{"id":515830,"date":"2022-04-06T07:34:18","date_gmt":"2022-04-06T05:34:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/?p=515830"},"modified":"2022-04-06T08:44:37","modified_gmt":"2022-04-06T06:44:37","slug":"rubla-e-mbeshtetur-nga-ari-mund-te-permbyse-lojen-globale-analiza-e-ekspertit","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/2022\/04\/06\/rubla-e-mbeshtetur-nga-ari-mund-te-permbyse-lojen-globale-analiza-e-ekspertit\/","title":{"rendered":"Rubla e mb\u00ebshtetur nga ari mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrmbys\u00eb loj\u00ebn globale – Analiza e ekspertit","gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"rendered","format":"text"}]},"content":{"rendered":"

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Banka e Rusis\u00eb ka rifilluar blerjet e arit k\u00ebt\u00eb jav\u00eb, por m\u00eb e r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishmja, rregullatori po e b\u00ebn k\u00ebt\u00eb me nj\u00eb \u00e7mim fiks prej 5,000 rublash (59 dollar\u00eb) p\u00ebr 1 gram midis 28 marsit dhe 30 qershorit, duke rritur mund\u00ebsin\u00eb e kthimit t\u00eb Rusis\u00eb n\u00eb standardin e arit p\u00ebr her\u00eb t\u00eb par\u00eb n\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb se nj\u00eb shekull.<\/span><\/p>\n

N\u00ebse vendi nd\u00ebrmerr hapin tjet\u00ebr, si\u00e7 \u00ebsht\u00eb propozuar k\u00ebt\u00eb jav\u00eb, p\u00ebr t\u00eb shitur mallrat e tij me \u00e7mim n\u00eb rubla, k\u00ebto l\u00ebvizje t\u00eb kombinuara mund t\u00eb ken\u00eb implikime t\u00eb m\u00ebdha p\u00ebr rubl\u00ebn, dollarin amerikan dhe ekonomin\u00eb globale.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u00ebr t\u00eb marr\u00eb disa p\u00ebrgjigje, RT foli me analistin e metaleve t\u00eb \u00e7muara Ronan Manly n\u00eb BullionStar Singapore.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pse \u00ebsht\u00eb i r\u00ebnd\u00ebsish\u00ebm vendosja e nj\u00eb \u00e7mimi fiks p\u00ebr arin n\u00eb rubla?<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Duke ofruar blerjen e arit nga bankat ruse me nj\u00eb \u00e7mim fiks prej 5,000 rubla p\u00ebr gram, Banka e Rusis\u00eb e ka lidhur rubl\u00ebn me arin dhe, meqen\u00ebse ari tregtohet n\u00eb dollar\u00eb amerikan\u00eb, ka vendosur nj\u00eb \u00e7mim baz\u00eb p\u00ebr rubl\u00ebn n\u00eb terma e dollarit t\u00eb SHBA-s\u00eb.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ne mund ta shohim k\u00ebt\u00eb lidhje n\u00eb veprim q\u00eb nga e premtja e 25 marsit kur Banka e Rusis\u00eb b\u00ebri njoftimin e \u00e7mimit fiks. Rubla tregtohej me rreth 100 p\u00ebr nj\u00eb dollar amerikan n\u00eb at\u00eb koh\u00eb, por q\u00eb at\u00ebher\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb forcuar dhe \u00ebsht\u00eb af\u00ebr 80 p\u00ebr dollarin amerikan. Pse? P\u00ebr shkak se ari \u00ebsht\u00eb tregtuar n\u00eb tregjet nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare me rreth 62 dollar\u00eb amerikan\u00eb p\u00ebr gram q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb e barabart\u00eb me (5000 \/ 62) = rreth 80.5, dhe tregjet dhe tregtar\u00ebt e arbitrazhit tani e kan\u00eb marr\u00eb parasysh, duke e rritur kursin e k\u00ebmbimit RUB\/USD.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pra, rubla tani ka nj\u00eb dysheme ndaj dollarit amerikan, p\u00ebr sa i p\u00ebrket arit. Por ari gjithashtu ka nj\u00eb dysheme, si t\u00eb thuash, sepse 5,000 rubla p\u00ebr gram jan\u00eb 155,500 rubla p\u00ebr ons, dhe me nj\u00eb dysheme RUB\/USD prej rreth 80, ky \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb \u00e7mim ari prej rreth 1,940 dollar\u00eb. Dhe n\u00ebse tregjet per\u00ebndimore t\u00eb arit t\u00eb LBMA\/COMEX p\u00ebrpiqen t\u00eb ulin \u00e7mimin e arit t\u00eb dollarit amerikan, ata do t\u00eb duhet t\u00eb p\u00ebrpiqen t\u00eb dob\u00ebsojn\u00eb gjithashtu rubl\u00ebn ose p\u00ebrndryshe manipulimet do jen\u00eb t\u00eb hapura.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u00ebr m\u00eb tep\u00ebr, me lidhjen e re ari me rubla, n\u00ebse rubla vazhdon t\u00eb forcohet (p\u00ebr shembull p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb k\u00ebrkes\u00ebs s\u00eb krijuar nga pagesat e detyrueshme t\u00eb energjis\u00eb n\u00eb rubla), kjo do t\u00eb reflektohet gjithashtu n\u00eb nj\u00eb \u00e7mim m\u00eb t\u00eb fort\u00eb t\u00eb arit.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00c7far\u00eb do t\u00eb thot\u00eb p\u00ebr naft\u00ebn?<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Rusia \u00ebsht\u00eb eksportuesi m\u00eb i madh n\u00eb bot\u00eb i gazit natyror dhe eksportuesi i tret\u00eb m\u00eb i madh n\u00eb bot\u00eb i naft\u00ebs. Tani po shohim q\u00eb Putini k\u00ebrkon q\u00eb bler\u00ebsit e huaj (importuesit e gazit rus) t\u00eb paguajn\u00eb p\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb gaz natyror duke p\u00ebrdorur rubla. Kjo lidh menj\u00ebher\u00eb \u00e7mimin e gazit natyror me rubla dhe (p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb lidhjes fikse me arin) me \u00e7mimin e arit. Pra, gazi natyror rus tani \u00ebsht\u00eb i lidhur n\u00ebp\u00ebrmjet rubl\u00ebs me arin.<\/span><\/p>\n

E nj\u00ebjta gj\u00eb mund t\u00eb b\u00ebhet tani me naft\u00ebn ruse. N\u00ebse Rusia fillon t\u00eb k\u00ebrkoj\u00eb pages\u00ebn p\u00ebr eksportet e naft\u00ebs me rubla, do t\u00eb ket\u00eb nj\u00eb lidhje t\u00eb menj\u00ebhershme indirekte me arin (p\u00ebrmes \u00e7mimit fiks rubla – lidhja ari). At\u00ebher\u00eb Rusia mund t\u00eb filloj\u00eb t\u00eb pranoj\u00eb arin drejtp\u00ebrdrejt n\u00eb pages\u00eb p\u00ebr eksportet e saj t\u00eb naft\u00ebs. N\u00eb fakt, kjo mund t\u00eb zbatohet p\u00ebr \u00e7do mall, jo vet\u00ebm p\u00ebr naft\u00ebn dhe gazin natyror.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00c7far\u00eb do t\u00eb thot\u00eb kjo p\u00ebr \u00e7mimin e arit?<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Duke luajtur t\u00eb dyja an\u00ebt e ekuacionit, dmth. duke lidhur rubl\u00ebn me arin dhe m\u00eb pas duke lidhur pagesat e energjis\u00eb me rubl\u00ebn, Banka e Rusis\u00eb dhe Kremlini po ndryshojn\u00eb rr\u00ebnj\u00ebsisht t\u00eb gjitha supozimet e pun\u00ebs t\u00eb sistemit t\u00eb tregtis\u00eb globale duke p\u00ebrshpejtuar ndryshimin n\u00eb sistemin monetar global. Ky mur bler\u00ebsish n\u00eb k\u00ebrkim t\u00eb arit fizik p\u00ebr t\u00eb paguar mallrat e v\u00ebrteta sigurisht q\u00eb mund t\u00eb siluroj\u00eb dhe t\u00eb hedh\u00eb n\u00eb er\u00eb tregjet e arit t\u00eb LBMA dhe COMEX.<\/span><\/p>\n

Lidhja fikse midis rubl\u00ebs dhe arit vendos nj\u00eb dysheme n\u00eb kursin RUB\/USD, por gjithashtu nj\u00eb dysheme n\u00eb \u00e7mimin e arit n\u00eb dollar\u00eb amerikan\u00eb. Por p\u00ebrtej k\u00ebsaj, lidhja e arit me pagesat e energjis\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb ngjarja kryesore. Nd\u00ebrsa rritja e k\u00ebrkes\u00ebs p\u00ebr rubla duhet t\u00eb vazhdoj\u00eb t\u00eb forcoj\u00eb norm\u00ebn RUB\/USD dhe t\u00eb shfaqet si nj\u00eb \u00e7mim m\u00eb i lart\u00eb i arit, p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb lidhjes fikse rubla-ar, n\u00ebse Rusia fillon t\u00eb pranoj\u00eb arin drejtp\u00ebrdrejt si pages\u00eb p\u00ebr naft\u00ebn, at\u00ebher\u00eb kjo do t\u00eb ishte nj\u00eb ndryshimi i paradigm\u00ebs s\u00eb re p\u00ebr \u00e7mimin e arit pasi do t\u00eb lidhte \u00e7mimin e naft\u00ebs drejtp\u00ebrdrejt me \u00e7mimin e arit.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u00ebr shembull, Rusia mund t\u00eb filloj\u00eb duke specifikuar se tani do t\u00eb pranoj\u00eb 1 gram ar p\u00ebr fu\u00e7i naft\u00eb. Bler\u00ebsit m\u00eb pas do t\u00eb p\u00ebrpiqeshin t\u00eb blinin arin fizik p\u00ebr t\u00eb paguar eksportet e naft\u00ebs ruse, gj\u00eb q\u00eb nga ana tjet\u00ebr do t\u00eb krijonte tendosje t\u00eb m\u00ebdha n\u00eb tregjet e arit nw Lond\u00ebr dhe Nju Jork, ku i gjith\u00eb zbulimi i ‘\u00e7mimit t\u00eb arit’ bazohet n\u00eb para sintetike dhe t\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetura n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb pjesshme nw ‘derivativ\u00ebt e \u00e7mimit t\u00eb arit’ t\u00eb paalokuara.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00c7far\u00eb do t\u00eb thot\u00eb p\u00ebr rubl\u00ebn?<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Lidhja e rubl\u00ebs me arin n\u00ebp\u00ebrmjet \u00e7mimit fiks t\u00eb Bank\u00ebs s\u00eb Rusis\u00eb tani ka vendosur nj\u00eb dysheme n\u00ebn norm\u00ebn RUB\/USD dhe n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb ka stabilizuar dhe forcuar rubl\u00ebn. K\u00ebrkesa q\u00eb eksportet e gazit natyror t\u00eb paguhen n\u00eb rubla (dhe ndoshta nafta dhe mallra t\u00eb tjera n\u00eb linj\u00eb) do t\u00eb veproj\u00eb p\u00ebrs\u00ebri si stabilizim dhe mb\u00ebshtetje. N\u00ebse shumica e sistemit nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar t\u00eb tregtis\u00eb fillon t’i pranoj\u00eb k\u00ebto rubla p\u00ebr marr\u00ebveshjet e pagesave t\u00eb mallrave, kjo mund ta shtyj\u00eb rubl\u00ebn ruse t\u00eb b\u00ebhet nj\u00eb monedh\u00eb kryesore globale.<\/span><\/p>\n

N\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00ebn koh\u00eb, \u00e7do l\u00ebvizje e Rusis\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb pranuar arin direkt p\u00ebr pagesat e naft\u00ebs do t\u00eb b\u00ebj\u00eb q\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb ar nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar t\u00eb rrjedh\u00eb n\u00eb rezervat ruse, gj\u00eb q\u00eb do t\u00eb forconte gjithashtu bilancin e Bank\u00ebs s\u00eb Rusis\u00eb dhe nga ana tjet\u00ebr do t\u00eb forconte rubl\u00ebn. Biseda p\u00ebr nj\u00eb standard zyrtar t\u00eb arit p\u00ebr rubl\u00ebn mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb e parakohshme, por nj\u00eb rubwl e mb\u00ebshtetur nga ari duhet t\u00eb jet\u00eb di\u00e7ka q\u00eb Banka e Rusis\u00eb ka marr\u00eb n\u00eb konsiderat\u00eb.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00c7far\u00eb do t\u00eb thot\u00eb p\u00ebr monedhat e tjera?<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Peizazhi monetar global po ndryshon me shpejt\u00ebsi dhe bankat qendrore n\u00eb mbar\u00eb bot\u00ebn padyshim po e marrin parasysh. Sanksionet per\u00ebndimore t\u00eb tilla si ngrirja e shumic\u00ebs s\u00eb rezervave valutore t\u00eb Rusis\u00eb gjat\u00eb p\u00ebrpjekjes p\u00ebr t\u00eb sanksionuar arin rus, tani e kan\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb t\u00eb qart\u00eb se t\u00eb drejtat e pron\u00ebsis\u00eb mbi rezervat FX t\u00eb mbajtura jasht\u00eb vendit mund t\u00eb mos respektohen dhe po ashtu, se ari i bank\u00ebs qendrore t\u00eb huaj q\u00eb mbahet n\u00eb vende si n\u00eb Bank\u00ebn e Anglis\u00eb dhe Rezervwn Federale t\u00eb Nju Jorkut, nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb p\u00ebrtej konfiskimit.<\/span><\/p>\n

Prandaj, qeverit\u00eb e tjera joper\u00ebndimore dhe bankat qendrore do t\u00eb ken\u00eb nj\u00eb interes t\u00eb madh q\u00eb Rusia t\u00eb lidh\u00eb rubl\u00ebn me arin dhe t\u00eb lidh\u00eb pagesat e eksportit t\u00eb mallrave me rubl\u00ebn. Me fjal\u00eb t\u00eb tjera, n\u00ebse Rusia fillon t\u00eb pranoj\u00eb pages\u00ebn p\u00ebr naft\u00ebn n\u00eb ar, at\u00ebher\u00eb vendet e tjera mund t\u00eb ndjejn\u00eb nevoj\u00ebn p\u00ebr t\u00eb ndjekur shembullin.<\/span><\/p>\n

Shikoni kush, p\u00ebrve\u00e7 SHBA-s\u00eb, jan\u00eb prodhuesit m\u00eb t\u00eb m\u00ebdhenj t\u00eb naft\u00ebs dhe gazit natyror n\u00eb bot\u00eb – Irani, Kina, Arabia Saudite, Emiratet e Bashkuara Arabe, Katari. Natyrisht, t\u00eb gjitha vendet e BRICS dhe vendet euroaziatike po e ndjekin t\u00eb gjith\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb nga af\u00ebr. N\u00ebse r\u00ebnia e dollarit amerikan \u00ebsht\u00eb af\u00ebr, t\u00eb gjitha k\u00ebto vende do t\u00eb duan q\u00eb monedhat e tyre t\u00eb jen\u00eb p\u00ebrfituese t\u00eb nj\u00eb rendi t\u00eb ri monetar shum\u00ebpal\u00ebsh.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00c7far\u00eb do t\u00eb thot\u00eb kjo p\u00ebr dollarin amerikan?<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Q\u00eb nga viti 1971, statusi i rezerv\u00ebs globale t\u00eb dollarit amerikan \u00ebsht\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetur nga nafta dhe epoka e petrodollar\u00ebve. Kjo ka qen\u00eb e mundur vet\u00ebm p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb p\u00ebrdorimit t\u00eb vazhduesh\u00ebm t\u00eb dollar\u00ebve amerikan\u00eb n\u00eb bot\u00eb p\u00ebr tregtimin e naft\u00ebs dhe aft\u00ebsis\u00eb s\u00eb SHBA-s\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb parandaluar \u00e7do konkurrent ndaj dollarit amerikan. Por ajo q\u00eb po shohim tani duket si fillimi i fundit t\u00eb atij sistemi 50-vje\u00e7ar dhe lindja e nj\u00eb sistemi t\u00eb ri monetar shum\u00ebpal\u00ebsh t\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetur nga ari dhe mallrat. Ngrirja e rezervave valutore t\u00eb Rusis\u00eb ka qen\u00eb shkas. Vendet gjigante t\u00eb mallrave t\u00eb rwndwsishme t\u00eb bot\u00ebs si Kina dhe vendet eksportuese t\u00eb naft\u00ebs tani mund t\u00eb mendojn\u00eb se tani \u00ebsht\u00eb koha p\u00ebr t\u00eb kaluar n\u00eb nj\u00eb sistem t\u00eb ri monetar m\u00eb t\u00eb drejt\u00eb. Nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb \u00e7udi, ata e kan\u00eb diskutuar prej vitesh kwtw gjw. Nd\u00ebrsa \u00ebsht\u00eb ende her\u00ebt p\u00ebr t\u00eb th\u00ebn\u00eb se si do t\u00eb ndikohet dollari amerikan, ai do t\u00eb dal\u00eb nga kjo periudh\u00eb m\u00eb i dob\u00ebt dhe m\u00eb pak me ndikim se m\u00eb par\u00eb.<\/span><\/p>\n

Cilat jan\u00eb pasojat?<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

L\u00ebvizja e Bank\u00ebs s\u00eb Rusis\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb lidhur rubl\u00ebn me arin dhe p\u00ebr t\u00eb lidhur pagesat e mallrave me rubl\u00ebn \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb ndryshim paradigme q\u00eb media per\u00ebndimore ende nuk e ka kuptuar. Nd\u00ebrsa dominotw rrwzohen, k\u00ebto ngjarje mund t\u00eb jehojn\u00eb n\u00eb m\u00ebnyra t\u00eb ndryshme. Rritja e k\u00ebrkes\u00ebs p\u00ebr ar fizik. Shp\u00ebrthime n\u00eb tregjet e arit. Nj\u00eb \u00e7mim ari i rivler\u00ebsuar. Nj\u00eb zhvendosje nga dollari amerikan. Rritja e tregtis\u00eb dypal\u00ebshe n\u00eb mallra midis qarqeve joper\u00ebndimore n\u00eb monedha t\u00eb tjera p\u00ebrve\u00e7 dollarit amerikan.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false,"gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"rendered","format":"html"}]},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Banka e Rusis\u00eb ka rifilluar blerjet e arit k\u00ebt\u00eb jav\u00eb, por m\u00eb e r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishmja, rregullatori po e b\u00ebn k\u00ebt\u00eb me nj\u00eb \u00e7mim fiks prej 5,000 rublash (59 dollar\u00eb) p\u00ebr 1 gram midis 28 marsit dhe 30 qershorit, duke rritur mund\u00ebsin\u00eb e kthimit t\u00eb Rusis\u00eb n\u00eb standardin e arit p\u00ebr her\u00eb t\u00eb par\u00eb n\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb […]<\/p>\n","protected":false,"gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"rendered","format":"html"}]},"author":51,"featured_media":515832,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[22,53],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-515830","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ballina","category-fast-foodi"],"gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"link","format":"url"}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/515830","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/51"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=515830"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/515830\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/515832"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=515830"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=515830"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=515830"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}