\u00eb, por kompanit\u00eb dhe investitor\u00ebt q\u00eb b\u00ebjn\u00eb biznes me t\u00eb.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kahn i Euroazis\u00eb tha se nj\u00eb l\u00ebvizje e till\u00eb – e cila mund t\u00eb fitoj\u00eb t\u00ebrheqje politike n\u00ebse konflikti nxehet – do ta zhyste Rusin\u00eb n\u00eb izolim ekonomik t\u00eb krahasuesh\u00ebm me at\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrjetuar nga Irani, i sanksionuar prej koh\u00ebsh nga Per\u00ebndimi p\u00ebr programin e tij b\u00ebrthamor.<\/span><\/p>\n

“Ne nuk e kemi b\u00ebr\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb sepse Rusia \u00ebsht\u00eb shum\u00eb m\u00eb e r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme dhe sepse jemi t\u00eb shqet\u00ebsuar p\u00ebr pasojat globale t\u00eb sanksioneve gjith\u00ebp\u00ebrfshir\u00ebse,”<\/em> tha Kahn.<\/span><\/p>\n

VINI RE<\/strong><\/span>: Ky\u00a0 material \u00ebsht\u00eb pron\u00ebsi intelektuale e Reuters<\/a><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false,"gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"rendered","format":"html"}]},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Nj\u00eb vit lufte n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb ka b\u00ebr\u00eb tashm\u00eb nj\u00eb goditje n\u00eb zhvillimin bot\u00ebror. Por ndikimi i tij m\u00eb i thell\u00eb do ndihet n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00ebn se si konflikti luan n\u00eb ndryshimet q\u00eb tashm\u00eb po riform\u00ebsonin ekonomin\u00eb globale p\u00ebrpara se Rusia\u00a0 t\u00eb sulmonte Ukrain\u00ebn. Menj\u00ebher\u00eb, lufta shtoi pasiguri t\u00eb reja n\u00eb tronditjen ekonomike pas pandemis\u00eb Covid-19 q\u00eb […]<\/p>\n","protected":false,"gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"rendered","format":"html"}]},"author":51,"featured_media":580480,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[22,53],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-580473","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ballina","category-fast-foodi"],"gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"link","format":"url"}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/580473","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/51"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=580473"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/580473\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/580480"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=580473"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=580473"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=580473"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}