{"id":519345,"date":"2022-04-22T21:41:03","date_gmt":"2022-04-22T19:41:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/?p=519345"},"modified":"2022-04-22T21:41:03","modified_gmt":"2022-04-22T19:41:03","slug":"nje-perplasje-botekuptimesh-cfare-mund-ta-vendose-garen-presidenciale-macron-le-pen","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/2022\/04\/22\/nje-perplasje-botekuptimesh-cfare-mund-ta-vendose-garen-presidenciale-macron-le-pen\/","title":{"rendered":"Nj\u00eb p\u00ebrplasje bot\u00ebkuptimesh, \u00e7far\u00eb mund ta vendos\u00eb gar\u00ebn presidenciale Macron-Le Pen?","gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"rendered","format":"text"}]},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

*Nga Rachel Marsden<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Kur votuesit francez\u00eb t\u00eb shkojn\u00eb n\u00eb qendrat e votimit t\u00eb diel\u00ebn p\u00ebr t\u00eb zgjedhur presidentin e tyre t\u00eb ardhsh\u00ebm, a do t\u00eb pasqyroj\u00eb rezultati at\u00eb t\u00eb zgjedhjeve t\u00eb 2017?<\/span><\/p>\n

Pes\u00eb vjet m\u00eb par\u00eb, e nj\u00ebjta ndeshje Macron-Le Pen rezultoi n\u00eb nj\u00eb shp\u00ebrthim, me Macron q\u00eb fitoi me 66% t\u00eb votave kund\u00ebr 34% t\u00eb Le Pen. Dukuria shum\u00ebvje\u00e7are e \u2018Frontit Republikan\u2019 francez goditi s\u00ebrish. <\/span><\/p>\n

Me fjal\u00eb t\u00eb tjera, t\u00eb gjith\u00eb votuesit e tjer\u00eb t\u00eb raundit t\u00eb par\u00eb hodh\u00ebn votat e tyre kund\u00ebr Le Pen-it dhe p\u00ebr Macron-in. Votuesit m\u00eb t\u00eb vjet\u00ebr francez\u00eb n\u00eb ve\u00e7anti kan\u00eb nj\u00eb frik\u00eb t\u00eb natyrshme nga \u2018e djathta ekstreme\u2019 dhe n\u00eb mas\u00eb d\u00ebrrmuese votojn\u00eb n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb refleksive kund\u00ebr saj.<\/span><\/p>\n

Gjith\u00e7ka filloi kur paraardh\u00ebsi i Le Pen-it n\u00eb partin\u00eb \u2018Rally National\u2019, babai i saj, Jean-Marie Le Pen, p\u00ebrfitoi nga hapja e ish-presidentit socialist francez Fran\u00e7ois Mitterrand ndaj pjes\u00ebmarrjes elektorale t\u00eb partive m\u00eb t\u00eb vogla n\u00eb zgjedhjet legjislative t\u00eb vitit 1985 dhe p\u00ebrfundoi duke fituar 35 vende n\u00eb Asamblen\u00eb Komb\u00ebtare. <\/span><\/p>\n

Mitterrand \u00ebsht\u00eb akuzuar prej koh\u00ebsh p\u00ebr hapjen e dyerve p\u00ebr korridoret e pushtetit n\u00eb t\u00eb djatht\u00ebn ekstreme, si nj\u00eb dredhi e zgjuar p\u00ebr t\u00eb p\u00ebr\u00e7ar\u00eb p\u00ebrgjithmon\u00eb t\u00eb djatht\u00ebn e establishmentit, duke siguruar k\u00ebshtu dominimin p\u00ebr shum\u00eb vite nga Partia e tij e majt\u00eb konvencionale Socialiste.<\/span><\/p>\n

Por shum\u00eb ka ndryshuar q\u00eb at\u00ebher\u00eb. E djathta dhe e majta konvencionale t\u00eb dyja jan\u00eb shp\u00ebrthyer plot\u00ebsisht. <\/span><\/p>\n

Pas d\u00ebshtimit p\u00ebr t\u00eb marr\u00eb minimumin 5% t\u00eb votave t\u00eb nevojshme p\u00ebr rimbursimin nga shteti t\u00eb shpenzimeve t\u00eb fushat\u00ebs n\u00eb raundin e par\u00eb t\u00eb zgjedhjeve t\u00eb k\u00ebtij viti, kandidatja e Partis\u00eb Republikane t\u00eb s\u00eb djatht\u00ebs konvencionale Val\u00e9rie P\u00e9cresse aktualisht po b\u00ebn thirrje p\u00ebr donacione nga publiku francez p\u00ebr t\u00eb shmangur detyrimin p\u00ebr t\u00eb mbuluar vler\u00ebn e shpenzimeve n\u00eb shum\u00ebn 7 milion\u00eb euro (p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb 5 milion\u00eb euro nga xhepi i saj). <\/span><\/p>\n

N\u00eb t\u00eb majt\u00ebn tradicionale, Partia Socialiste e udh\u00ebhequr nga kryebashkiakja e Parisit Anne Hidalgo mori vet\u00ebm 1.7% mb\u00ebshtetje.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sot, Macron ka bashkuar figurat konvencionale si nga e djathta ashtu edhe nga e majta dhe me sukses i ka quajtur ata si mbrojt\u00ebs centrist\u00eb dhe pragmatik\u00eb t\u00eb status quo-s\u00eb s\u00eb establishmentit francez dhe europian. Jo se francez\u00ebt jan\u00eb t\u00eb emocionuar me paraqitjen e tij. <\/span><\/p>\n

Sondazhet tregojn\u00eb vazhdimisht se popullariteti i Macron \u00ebsht\u00eb rreth 40%. Miratimi i Macron \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb i lart\u00eb n\u00eb mesin e pensionist\u00ebve dhe m\u00eb i ul\u00ebti midis t\u00eb rinjve t\u00eb mosh\u00ebs 25-34 vje\u00e7, sipas nj\u00eb sondazhi t\u00eb Odoxa si dhe midis klas\u00ebs pun\u00ebtore joekzekutive.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kjo nuk duhet t\u00eb jet\u00eb e papritur pasi shifrat pasqyrojn\u00eb ndikimin e dy krizave m\u00eb t\u00eb m\u00ebdha q\u00eb Macron ka menaxhuar gjat\u00eb mandatit t\u00eb tij t\u00eb par\u00eb pes\u00ebvje\u00e7ar: pandemia Covid-19 dhe konflikti n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb. <\/span><\/p>\n

Pensionist\u00ebt jan\u00eb m\u00eb pak t\u00eb ndikuar negativisht prej tyre dhe ndoshta p\u00ebrfituesit m\u00eb t\u00eb m\u00ebdhenj t\u00eb menaxhimit t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00eb t\u00eb pandemis\u00eb dhe urdhrit t\u00eb vaksinimit t\u00eb detyrueshem t\u00eb Macron, t\u00eb cilat kan\u00eb rezultuar n\u00eb humbjen e pun\u00ebs s\u00eb klas\u00ebs pun\u00ebtore. <\/span><\/p>\n

Po k\u00ebshtu mosha e tret\u00eb nuk ndikohet gjithashtu nga zotimi i Macron p\u00ebr t\u00eb rritur mosh\u00ebn e pensionit n\u00eb 65 vje\u00e7. Ata jan\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb rrezikuar dhe m\u00eb t\u00eb ndjesh\u00ebm ndaj sugjerimit, t\u00eb cituar shpesh nga analist\u00ebt n\u00eb shtypin francez, se nj\u00eb vot\u00eb p\u00ebr Le Pen mund t\u00eb sjell\u00eb paq\u00ebndrueshm\u00ebri politike dhe pasoja t\u00eb paparashikuara si p\u00ebr Franc\u00ebn ashtu edhe p\u00ebr Evrop\u00ebn.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb, njer\u00ebzit m\u00eb t\u00eb rinj q\u00eb punojn\u00eb dhe mbajn\u00eb familjet po ndjejn\u00eb ashp\u00ebrsin\u00eb e politikave t\u00eb Macron, t\u00eb cilat kan\u00eb ndihmuar n\u00eb antagonizimin e Rusis\u00eb p\u00ebr operacionin e saj ushtarak n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb, n\u00eb munges\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00eb plani p\u00ebr t\u00eb menaxhuar goditjen ndaj ekonomis\u00eb franceze dhe asaj t\u00eb BE-s\u00eb si rezultat i sanksioneve antiruse.<\/span><\/p>\n

Prandaj, votuesit francez\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb rinj dhe ata t\u00eb klas\u00ebs pun\u00ebtore jan\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb gatsh\u00ebm t\u00eb rrezikojn\u00eb di\u00e7ka t\u00eb re, duke pasur parasysh d\u00ebshtimin e duksh\u00ebm t\u00eb Macron p\u00ebr t\u00eb zbutur kaosin gjat\u00eb pes\u00eb viteve t\u00eb fundit.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sipas nj\u00eb sondazhi t\u00eb ri t\u00eb Institutit Demokraci t\u00eb votuesve francez\u00eb, \u00e7\u00ebshtja m\u00eb e r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme p\u00ebr ta, deri tani, \u00ebsht\u00eb inflacioni, me m\u00eb shum\u00eb t\u00eb anketuar q\u00eb nuk e miratojn\u00eb trajtimin q\u00eb Macron i ka b\u00ebr\u00eb kriz\u00ebs n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb dhe m\u00eb shum\u00eb se gjysma pohojn\u00eb se sanksione e BE-s\u00eb kund\u00ebr Rusis\u00eb kan\u00eb d\u00ebmtuar m\u00eb shum\u00eb Franc\u00ebn sesa Rusin\u00eb. <\/span><\/p>\n

Vet\u00ebm 20% e t\u00eb anketuarve e konsiderojn\u00eb Rusin\u00eb si \u2018k\u00ebrc\u00ebnimin m\u00eb t\u00eb madh p\u00ebr Franc\u00ebn\u2019 (me Kin\u00ebn dhe terrorizmin q\u00eb renditen p\u00ebrpara), dhe m\u00eb shum\u00eb votues francez\u00eb pajtohen sesa nuk pajtohen me pozicionin e Le Pen se Franca duhet t\u00eb ridal\u00eb nga komanda e integruar e NATO-s.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pra, n\u00eb realitet, edhe me votuesit m\u00eb t\u00eb vjet\u00ebr q\u00eb mb\u00ebshtesin n\u00eb mas\u00eb t\u00eb madhe Macronin, q\u00ebndrimet m\u00eb jokonvencionale dhe joestablishment t\u00eb Le Pen gjithsesi po joshin votuesit francez\u00eb t\u00eb cil\u00ebt nuk jan\u00eb t\u00eb emocionuar p\u00ebr udh\u00ebheqjen e Macron, ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht n\u00eb sfer\u00ebn ekonomike.<\/span><\/p>\n

Skandalet po luajn\u00eb nj\u00eb rol edhe n\u00eb dit\u00ebt e fundit t\u00eb fushat\u00ebs. Macron \u00ebsht\u00eb p\u00ebrpjekur t\u00eb justifikoj\u00eb rritjen e p\u00ebrdorimit t\u00eb firmave globale konsulente nga qeveria franceze n\u00ebn udh\u00ebheqjen e tij, n\u00eb shuma prej qindra miliona eurosh t\u00eb fondeve t\u00eb taksapaguesve, sipas nj\u00eb raporti t\u00eb senatit francez. <\/span><\/p>\n

K\u00ebta leht\u00ebsues t\u00eb globalizmit k\u00ebshilluan qeverin\u00eb franceze p\u00ebr vaksinat kund\u00ebr Covid, nd\u00ebrsa p\u00ebrfaq\u00ebsonin gjithashtu prodhues t\u00eb m\u00ebdhenj t\u00eb teknologjis\u00eb dhe kompanit\u00eb farmaceutike. Nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb e v\u00ebshtir\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrfytyrohet se si konflikte t\u00eb tilla interesi mund t\u00eb rezultojn\u00eb n\u00eb urdhra t\u00eb imponuara nga qeveria q\u00eb favorizojn\u00eb interesat e ve\u00e7anta n\u00eb d\u00ebm t\u00eb demokracis\u00eb dhe lirive themelore.<\/span><\/p>\n

Por Le Pen po p\u00ebrballet gjithashtu me nj\u00eb zbulim t\u00eb pap\u00ebrshtatsh\u00ebm p\u00ebrpara gar\u00ebs p\u00ebrfundimtare. Nj\u00eb agjenci e BE-s\u00eb sapo e ka akuzuar at\u00eb p\u00ebr keqp\u00ebrdorim t\u00eb fondeve publike gjat\u00eb koh\u00ebs s\u00eb saj si deputete e Parlamentit Evropian. L\u00ebvizja \u00ebsht\u00eb kulmi i nj\u00eb hetimi q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb zvarritur prej vitesh e q\u00eb ka ngritur dyshime p\u00ebr motive politike p\u00ebr koh\u00ebn e shpalljes.<\/span><\/p>\n

Le Pen \u00ebsht\u00eb e njohur p\u00ebr kund\u00ebrshtimin e saj kund\u00ebr qeverisjes mbikomb\u00ebtare t\u00eb BE-s\u00eb nga lart-posht\u00eb – n\u00eb kontrast me bashk\u00ebpunimin e Macron me t\u00eb. Ajo ka qen\u00eb vazhdimisht e hapur p\u00ebr nevoj\u00ebn q\u00eb Franca t\u00eb rifitoj\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb pavar\u00ebsi dhe sovranitet. <\/span><\/p>\n

Kund\u00ebrshtari i saj i ekstremit t\u00eb majt\u00eb, Jean-Luc M\u00e9lenchon i partis\u00eb \u2018France Unbo\u00ebed\u2019, ka nj\u00eb pozicion t\u00eb ngjash\u00ebm me at\u00eb t\u00eb Le Pen p\u00ebr BE-n\u00eb. Dhe n\u00ebse t\u00eb gjith\u00eb votuesit e tij n\u00eb raundin e par\u00eb mb\u00ebshtesin Le Pen n\u00eb nj\u00eb koalicion t\u00eb madh anti-establishment p\u00ebr t\u00eb mposhtur Macron, kjo do t\u00eb shkaktonte nj\u00eb t\u00ebrmet politik. <\/span><\/p>\n

T\u00eb dy kandidat\u00ebt kan\u00eb k\u00ebmb\u00ebngulur p\u00ebr nj\u00eb bashk\u00ebpunim m\u00eb pak t\u00eb verb\u00ebr me BE-n\u00eb n\u00eb d\u00ebm t\u00eb qytetar\u00ebve francez\u00eb, nd\u00ebrsa Macron i ka kaluar pes\u00eb vitet e fundit<\/strong> duke u sjell\u00eb si \u2018ushtar\u2019 i saj duke kund\u00ebrshtuar t\u00eb mbroj\u00eb interesat e qytetar\u00ebve t\u00eb Franc\u00ebs nga ndikimi i ushtris\u00eb dhe ambiciet e ekonomis\u00eb amerikane.<\/span><\/p>\n

Si M\u00e9lenchon dhe Le Pen gjithashtu puqen n\u00eb nevoj\u00ebn p\u00ebr m\u00eb pak bindje ndaj Uashingtonit. M\u00e9lenchon favorizon nj\u00eb rrjet sigurie socialiste, nd\u00ebrsa Le Pen gradualisht ka l\u00ebvizur drejt politikave p\u00ebr nj\u00eb ekonomi tregu q\u00eb arrijn\u00eb rezultate t\u00eb ngjashme me m\u00eb pak nd\u00ebrhyrje t\u00eb qeveris\u00eb. <\/span><\/p>\n

P\u00ebr shembull, nd\u00ebrsa Macron favorizon \u2018\u00e7eqe\u2019 t\u00eb l\u00ebshuara nga qeveria p\u00ebr t\u00eb kompensuar \u00e7mimet e rritura t\u00eb energjis\u00eb dhe ushqimeve, Le Pen \u00ebsht\u00eb zotuar t\u00eb ul\u00eb taks\u00ebn e shitjes p\u00ebr artikuj t\u00eb till\u00eb n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb l\u00ebr\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb para n\u00eb xhepat e konsumator\u00ebve.<\/span><\/p>\n

Megjithat\u00eb, pavar\u00ebsisht ngjashm\u00ebrive n\u00eb objektivat e tyre, M\u00e9lenchon u ka b\u00ebr\u00eb thirrje mb\u00ebshtet\u00ebsve t\u00eb tij q\u00eb t\u00eb mos i japin Le Pen-it asnj\u00eb vot\u00eb n\u00eb raundin e dyt\u00eb. Pik\u00ebpamja e tij e kahershme \u00ebsht\u00eb se Le Pen, e cila \u00ebsht\u00eb kund\u00ebr urdhrave t\u00eb Macron p\u00ebr Covid dhe ka dal\u00eb kund\u00ebr pozicionit t\u00eb Macron p\u00ebr armatosjen e neo-nazist\u00ebve n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb, duhet t\u00eb kund\u00ebrshtohet me \u00e7do kusht. <\/span><\/p>\n

Si rezultat, 30% e votave nga p\u00ebrfundimi i ngusht\u00eb i M\u00e9lenchon n\u00eb vendin e tret\u00eb deri n\u00eb kualifikimin e Le Pen n\u00eb raundin e dyt\u00eb (22% vs 23%) parashikohet t’i shkojn\u00eb Macron, sipas nj\u00eb sondazhi t\u00eb ri t\u00eb BVA, krahasuar me vet\u00ebm 18% drejt Le Pen. Rreth 52% e votuesve t\u00eb M\u00e9lenchon planifikojn\u00eb t\u00eb abstenojn\u00eb ose t\u00eb hedhin nj\u00eb vot\u00eb t\u00eb bardh\u00eb n\u00eb raundin p\u00ebrfundimtar.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dhe \u00ebsht\u00eb pik\u00ebrisht kjo vot\u00eb abstenimi, bosh apo e padeklaruar ku mund t\u00eb zhvillohen k\u00ebto zgjedhje. Sipas mesatares s\u00eb ponderuar t\u00eb \u2018Financial Times\u2019 t\u00eb t\u00eb gjitha sondazheve t\u00eb disponueshme deri m\u00eb sot, vet\u00ebm 7% e ndan Macron nga Le Pen n\u00eb votimin e s\u00eb diel\u00ebs.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pra, duket se rezultati p\u00ebrfundimisht mund t\u00eb zbres\u00eb n\u00eb motivimin e votuesve. A do t\u00eb jen\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb motivuar francez\u00ebt mbi mosh\u00ebn 65 vje\u00e7 q\u00eb e shohin qasjen konvencionale t\u00eb Macron p\u00ebr t\u00eb shkuar n\u00eb votim p\u00ebr t\u00eb ruajtur status quo-n\u00eb me \u00e7do kusht, pavar\u00ebsisht zhg\u00ebnjimit me drejtimin e p\u00ebrgjithsh\u00ebm t\u00eb vendit?<\/span><\/p>\n

Apo do t\u00eb mobilizohen votuesit m\u00eb t\u00eb rinj t\u00eb klas\u00ebs pun\u00ebtore p\u00ebr t\u00eb kapur t\u00eb drejt\u00ebn p\u00ebr t\u00eb provuar di\u00e7ka t\u00eb re me t\u00eb vetmen mund\u00ebsi q\u00eb do t\u00eb ken\u00eb p\u00ebr ta b\u00ebr\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb p\u00ebr pes\u00eb vitet e ardhshme?<\/span><\/p>\n

*<\/span>Rachel Marsden \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb kolumniste, stratege politike dhe mikprit\u00ebse e emisioneve t\u00eb prodhuara n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb pavarur n\u00eb fr\u00ebngjisht dhe anglisht.<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false,"gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"rendered","format":"html"}]},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

*Nga Rachel Marsden Kur votuesit francez\u00eb t\u00eb shkojn\u00eb n\u00eb qendrat e votimit t\u00eb diel\u00ebn p\u00ebr t\u00eb zgjedhur presidentin e tyre t\u00eb ardhsh\u00ebm, a do t\u00eb pasqyroj\u00eb rezultati at\u00eb t\u00eb zgjedhjeve t\u00eb 2017? Pes\u00eb vjet m\u00eb par\u00eb, e nj\u00ebjta ndeshje Macron-Le Pen rezultoi n\u00eb nj\u00eb shp\u00ebrthim, me Macron q\u00eb fitoi me 66% t\u00eb votave kund\u00ebr 34% […]<\/p>\n","protected":false,"gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"rendered","format":"html"}]},"author":51,"featured_media":519346,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[22,53],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-519345","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ballina","category-fast-foodi"],"gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"link","format":"url"}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/519345","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/51"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=519345"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/519345\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/519346"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=519345"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=519345"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=519345"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}