![\"\"](\"https:\/\/hashtag.al\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/rama.jpg\")
<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
Fondi Monetar Nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar (FMN), n\u00eb nj\u00eb raport t\u00eb fundit, ka hartuar disa skenar\u00eb se \u00e7far\u00eb ndodh me ekonomin\u00eb dhe treguesit makroekonomik\u00eb, n\u00ebse situata me pandemin\u00eb p\u00ebrkeq\u00ebsohet, duke dh\u00ebn\u00eb dhe disa politika rekomanduese.<\/span><\/p>\n Rreziku kryesor, sipas FMN-s\u00eb, \u00ebsht\u00eb q\u00eb n\u00ebse ekonomia p\u00ebrkeq\u00ebsohet nga pandemia e zgjatur, deficiti dhe borxhi do t\u00eb vazhdonin t\u00eb rriteshin dhe si rrjedhoj\u00eb, qeveria nuk do t\u00eb kishte para n\u00eb dispozicion q\u00eb t\u00eb zvog\u00eblonte efektin n\u00eb ekonomi t\u00eb k\u00ebsaj goditjeje.<\/span><\/p>\n FMN rekomandon q\u00eb t\u00eb hiqet dor\u00eb nga shpenzimet jo prioritare, n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb ket\u00eb fonde t\u00eb lira p\u00ebr t\u00eb p\u00ebrballuar emergjenc\u00ebn.<\/span><\/p>\n Ky \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb paralajm\u00ebrim i fort\u00eb p\u00ebr qeverin\u00eb, e cila deri tani nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb kursyer n\u00eb shpenzimet n\u00eb prag t\u00eb zgjedhjeve. Vet\u00ebm pak jav\u00eb m\u00eb par\u00eb u hap\u00ebn disa tender\u00eb p\u00ebr nd\u00ebrtime rrug\u00ebsh, q\u00eb p\u00ebrve\u00e7se u tenderuan pas 15 tetorit n\u00eb kund\u00ebrshtim me ligjin, nuk jan\u00eb shpenzime t\u00eb domosdoshme p\u00ebr momentin (sh\u00ebnim i Monitor).<\/span><\/p>\n FMN ka hartuar dhe skenar\u00ebt e rritjes ekonomike, ku n\u00eb at\u00eb negativ, n\u00ebse ekonomia rim\u00ebk\u00ebmbet me ngadal\u00eb, borxhi publik mund t\u00eb arrij\u00eb n\u00eb 88.1% t\u00eb PBB-s\u00eb deri n\u00eb vitin 2020.<\/span><\/p>\n Skenar\u00ebt e rrezikut<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n Sipas raportit t\u00eb FMN-s\u00eb, ka nj\u00eb rrezik t\u00eb lart\u00eb q\u00eb s\u00ebmundja t\u00eb rezultoj\u00eb m\u00eb e v\u00ebshtir\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u2019u zhdukur, duke b\u00ebr\u00eb t\u00eb nevojshme q\u00eb t\u00eb merren m\u00eb shum\u00eb masa frenuese, nd\u00ebrsa do t\u00eb ket\u00eb nj\u00eb mjedis m\u00eb t\u00eb keq t\u00eb jasht\u00ebm. Kjo mund t\u00eb ul\u00eb m\u00eb tej ark\u00ebtimet, remitancat dhe eksportet e turizmit dhe t\u00eb \u00e7oj\u00eb n\u00eb shtr\u00ebngim t\u00eb kushteve globale financiare, duke ndikuar aktivitetin ekonomik t\u00eb Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb, performanc\u00ebn fiskale dhe borxhin si dhe stabilitetin financiar.<\/span><\/p>\n FMN rekomandon qeverin\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrgatitet n\u00eb p\u00ebrgjigje ndaj k\u00ebtij rreziku. \u201cRregulloni n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb fleksibile masat zbut\u00ebse dhe mb\u00ebshtetjen buxhetore. Sh\u00ebnjestroni politika m\u00eb t\u00eb mira p\u00ebr t\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetur kujdesin sh\u00ebndet\u00ebsor, personat q\u00eb jan\u00eb t\u00eb preksh\u00ebm dhe ekonomin\u00eb. K\u00ebrkoni financim t\u00eb jasht\u00ebm. Monitoroni dhe menaxhoni nga af\u00ebr dob\u00ebsit\u00eb e sektorit financiar\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n Megjithat\u00eb, FMN thot\u00eb se, n\u00eb rast t\u00eb nj\u00eb vaksine efektive, situata mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrmir\u00ebsohet me shpejt\u00ebsi, duke nxitur k\u00ebrkes\u00ebn e brendshme dhe t\u00eb jashtme. N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb rast, qeveria do t\u00eb duhet t\u00eb ndjek\u00eb nj\u00eb politik\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb konsoliduar fiskale dhe t\u00eb ul\u00eb me shpejt\u00ebsi borxhin.<\/span><\/p>\n FMN vler\u00ebson se ka nj\u00eb rrezik t\u00eb lart\u00eb q\u00eb qeveris\u00eb t\u2019i mbarojn\u00eb amortizator\u00ebt fiskale. Kjo do t\u00eb b\u00ebnte q\u00eb t\u00eb shtoheshin v\u00ebshtir\u00ebsit\u00eb e financimit dhe q\u00eb vendi t\u00eb mos kishte burimet e nevojshme p\u00ebr t\u00eb zvog\u00ebluar goditjet.<\/span><\/p>\n Si reagim ndaj k\u00ebtij rreziku, FMN i rekomandon qeveris\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb frenohet dhe t\u00eb mos kryej\u00eb shpenzime jo prioritare n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb liroj\u00eb fondet p\u00ebr reagimin ndaj emergjencave si dhe t\u00eb siguroj\u00eb nj\u00eb p\u00ebrdorim t\u00eb p\u00ebrshtatsh\u00ebm t\u00eb fondeve dhe monitorim t\u00eb tyre. N\u00eb momentin q\u00eb pandemia do t\u00eb zvog\u00eblohet, FMN rekomandon t\u00eb rifilloj\u00eb konsolidimi fiskal, i bazuar tek t\u00eb ardhurat, dhe t\u00eb ndiqet nj\u00eb trajektore e qart\u00eb e uljes s\u00eb borxhit.<\/span><\/p>\n FMN vler\u00ebson q\u00eb ka nj\u00eb rrezik t\u00eb lart\u00eb q\u00eb projektet e partneritetit publik privat (PPP) t\u00eb hartuara keq, t\u00eb rrisin detyrimet. Rreziku \u00ebsht\u00eb mesatar q\u00eb k\u00ebto kontrata t\u00eb d\u00ebmtojn\u00eb eficienc\u00ebn e investimeve publike dhe t\u00eb krijojn\u00eb detyrime t\u00eb m\u00ebdha, q\u00eb mund t\u00eb cenonin q\u00ebndrueshm\u00ebrin\u00eb fiskale dhe t\u00eb borxhit.<\/span><\/p>\n Ka nj\u00eb rrezik t\u00eb mes\u00ebm q\u00eb t\u00eb rritet brisht\u00ebsia e sektorit financiar dhe kjo mund t\u00eb \u00e7oj\u00eb n\u00eb rritjen e moderuar t\u00eb kredive me probleme.<\/span><\/p>\n Nj\u00eb tjet\u00ebr rrezik i mes\u00ebm \u00ebsht\u00eb q\u00eb kriza t\u00eb \u00e7oj\u00eb n\u00eb pak\u00ebnaq\u00ebsi sociale dhe destabilitet politik dhe n\u00ebse kjo do t\u00eb ndodhte rreziku i pasojave do t\u00eb ishte i lart\u00eb dhe do t\u00eb rriteshin pabarazit\u00eb.<\/span><\/p>\n Nj\u00eb tjet\u00ebr rrezik i mes\u00ebm lidhet me aft\u00ebsin\u00eb paguese t\u00eb borxhit dhe ekspozimin e sistemit bankar.<\/span><\/p>\n Skenar\u00ebt e rim\u00ebk\u00ebmbjes, n\u00eb at\u00eb t\u00eb pafavorshem borxhi shkon 88% e PBB-s\u00eb<\/span><\/p>\n Duke pasur parasysh pasigurin\u00eb e madhe q\u00eb lidhet me pandemin\u00eb dhe rreziqet n\u00eb rritje, FMN ka hartuar nj\u00eb skenar baz\u00eb dhe nj\u00eb t\u00eb pafavorsh\u00ebm.<\/span><\/p>\n Skenari baz\u00eb supozon q\u00eb ekonomia t\u00eb rim\u00ebk\u00ebmbet ngadal\u00eb nga gjysma e dyt\u00eb e vitit 2020 dhe t\u00eb forcohet gradualisht gjat\u00eb viteve 2021-22. Skenari i pafavorsh\u00ebm supozon se n\u00eb vitet 2021-22 progresi n\u00eb luft\u00ebn kund\u00ebr virusit mund t\u00eb rezultoj\u00eb t\u00eb jet\u00eb m\u00eb i ngadalt\u00eb sesa supozohet n\u00eb vler\u00ebsimin fillestar. Kushtet financiare globale gjithashtu supozohet t\u00eb shtr\u00ebngohen, duke kufizuar aksesin e vendeve evropiane n\u00eb zhvillim n\u00eb tregjet e kapitalit.<\/span><\/p>\n N\u00eb skenarin e pafavorsh\u00ebm, FMN parashikon q\u00eb borxhi publik i Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb pritet t\u00eb rritet n\u00eb 2021 dhe 2022. Kjo do t\u00eb b\u00ebnte q\u00eb borxhi publik t\u00eb arrinte n\u00eb 88% t\u00eb PBB-s\u00eb n\u00eb vitin 2022, nga 82-83% q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb pritshm\u00ebria p\u00ebr 2020-n.<\/span><\/p>\n