{"id":429732,"date":"2021-02-14T07:30:18","date_gmt":"2021-02-14T06:30:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hashtag.al\/?p=429732"},"modified":"2021-02-14T06:56:48","modified_gmt":"2021-02-14T05:56:48","slug":"a-po-ndryshon-modeli-ekonomik-i-vendit","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/2021\/02\/14\/a-po-ndryshon-modeli-ekonomik-i-vendit\/","title":{"rendered":"A po ndryshon modeli ekonomik i vendit?","gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"rendered","format":"text"}]},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

P\u00ebrshkall\u00ebzimi i kriz\u00ebs e zbehu gradualisht diskutimin rreth modelit ekonomik, por, a ka ndryshuar sadopak struktura e ekonomis\u00eb shqiptare n\u00eb afatin e gjat\u00eb? Debati me ekspert\u00ebt.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Af\u00ebrsisht nj\u00eb dekad\u00eb m\u00eb par\u00eb, Banka e Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb u shpreh publikisht lidhur me nevoj\u00ebn p\u00ebr t\u00eb nd\u00ebrtuar nj\u00eb model t\u00eb ri ekonomik p\u00ebr Shqip\u00ebrin\u00eb. Mesazhi ishte q\u00eb ekonomia shqiptare duhet t\u00eb shk\u00ebputej nga nj\u00eb model i mb\u00ebshtetur, n\u00eb mas\u00ebn d\u00ebrrmuese, te tregtia dhe konsumi i mallrave t\u00eb importuara dhe t\u00eb rriste pesh\u00ebn e sektor\u00ebve prodhues n\u00eb ekonomi.<\/p>\n

P\u00ebrshkall\u00ebzimi i kriz\u00ebs e zbehu gradualisht diskutimin rreth modelit ekonomik, por, a ka ndryshuar sadopak struktura e ekonomis\u00eb shqiptare n\u00eb afatin e gjat\u00eb? P\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb q\u00ebllim, revista \u201cMonitor\u201d ka marr\u00eb n\u00eb analiz\u00eb ndryshimet n\u00eb struktur\u00ebn e Vler\u00ebs s\u00eb Shtuar Bruto, sipas metod\u00ebs s\u00eb prodhimit n\u00eb 20 vitet e fundit. T\u00eb dh\u00ebnat finale t\u00eb INSTAT arrijn\u00eb deri n\u00eb vitin 2018 dhe serin\u00eb krahasuese e kemi nisur nga viti 1998, kur ekonomia shqiptare sapo kishte nisur t\u00eb reanimohej nga kriza e r\u00ebnd\u00eb e vitit 1997.<\/p>\n

Shifrat tregojn\u00eb se, n\u00eb thelb, ekonomia shqiptare, n\u00eb dy dekadat e fundit ka rritur m\u00eb shum\u00eb var\u00ebsin\u00eb nga sektori i sh\u00ebrbimeve. Vitet 2017 dhe 2018 sh\u00ebnuan edhe kontributin m\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb t\u00eb sh\u00ebrbimeve n\u00eb ekonomi p\u00ebr 20 vitet e fundit, sip\u00ebr nivelit t\u00eb 54%. P\u00ebr periudh\u00ebn 2009-2018, sh\u00ebrbimet kan\u00eb sjell\u00eb mesatarisht rreth 52.5%, nga 50.5% q\u00eb kishte qen\u00eb n\u00eb periudh\u00ebn 1998-2008.<\/p>\n

Deg\u00ebt prodhuese t\u00eb ekonomis\u00eb, t\u00eb marra s\u00eb bashku, p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb bujq\u00ebsin\u00eb p\u00ebr 10 vitet e fundit t\u00eb mbuluara nga statistikat, kan\u00eb sjell\u00eb nj\u00eb kontribut mesatar prej rreth 35.2%, nga 34.2% n\u00eb dekad\u00ebn pararend\u00ebse. Nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb, kontributi i sektorit t\u00eb nd\u00ebrtimit n\u00eb 10 vitet e fundit ka r\u00ebn\u00eb n\u00eb 12.6%, nga 15.7% n\u00eb periudh\u00ebn 1998-2008. N\u00eb nj\u00eb k\u00ebndv\u00ebshtrim t\u00eb p\u00ebrgjithsh\u00ebm, ajo q\u00eb v\u00ebrehet n\u00eb dekad\u00ebn e fundit \u00ebsht\u00eb r\u00ebnia e pesh\u00ebs s\u00eb sektorit t\u00eb nd\u00ebrtimit, me z\u00ebvend\u00ebsim t\u00eb kontributit t\u00eb k\u00ebtij sektori sidomos nga sh\u00ebrbimet dhe m\u00eb pak nga prodhimi.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Pesha e bujq\u00ebsis\u00eb ka r\u00ebn\u00eb ndjesh\u00ebm\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Bujq\u00ebsia ka qen\u00eb historikisht sektori m\u00eb i madh n\u00eb ekonomin\u00eb shqiptare dhe i till\u00eb ngelet edhe sot. Por, pesha specifike e bujq\u00ebsis\u00eb n\u00eb vler\u00ebn e shtuar t\u00eb prodhuar n\u00eb vend \u00ebsht\u00eb ndjesh\u00ebm m\u00eb e ul\u00ebt krahasuar me 20 vite m\u00eb par\u00eb. N\u00eb vitin 1998, bujq\u00ebsia sillte pothuajse 33% t\u00eb prodhimit n\u00eb vend. N\u00eb vitet pasardh\u00ebse, rim\u00ebk\u00ebmbja e sektor\u00ebve t\u00eb tjer\u00eb nga shoku i vitit 1997 b\u00ebri q\u00eb pesha specifike e bujq\u00ebsis\u00eb t\u00eb binte gradualisht.<\/p>\n

Ky sektor preku pik\u00ebn m\u00eb t\u00eb ul\u00ebt n\u00eb vitin 2009, me rreth 19.4% t\u00eb vler\u00ebs s\u00eb shtuar n\u00eb ekonomi. Gjat\u00eb dekad\u00ebs n\u00eb vijim, bujq\u00ebsia sh\u00ebnoi p\u00ebrmir\u00ebsim t\u00eb leht\u00eb, duke q\u00ebndruar p\u00ebrgjith\u00ebsisht n\u00eb intervalin mes 21% dhe 23% t\u00eb VSHB-s\u00eb. N\u00eb tre vitet e fundit (2016-2018), megjithat\u00eb, bujq\u00ebsia s\u00ebrish ka shfaqur nj\u00eb tendenc\u00eb n\u00eb r\u00ebnie n\u00eb pesh\u00ebn specifike n\u00eb ekonomi.<\/p>\n

Megjith\u00ebse bujq\u00ebsia \u00ebsht\u00eb nd\u00ebr sektor\u00ebt ku politika tenton t\u00eb v\u00ebr\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb n\u00eb dukje arritje, n\u00eb vitet e fundit ajo po rritet me ritme m\u00eb t\u00eb ul\u00ebta se pjesa tjet\u00ebr e ekonomis\u00eb. Ky sektor vuan nga parcelizimi, konkurrueshm\u00ebria e ul\u00ebt dhe probleme t\u00eb thella strukturore, q\u00eb e b\u00ebjn\u00eb t\u00eb v\u00ebshtir\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetjen me financime.<\/p>\n

Zhvillimi i bujq\u00ebsis\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb tentuar t\u00eb nxitet me skema vjetore mb\u00ebshtetjeje, por q\u00eb, po t\u00eb shohim rritjen e sektorit n\u00eb vitet e fundit, nuk kan\u00eb dh\u00ebn\u00eb rezultate shum\u00eb t\u00eb k\u00ebnaqshme. Duke filluar nga viti 2021, qeveria ka rikthyer nj\u00eb skem\u00eb t\u00eb nxitjes s\u00eb sektorit n\u00ebp\u00ebrmjet dh\u00ebnies s\u00eb karburantit pa akciz\u00eb. Kjo l\u00ebvizje synon t\u00eb ul\u00eb kostot dhe t\u00eb rris\u00eb konkurrueshm\u00ebrin\u00eb e prodhimit bujq\u00ebsor.<\/p>\n

Nafta pa akciz\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb incentiv\u00eb e provuar m\u00eb par\u00eb, deri n\u00eb vitin 2005. N\u00eb at\u00eb rast, skema solli m\u00eb shum\u00eb abuzime, sesa p\u00ebrfitime n\u00eb kuptimin e konkurrueshm\u00ebris\u00eb s\u00eb sektorit. N\u00eb buxhetin 2021, bujq\u00ebsia do t\u00eb p\u00ebrfitoj\u00eb rreth 13 miliard\u00eb lek\u00eb, nga t\u00eb cilat 7.6 miliard\u00eb lek\u00eb do t\u00eb jen\u00eb investime dhe 5.2 miliard\u00eb lek\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetje direkte. Pritet q\u00eb shpenzimet p\u00ebr bujq\u00ebsin\u00eb ndaj totalit t\u00eb shpenzimeve buxhetore t\u00eb rriten n\u00eb 3.8%, nga 3.2% q\u00eb parashikoheshin n\u00eb buxhetin e vitit 2020.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

Nd\u00ebrtimi n\u00eb ngritje t\u00eb leht\u00eb, por larg pikut t\u00eb 2017<\/strong><\/p>\n

Zhvillimi i sektorit t\u00eb nd\u00ebrtimit ka qen\u00eb, n\u00eb nj\u00ebfar\u00eb m\u00ebnyre, simbol i modelit ekonomik q\u00eb u formula n\u00eb Shqip\u00ebri n\u00eb fundin e viteve \u201990 dhe fillimin e viteve 2000. Ky sektor njohu nj\u00eb shp\u00ebrthim p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb zhvendosjeve t\u00eb m\u00ebdha demografike nga zonat rurale dhe periferike drejt qyteteve t\u00eb m\u00ebdha t\u00eb vendit.<\/p>\n

Ai u nxit edhe nga nevoja p\u00ebr ngritjen e kapaciteteve turistike dhe p\u00ebr t\u00eb shfryt\u00ebzuar potencialet e m\u00ebdha ekonomike q\u00eb ofronte bregdeti shqiptar. Nj\u00eb faktor tjet\u00ebr q\u00eb nxiti investimet n\u00eb nd\u00ebrtim ishte prapambetja e madhe e infrastruktur\u00ebs, q\u00eb shtronte nevoja t\u00eb m\u00ebdha p\u00ebr investime publike, sidomos n\u00eb rrug\u00eb.<\/p>\n

T\u00eb gjith\u00eb k\u00ebta faktor\u00eb, b\u00ebn\u00eb q\u00eb pesha e nd\u00ebrtimit n\u00eb ekonomin\u00eb shqiptare t\u00eb rritej ndjesh\u00ebm nga 8.13% n\u00eb vitin 1998, n\u00eb nj\u00eb nivel piku prej 18.31% n\u00eb vitin 2007. Sidomos pas vitit 2010, pesha e nd\u00ebrtimit filloi nj\u00eb r\u00ebnie dometh\u00ebn\u00ebse. Ajo u shkaktua nga ngopja e tregut t\u00eb nd\u00ebrtimit, por edhe nga kontributi m\u00eb i kufizuar i sektorit publik, p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb rritjes s\u00eb shpejt\u00eb t\u00eb borxhit.<\/p>\n

Nd\u00ebrtimi arriti pik\u00ebn m\u00eb t\u00eb ul\u00ebt n\u00eb vitin 2014, me 9.87% t\u00eb PBB-s\u00eb, p\u00ebr t\u2019u rim\u00ebk\u00ebmbur leht\u00eb gjat\u00eb viteve n\u00eb vijim, ku ka q\u00ebndruar pak sip\u00ebr nivelit prej 10% t\u00eb VSHB-s\u00eb. Rim\u00ebk\u00ebmbja e nd\u00ebrtimit duket se \u00ebsht\u00eb p\u00ebrcaktuar sidomos nga kthimi i investimeve n\u00eb segmentin rezidencial, ku sidomos n\u00eb kryeqytet, n\u00eb pes\u00eb vitet e fundit, \u00ebsht\u00eb regjistruar rritje e shpejt\u00eb e \u00e7mimeve. Rritja e ofert\u00ebs s\u00eb nd\u00ebrtimit dhe sidomos e \u00e7mimeve nuk gjen shum\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetje n\u00eb faktor\u00ebt thelb\u00ebsor\u00eb ekonomik\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Mes ekspert\u00ebve dhe agjent\u00ebve t\u00eb tregut, p\u00ebrgjith\u00ebsisht ekziston nj\u00eb konsensus se rritja e nd\u00ebrtimit gjat\u00eb viteve t\u00eb fundit \u00ebsht\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetur shum\u00eb nga kanalizimi n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb sektor i parave prej aktiviteteve t\u00eb jasht\u00ebligjshme. Ndikim pozitiv, gjithsesi, ka dh\u00ebn\u00eb edhe rritja e ofert\u00ebs p\u00ebr kredi hipotekore nga sektori bankar dhe normat e ul\u00ebta historike t\u00eb interesit, q\u00eb i kan\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00ebrheq\u00ebse investimet n\u00eb pasuri t\u00eb paluajtshme.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Industria \u00ebsht\u00eb rritur, por medalja ka edhe nj\u00eb an\u00eb tjet\u00ebr<\/strong><\/p>\n

Nj\u00eb tregues i r\u00ebnd\u00ebsish\u00ebm i zhvillimit t\u00eb nj\u00eb ekonomie \u00ebsht\u00eb shkalla e industrializimit. A \u00ebsht\u00eb sot Shqip\u00ebria nj\u00eb ekonomi m\u00eb e industrializuar krahasuar me 20 vite m\u00eb par\u00eb? N\u00ebse e thjeshtojm\u00eb \u00e7\u00ebshtjen, p\u00ebrgjigjja do t\u00eb ishte po, sot jemi nj\u00eb ekonomi ku industria ka nj\u00eb pesh\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb periudh\u00ebn 2009-2018, pesha e industris\u00eb nxjerr\u00ebse dhe asaj p\u00ebrpunuese n\u00eb ekonomi ka arritur n\u00eb nj\u00eb nivel mesatar prej 9.1%. N\u00eb fundin e viteve \u201990 dhe fillimin e viteve 2000, pesha e k\u00ebtyre sektor\u00ebve n\u00eb ekonomi ishte pran\u00eb nivelit t\u00eb 6% (6.4% p\u00ebr periudh\u00ebn 1998-2008). Nj\u00eb p\u00ebrmir\u00ebsim i ndjesh\u00ebm u pa sidomos pas vitit 2011, kur pesha e industris\u00eb n\u00eb ekonomi, p\u00ebr her\u00eb t\u00eb par\u00eb n\u00eb epok\u00ebn postkomuniste arriti nivele dyshifrore.<\/p>\n

Kontributi m\u00eb i lart\u00eb i industris\u00eb n\u00eb ekonomi u arrit n\u00eb vitin 2014, me mbi 11.8% t\u00eb VSHB-s\u00eb, nd\u00ebrsa pas k\u00ebtij viti, pesha specifike e industris\u00eb n\u00eb ekonomi p\u00ebsoi s\u00ebrish r\u00ebnie. Periudha e pikut t\u00eb \u201cindustrializimit\u201d t\u00eb ekonomis\u00eb n\u00eb fakt p\u00ebrkon me rritjen e pesh\u00ebs s\u00eb industris\u00eb nxjerr\u00ebse, q\u00eb p\u00ebr periudh\u00ebn 2012-2015 arriti t\u00eb sillte nga 5% deri n\u00eb 6% t\u00eb vler\u00ebs s\u00eb shtuar n\u00eb ekonomi.<\/p>\n

Kjo v\u00eb n\u00eb dukje edhe an\u00ebn tjet\u00ebr t\u00eb medaljes, q\u00eb n\u00eb fakt rritja e pesh\u00ebs s\u00eb industris\u00eb n\u00eb ekonomi lidhet shum\u00eb me shfryt\u00ebzimin e l\u00ebnd\u00ebve t\u00eb para dhe sidomos t\u00eb naft\u00ebs bruto. Shfryt\u00ebzimi \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb proces i fundm\u00eb dhe me cikle, n\u00eb var\u00ebsi t\u00eb ecuris\u00eb s\u00eb \u00e7mimeve t\u00eb l\u00ebnd\u00ebve t\u00eb para, q\u00eb p\u00ebrcakton edhe ciklin e investimeve dhe t\u00eb prodhimit. Shfryt\u00ebzimi i pasurive n\u00ebntok\u00ebsore dhe eksportimi i tyre pa vler\u00eb t\u00eb shtuar sjell p\u00ebrfitime m\u00eb t\u00eb vogla p\u00ebr ekonomin\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Segmenti q\u00eb sjell m\u00eb shum\u00eb vler\u00eb t\u00eb shtuar, industria p\u00ebrpunuese, n\u00eb fakt, ka nj\u00eb rritje m\u00eb modeste. P\u00ebr periudh\u00ebn 2017-2018, industria p\u00ebrpunuese kaloi p\u00ebr her\u00eb t\u00eb par\u00eb kufirin e 7% t\u00eb VSHB-s\u00eb. Nj\u00ebzet vite m\u00eb par\u00eb, industria p\u00ebrpunuese p\u00ebrb\u00ebnte af\u00ebrsisht 5% t\u00eb prodhimit n\u00eb ekonomi. K\u00ebto shifra tregojn\u00eb se industrializimi i mir\u00ebfillt\u00eb i ekonomis\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb ende i zbeht\u00eb dhe i ngadalt\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Gjithashtu, industria p\u00ebrpunuese ka nj\u00eb an\u00eb tjet\u00ebr t\u00eb medaljes. N\u00eb pjes\u00ebn m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe, industria p\u00ebrpunuese p\u00ebrb\u00ebhet nga sektori i fasoneris\u00eb, q\u00eb shfryt\u00ebzon krahun e lir\u00eb t\u00eb pun\u00ebs p\u00ebr t\u00eb punuar me porosi nga jasht\u00eb. Kjo praktik\u00eb p\u00ebrb\u00ebn themelin e industris\u00eb s\u00eb veshjeve, k\u00ebpuc\u00ebve, p\u00ebrpunimit t\u00eb peshkut dhe asaj automotive n\u00eb Shqip\u00ebri.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb k\u00ebto aktivitete, vet\u00ebm nj\u00eb pjes\u00eb e kufizuar e vler\u00ebs s\u00eb shtuar krijohet dhe ngelet n\u00eb vend. Studimet krahasuese tregojn\u00eb se industria p\u00ebrpunuese n\u00eb Shqip\u00ebri ka nivele t\u00eb dob\u00ebta produktiviteti, \u00e7ka mund t\u00eb shpjegohet kryesisht me faktin se k\u00ebto biznese tentojn\u00eb ta mb\u00ebshtesin konkurrueshm\u00ebrin\u00eb te krahu i lir\u00eb i pun\u00ebs, pa u orientuar shum\u00eb drejt investimeve q\u00eb mund t\u00eb rrisin automatizimin dhe p\u00ebrdorimin e teknologjive t\u00eb reja n\u00eb prodhim.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

Energjia nuk arriti pesh\u00ebn e nj\u00eb \u201csuperfuqie\u201d energjetike<\/strong><\/p>\n

Brenda industris\u00eb, sektori energjetik ka nevoj\u00eb p\u00ebr nj\u00eb k\u00ebndv\u00ebshtrim t\u00eb ve\u00e7ant\u00eb, p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb karakteristikave dhe problemeve specifike. N\u00eb pjes\u00ebn m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe, ky \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb sektor n\u00eb pron\u00ebsi t\u00eb qeveris\u00eb dhe q\u00eb funksionon kryesisht me \u00e7mime t\u00eb rregulluara nga entet publike. N\u00eb 20 vitet e fundit, sektori ka vuajtur problemet e keqmenaxhimit dhe var\u00ebsis\u00eb s\u00eb lart\u00eb nga burimet hidrike.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb t\u00ebr\u00ebsi, pesha e k\u00ebtij sektori n\u00eb ekonomi ka nj\u00eb rritje t\u00eb leht\u00eb, duke reflektuar edhe p\u00ebrmir\u00ebsimet e vogla dhe t\u00eb ngadalta n\u00eb zhvillim dhe menaxhim. Sidoqoft\u00eb, ky sektor ka ende luhatje t\u00eb m\u00ebdha nga viti n\u00eb vit, t\u00eb lidhura kryesisht me prurjet hidrike q\u00eb jan\u00eb p\u00ebrcaktuese n\u00eb nivelin e prodhimit. Mesatarja e pesh\u00ebs s\u00eb sektorit t\u00eb energjis\u00eb dhe ujit n\u00eb VSHB p\u00ebr periudh\u00ebn 2009-2018, ishte rreth 3.64%, nga 3.33% q\u00eb ishte mesatarja e viteve 1998-2008.<\/p>\n

Kontributi m\u00eb i lart\u00eb i energjis\u00eb n\u00eb ekonomi u regjistrua n\u00eb vitin 2016, me 4.68%. Megjithat\u00eb, n\u00eb vlera relative, rritja mesatare e pesh\u00ebs s\u00eb sektorit energjetik n\u00eb ekonomi \u00ebsht\u00eb e vog\u00ebl. Pas vitit 2007, nisi nj\u00eb proces i vrullsh\u00ebm koncesionesh p\u00ebr nd\u00ebrtimin e hidrocentraleve t\u00eb reja. Me gjith\u00eb rritjen e kapacitetit t\u00eb instaluar dhe prodhimit nga k\u00ebto impiante, pesha e sektorit n\u00eb ekonomi \u00ebsht\u00eb tregues i nj\u00eb \u201csuperfuqie energjetike\u201d, q\u00eb ishte edhe slogani politik i fushat\u00ebs s\u00eb koncesioneve n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb sektor.<\/p>\n

Tregtia \u00ebsht\u00eb stabilizuar pran\u00eb nivelit 12%<\/strong><\/p>\n

Tregtia sot ka nj\u00eb pesh\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb ul\u00ebt n\u00eb ekonomin\u00eb shqiptare nga sa ishte 20 vite m\u00eb par\u00eb. Megjithat\u00eb, ky mbetet sektori i dyt\u00eb m\u00eb i madh i ekonomis\u00eb shqiptare, pas bujq\u00ebsis\u00eb. T\u00eb dh\u00ebnat e INSTAT tregojn\u00eb se n\u00eb dekad\u00ebn e fundit, pesha e tregtis\u00eb kundrejt Vler\u00ebs s\u00eb Shtuar Bruto \u00ebsht\u00eb stabilizuar n\u00eb intervalin midis 12% dhe 13%. N\u00eb fund t\u00eb viteve \u201990, tregtia p\u00ebrb\u00ebnte af\u00ebrsisht 20% t\u00eb prodhimit vendas, me nj\u00eb tendenc\u00eb graduale n\u00eb r\u00ebnie n\u00eb dekad\u00ebn e par\u00eb t\u00eb mij\u00ebvje\u00e7arit t\u00eb tret\u00eb.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb terma relativ\u00eb, r\u00ebnia \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb e ndjeshme n\u00eb segmentin e tregtis\u00eb me pakic\u00eb, q\u00eb aktualisht p\u00ebrb\u00ebn rreth 3.8% t\u00eb VSHB-s\u00eb, nivel ky pothuajse n\u00eb gjysm\u00ebn e atij t\u00eb sh\u00ebnuar n\u00eb fillim t\u00eb viteve 2000. Tregtia me shumic\u00eb, n\u00eb vitet e fundit, \u00ebsht\u00eb luhatur n\u00eb intervalin midis 7% dhe 8%, nga rreth 11% q\u00eb zinte n\u00eb ekonomi rreth 20 vite m\u00eb par\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Sektori financiar arriti maj\u00ebn n\u00eb vitin 2008<\/strong><\/p>\n

Pesha e sektorit financiar n\u00eb ekonomin\u00eb shqiptare ka ndjekur, n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb pak a shum\u00eb proporcionale, trajektoren e zhvillimit t\u00eb sistemit bankar n\u00eb vend, q\u00eb ngelet segmenti me pesh\u00ebn d\u00ebrrmuese n\u00eb t\u00eb. N\u00eb fund t\u00eb viteve \u201990, sektori financiar jepte vet\u00ebm 1% t\u00eb kontributit n\u00eb krijimin e vler\u00ebs s\u00eb shtuar n\u00eb ekonomi. Pas vitit 2004, pesha e sektorit n\u00eb ekonomi filloi t\u00eb rritej ndjesh\u00ebm.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb vitin 2008, viti i shp\u00ebrthimit t\u00eb kriz\u00ebs financiare, sektori financiar arriti pesh\u00ebn m\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb n\u00eb ekonomin\u00eb shqiptare, me 3.24%. Pas vitit 2009, pesha e k\u00ebtij sektori n\u00eb ekonomi p\u00ebsoi r\u00ebnie dhe gjat\u00eb dekad\u00ebs n\u00eb vijim, p\u00ebrgjith\u00ebsisht ka q\u00ebndruar n\u00eb intervalin mes 2.6% dhe 3%.<\/p>\n

Rritja e konkurrenc\u00ebs e tkurri pesh\u00ebn e telekomunikacioneve<\/strong><\/p>\n

Nj\u00eb tjet\u00ebr sektor strategjik i sh\u00ebrbimeve, telekomunikacionet, kan\u00eb ndjekur nj\u00eb trajektore t\u00eb ngjashme me sistemin financiar. Pesha e k\u00ebtij sektori nisi t\u00eb rritej n\u00eb fillim t\u00eb viteve 2000 dhe arriti nivelin m\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb prej 4.83% t\u00eb VSHB-s\u00eb n\u00eb vitin 2007. Pasi q\u00ebndroi n\u00eb nivele relativisht t\u00eb larta edhe n\u00eb dy vitet n\u00eb vijim, pas vitit 2010 pesha e telekomunikacioneve n\u00eb ekonomi p\u00ebsoi r\u00ebnie t\u00eb ndjeshme. N\u00eb vitin 2018, sektori p\u00ebrb\u00ebnte vet\u00ebm 1.69% t\u00eb vler\u00ebs s\u00eb shtuar, niveli m\u00eb i ul\u00ebt n\u00eb 20 vitet e fundit.<\/p>\n

Kjo trajektore mund t\u00eb shpjegohet kryesisht me ciklin e zhvillimit t\u00eb sh\u00ebrbimeve celulare n\u00eb vend. Deri n\u00eb vitin 2010, operator\u00ebt siguronin t\u00eb ardhura dhe fitime t\u00eb majme, p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb konkurrenc\u00ebs s\u00eb kufizuar n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb treg. Pas vitit 2010, gj\u00ebrat ndryshuan rr\u00ebnj\u00ebsisht. Hyrja n\u00eb treg e dy operator\u00ebve t\u00eb rinj e rriti ndjesh\u00ebm konkurrenc\u00ebn dhe shqiptar\u00ebt shpenzuan m\u00eb pak p\u00ebr sh\u00ebrbimet e komunikimit t\u00eb l\u00ebvizsh\u00ebm.<\/p>\n

Arg\u00ebtimi dhe \u00e7lodhja e kan\u00eb rritur me tre her\u00eb pesh\u00ebn n\u00eb ekonomi<\/strong><\/p>\n

N\u00eb harkun e 20 viteve t\u00eb fundit, ka nj\u00eb tendenc\u00eb t\u00eb qart\u00eb rritjeje t\u00eb pesh\u00ebs q\u00eb z\u00eb sektori i arteve, arg\u00ebtimit dhe \u00e7lodhjes n\u00eb prodhimin komb\u00ebtar t\u00eb vendit. Nga 0.3-0.4% n\u00eb fillim t\u00eb viteve 2000, sektori ka arritur n\u00eb 1.2-1.3% n\u00eb vitet t\u00eb fundit. Rritja e pesh\u00ebs s\u00eb sektor\u00ebve t\u00eb lidhur me arg\u00ebtimin mund t\u00eb interpretohet si nj\u00eb tregues i p\u00ebrmir\u00ebsimit gradual t\u00eb standardit t\u00eb jetes\u00ebs.<\/p>\n

Megjithat\u00eb, mund t\u00eb hipotizohet se rritja lidhet edhe me lul\u00ebzimin e biznesit t\u00eb basteve sportive dhe loj\u00ebrave t\u00eb fatit. Kur flitet p\u00ebr kumarin, \u00ebsht\u00eb e v\u00ebshtir\u00eb t\u00eb ndahet ndikimi i shpenzimeve t\u00eb \u201cqejfit\u201d nga ato t\u00eb lidhura me \u201cvesin\u201d e loj\u00ebs, q\u00eb n\u00eb vetvete nuk lidhen domosdoshm\u00ebrisht me rritjen e mir\u00ebqenies.<\/p>\n

Konsumi sjell mbi 90% t\u00eb PBB-s\u00eb<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ekonomia shqiptare mbetet nj\u00eb ekonomi e mb\u00ebshtetur n\u00eb pjes\u00ebn d\u00ebrrmuese te konsumi. T\u00eb dh\u00ebnat e PBB-s\u00eb, sipas shpenzimeve, tregojn\u00eb se n\u00eb mesataren afatgjat\u00eb, konsumi final vazhdon t\u00eb p\u00ebrb\u00ebj\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb se 90% t\u00eb prodhimit t\u00eb vendit. P\u00ebr periudh\u00ebn 2009-2018, kontributi i konsumit n\u00eb ekonomi ka qen\u00eb mesatarisht n\u00eb nivelin 90.7%, me r\u00ebnie t\u00eb leht\u00eb krahasuar me nivelin 92.5% t\u00eb periudh\u00ebs 1998-2008.<\/p>\n

Komponenti i dyt\u00eb m\u00eb i r\u00ebnd\u00ebsish\u00ebm i k\u00ebrkes\u00ebs agregate, investimet, n\u00eb dekad\u00ebn e fundit ka p\u00ebsuar r\u00ebnie t\u00eb ndjeshme t\u00eb pesh\u00ebs specifike, n\u00eb 26.4%, nga rreth 33.6% n\u00eb dekad\u00ebn e m\u00ebparshme. R\u00ebnia mund t\u00eb shpjegohet m\u00eb s\u00eb shumti me kontributin m\u00eb t\u00eb ul\u00ebt t\u00eb investimeve publike n\u00eb ekonomi. Deri n\u00eb vitin 2009, investimet prek\u00ebn nivele shum\u00eb t\u00eb larta, t\u00eb financuara p\u00ebrmes rritjes s\u00eb borxhit publik, n\u00eb funksion t\u00eb nd\u00ebrtimit t\u00eb veprave t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme t\u00eb infrastruktur\u00ebs, kryesisht Rrug\u00ebs s\u00eb Kombit.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb dekad\u00ebn n\u00eb vijim, formimi bruto i kapitalit fiks ka qen\u00eb ndjesh\u00ebm m\u00eb i ul\u00ebt, pavar\u00ebsisht rritjes s\u00eb Investimeve t\u00eb Huaja Direkte, p\u00ebrfshi k\u00ebtu vepra t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme t\u00eb investimeve n\u00eb energjetik\u00eb, si gazsjell\u00ebsi TAP dhe HEC-et n\u00eb kaskad\u00ebn e lumit Devoll.<\/p>\n

Komponenti tjet\u00ebr me ndikim p\u00ebrcaktues n\u00eb rritjen ekonomike, eksportet neto, n\u00eb vitet e fundit kan\u00eb sh\u00ebnuar p\u00ebrmir\u00ebsim t\u00eb ndjesh\u00ebm. Megjith\u00ebse historikisht me kontribut negativ, p\u00ebr vitin 2018 ky kontribut negativ ra n\u00eb -13.67% n\u00eb vitin 2018, niveli m\u00eb i ul\u00ebt n\u00eb epok\u00ebn postkomuniste. P\u00ebr periudh\u00ebn 2009-2018, kontributi mesatar i eksporteve neto ka qen\u00eb negativ mesatarisht p\u00ebr -18.6%, nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb q\u00eb p\u00ebr periudh\u00eb 1998-2008, kontributi i k\u00ebtij komponenti kishte qen\u00eb negativ mesatarisht me -24.2%.<\/p>\n

Kjo n\u00ebnkupton p\u00ebrmir\u00ebsim gradual t\u00eb pozicionit t\u00eb jasht\u00ebm t\u00eb ekonomis\u00eb, i nxitur nga rritja e eksportit t\u00eb mallrave dhe sh\u00ebrbimeve. P\u00ebrmir\u00ebsimi ka qen\u00eb nj\u00eb faktor i r\u00ebnd\u00ebsish\u00ebm n\u00eb performanc\u00ebn e ekonomis\u00eb, sidomos pas vitit 2012.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Mbulimi i importeve me eksporte \u00ebsht\u00eb rritur n\u00eb dekad\u00ebn e fundit<\/strong><\/p>\n

Bilanci i jasht\u00ebm i ekonomis\u00eb ka shenja p\u00ebrmir\u00ebsimi n\u00eb dekad\u00ebn e fundit dhe ngushtimi i kontributit negativ t\u00eb eksporteve neto n\u00eb PBB-n\u00eb e vendit e d\u00ebshmon nj\u00eb fakt t\u00eb till\u00eb. P\u00ebrmir\u00ebsimi lidhet, kryesisht, me turizmin dhe sh\u00ebrbimet, por, megjithat\u00eb, edhe n\u00eb tregtin\u00eb e mallrave ka disa indikator\u00eb q\u00eb tregojn\u00eb hapa t\u00eb vegj\u00ebl p\u00ebrpara.<\/p>\n

Nj\u00eb nga treguesit m\u00eb t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsish\u00ebm \u00ebsht\u00eb mbulimi i importeve nga eksportet. N\u00eb dekad\u00ebn e fundit, ky tregues ka sh\u00ebnuar p\u00ebrmir\u00ebsim t\u00eb ndjesh\u00ebm. P\u00ebr periudh\u00ebn 2010-2020, treguesi ka arritur mesatarisht n\u00eb nivelin 43.1%, nga 25.5% q\u00eb kishte qen\u00eb p\u00ebr dekad\u00ebn 2000-2010. Niveli m\u00eb i lart\u00eb i mbulimit t\u00eb eksporteve nga importet u arrit n\u00eb vitin 2018, me 48.4%, si rezultat i rritjes s\u00eb eksporteve. Megjith\u00ebse n\u00eb nj\u00eb bilanc t\u00eb p\u00ebrgjithsh\u00ebm, aft\u00ebsia e ekonomis\u00eb shqiptare p\u00ebr t\u00eb mbuluar importet \u00ebsht\u00eb p\u00ebrmir\u00ebsuar, n\u00eb k\u00ebndv\u00ebshtrimin e ekspert\u00ebve, eksportet shqiptare ngelen t\u00eb brishta dhe me nj\u00eb shkall\u00eb t\u00eb dob\u00ebt diversifikimi. Ato dominohen kryesisht nga sektori i fasoneris\u00eb dhe nga eksportet e l\u00ebnd\u00ebve t\u00eb para.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb terma t\u00eb mir\u00ebfillt\u00eb teknik\u00eb, fasoneria klasifikohet te sh\u00ebrbimet, sepse ajo q\u00eb realisht eksporton vendi \u00ebsht\u00eb vet\u00ebm puna e p\u00ebrgatitjes s\u00eb produktit final me kosto m\u00eb t\u00eb ul\u00ebt. Baza e ngusht\u00eb\u00a0 e eksporteve n\u00eb p\u00ebrgjith\u00ebsi kusht\u00ebzon nj\u00eb sasi relativisht t\u00eb ul\u00ebt t\u00eb vler\u00ebs s\u00eb shtuar dhe t\u00eb p\u00ebrfitimit ekonomik.<\/p>\n

Kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb arsyeja pse shumica e ekspert\u00ebve nuk shfaqin entuziaz\u00ebm lidhur me rritjen sasiore t\u00eb eksporteve n\u00eb vitet e fundit. Po t\u00eb shohim struktur\u00ebn e eksporteve shqiptare, ato vazhdojn\u00eb t\u00eb dominohen nga grupet \u201ctekstile dhe k\u00ebpuc\u00eb\u201d, \u201cminerale, l\u00ebnd\u00eb djeg\u00ebse, energji\u201d dhe \u201cmateriale nd\u00ebrtimi e metale\u201d, me rreth 68% t\u00eb vler\u00ebs totale. \u201cTekstile dhe k\u00ebpuc\u00eb\u201d mbetet me avantazh t\u00eb thell\u00eb grupi me pesh\u00ebn kryesore, me gati 38% t\u00eb eksporteve.<\/p>\n

Megjithat\u00eb, pesha e k\u00ebtij grupi ka ardhur n\u00eb r\u00ebnie graduale n\u00eb vitet e fundit, po t\u00eb kemi parasysh se n\u00eb vitin 2005 sillte rreth 58% t\u00eb eksporteve totale shqiptare. Pesha e fason\u00ebve \u00ebsht\u00eb balancuar sidomos nga eksportet e l\u00ebnd\u00ebve minerale (si dhe energjis\u00eb elektrike, n\u00eb vite t\u00eb ve\u00e7anta), q\u00eb madje n\u00eb vitet 2012-2013 u b\u00ebn\u00eb grupi me pesh\u00ebn kryesore n\u00eb eksportet shqiptare.<\/p>\n

Sidoqoft\u00eb, pesha e tyre ra duksh\u00ebm n\u00eb vitet n\u00eb vijim. Madje, p\u00ebr vitin 2020, pesha e grupit \u201cminerale, l\u00ebnd\u00eb djeg\u00ebse, energji\u201d zbriti n\u00eb 14.6%, niveli m\u00eb i ul\u00ebt q\u00eb prej vitit 2006. Kjo d\u00ebshmon se mungesa e nj\u00eb industrie p\u00ebrpunuese konkurruese n\u00eb vend ngelet penges\u00eb p\u00ebr nj\u00eb shfryt\u00ebzim eficient t\u00eb burimeve natyrore n\u00eb funksion t\u00eb rritjes s\u00eb q\u00ebndrueshme dhe afatgjat\u00eb t\u00eb eksporteve.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

VINI RE: <\/span>Ky artikull \u00ebsht\u00eb pron\u00eb intelektuale e Monitor.al<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false,"gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"rendered","format":"html"}]},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

P\u00ebrshkall\u00ebzimi i kriz\u00ebs e zbehu gradualisht diskutimin rreth modelit ekonomik, por, a ka ndryshuar sadopak struktura e ekonomis\u00eb shqiptare n\u00eb afatin e gjat\u00eb? Debati me ekspert\u00ebt. Af\u00ebrsisht nj\u00eb dekad\u00eb m\u00eb par\u00eb, Banka e Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb u shpreh publikisht lidhur me nevoj\u00ebn p\u00ebr t\u00eb nd\u00ebrtuar nj\u00eb model t\u00eb ri ekonomik p\u00ebr Shqip\u00ebrin\u00eb. Mesazhi ishte q\u00eb ekonomia shqiptare […]<\/p>\n","protected":false,"gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"rendered","format":"html"}]},"author":30,"featured_media":429738,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[65],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-429732","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-lajme"],"gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"link","format":"url"}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/429732","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/30"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=429732"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/429732\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/429738"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=429732"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=429732"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=429732"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}