{"id":393799,"date":"2020-08-14T08:07:04","date_gmt":"2020-08-14T06:07:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hashtag.al\/?p=393799"},"modified":"2020-08-14T08:30:28","modified_gmt":"2020-08-14T06:30:28","slug":"a-mundet-qe-covid-19-te-kete-stine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/2020\/08\/14\/a-mundet-qe-covid-19-te-kete-stine\/","title":{"rendered":"A mundet q\u00eb COVID-19 t\u00eb ket\u00eb stin\u00eb?","gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"rendered","format":"text"}]},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/a>

Kur koronavirusi i ri (SARS-CoV-2) infekton nj\u00eb qeliz\u00eb njer\u00ebzore, ai merr peng makinerin\u00eb qelizore p\u00ebr t\u00eb prodhuar miliona kopje t\u00eb reja t\u00eb vetvetes. (Fotografi e NIAID) <\/em><\/span><\/p><\/div>\n

N\u00eb vitin 400 p.e.s, mjeku i njohur grek Hipokrati ofroi raportin m\u00eb t\u00eb hersh\u00ebm t\u00eb njohur p\u00ebr nj\u00eb s\u00ebmundje sezonale t\u00eb frym\u00ebmarrjes. <\/span><\/p>\n

“Kolla e Perintusit”<\/em> ishte nj\u00eb s\u00ebmundje dimri q\u00eb goditi nj\u00eb qytet port n\u00eb Greqi. Simptomat p\u00ebrfshinin ethe, t\u00eb dridhura, v\u00ebshtir\u00ebsi n\u00eb frym\u00ebmarrje, pneumoni dhe ndonj\u00ebher\u00eb vdekje.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mjetet moderne shkencore na kan\u00eb lejuar t\u00eb v\u00ebzhgojm\u00eb dhe shpjegojm\u00eb s\u00ebmundjen n\u00eb m\u00ebnyra q\u00eb mund ta kishin hipnotizuar Hipokratin. Por shpjegimi pse disa shp\u00ebrthime s\u00ebmundjesh kan\u00eb cikle sezonale, dhe parashikimi i koh\u00ebs s\u00eb atyre cikleve, mbetet nj\u00eb problem sfidues. N\u00eb vitin 2020, zgjidhja e k\u00ebtij problemi u b\u00eb edhe m\u00eb e ngutshme, pasi koronavirusi i ri (SARS-CoV-2) dhe s\u00ebmundja q\u00eb ajo shkakton (COVID-19) u p\u00ebrhap me shpejt\u00ebsi n\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00eb bot\u00ebn.<\/span>
\nNASA i \u00ebsht\u00eb bashkuar agjencive t\u00eb tjera amerikane dhe nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare n\u00eb k\u00ebrkimin e p\u00ebrgjigjeve. Shkenc\u00ebtar\u00ebt po hetojn\u00eb marr\u00ebdh\u00ebniet e mundshme midis p\u00ebrhapjes s\u00eb koronavirusit t\u00eb ri dhe nd\u00ebrrimeve sezonale n\u00eb lag\u00ebshti, temperatur\u00eb, reshje shiu dhe variabla t\u00eb tjer\u00eb mjedisor\u00eb. Ata shpresojn\u00eb se puna e tyre do t\u00eb sqaroj\u00eb rolin q\u00eb moti dhe klima mund t\u00eb luajn\u00eb n\u00eb ndikimin n\u00eb p\u00ebrhapjen e virusit.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>

Ideja q\u00eb infeksionet virale ndjekin ritmet sezonale dhe modelet gjeografike nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb e re. Kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb hart\u00eb e vitit 1856 nga nj\u00eb hartograf skocez q\u00eb tregon viruse dhe s\u00ebmundje t\u00eb spikatura (t\u00eb tilla si, lija, s\u00ebmundja e gush\u00ebs dhe ethet e verdha) n\u00eb lidhje me temperatur\u00ebn dhe gjer\u00ebsin\u00eb. (Harta e Alexander Keith-Johnsto, nga Koleksioni i Hartave t\u00eb David Rumsey.) <\/em><\/span><\/p><\/div>\n

K\u00ebrkimet kan\u00eb treguar q\u00eb disa viruse t\u00eb frym\u00ebmarrjes kan\u00eb ritme t\u00eb qarta sezonale. P\u00ebr shembull, rastet e gripit dhe disa lloje t\u00eb koronaviruseve dihet se rriten gjat\u00eb dimrit. P\u00ebrhapjet e enterovirus\u00ebve zakonisht ndodhin gjat\u00eb ver\u00ebs. Dhe disa adenoviruse dhe rinoviruse nuk kan\u00eb cik\u00ebl t\u00eb duksh\u00ebm sezonal.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pyetja me t\u00eb cil\u00ebn p\u00ebrballen ekspert\u00ebt dhe politik\u00ebb\u00ebr\u00ebsit e s\u00ebmundjes infektive \u00ebsht\u00eb: si do t\u00eb sillet SARS-CoV-2?<\/span>
\nViruset m\u00eb t\u00eb af\u00ebrta – kat\u00ebr lloje t\u00eb tjera t\u00eb betacoronaviruseve sferike e me pik\u00ebza – ofrojn\u00eb disa t\u00eb dh\u00ebna. Sindromi i frym\u00ebmarrjes n\u00eb Lindjen e Mesme (MERS) dhe Sindroma e r\u00ebnd\u00eb respiratore akute (SARS) nuk jan\u00eb p\u00ebrhapur kurr\u00eb gjer\u00ebsisht ose aq shpejt sa t\u00eb tregojn\u00eb sezonalitetin. Por dy betakoronaviruset endemik\u00eb (OC43 dhe HKU1) q\u00eb shkaktojn\u00eb ftohjen e zakonshme, p\u00ebrhapen m\u00eb shum\u00eb n\u00eb dim\u00ebr. (Viruset endemike jan\u00eb gjithmon\u00eb t\u00eb pranish\u00ebm; viruset epidemike p\u00ebrhapen me shpejt\u00ebsi n\u00eb nj\u00eb rajon; pandemit\u00eb p\u00ebrhapen globalisht.)<\/span><\/p>\n

N\u00ebse koronavirusi i COVID-19 favorizon dimrin si kush\u00ebrinjt\u00eb e tij, rastet e s\u00ebmundjes do t\u00eb zbehen gjat\u00eb ver\u00ebs, por pastaj do t\u00eb rriten p\u00ebrs\u00ebri n\u00eb vjesht\u00eb ose dim\u00ebr. Ekziston nj\u00eb precedent shqet\u00ebsues p\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb mund\u00ebsi. Gjat\u00eb pandemis\u00eb s\u00eb gripit t\u00eb vitit 1918, vala e par\u00eb e s\u00ebmundjes erdhi n\u00eb pranver\u00eb, por ishte relativisht modest. Ishte vala e dyt\u00eb q\u00eb arriti n\u00eb vjesht\u00ebn e vitit 1918 q\u00eb ishte katastrofike dhe shkaktoi dhjet\u00ebra miliona vdekje n\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00eb bot\u00ebn.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>

Shkenc\u00ebtar\u00ebt shpresojn\u00eb t\u00eb kuptojn\u00eb se sa<\/span> ndikojn\u00eb kushtet e mjedisit n\u00eb p\u00ebrhapjen e COVID-19 n\u00eb krahasim me faktor\u00eb t\u00eb tjer\u00eb si maskat apo karantinat. (Foto e Zydeaosika.)<\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

Shkenca p\u00ebr sezonalitetin e mundsh\u00ebm t\u00eb SARS-CoV-2 \u00ebsht\u00eb shum\u00eb e re p\u00ebr t\u00eb th\u00ebn\u00eb ndonj\u00eb gj\u00eb me siguri. “Ka nj\u00eb nxitim t\u00eb v\u00ebrtet\u00eb p\u00ebr t’u marr\u00eb studime tani”-<\/em> tha Benjamin Zaitchik, nj\u00eb studiues i Universitetit Johns Hopkins, q\u00eb punon n\u00eb nj\u00eb projekt t\u00eb Shkencave t\u00eb Aplikuara t\u00eb NASA-s p\u00ebr t\u00eb hetuar n\u00ebse faktor\u00ebt mjedisor\u00eb po ndikojn\u00eb n\u00eb p\u00ebrhapjen e koronavirusit t\u00eb ri. “T\u00eb gjith\u00eb p\u00ebrpiqen t\u00eb ndihmojn\u00eb, dhe shum\u00eb njer\u00ebz mendojn\u00eb se t\u00eb nxjerrin di\u00e7ka m\u00eb shpejt \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00ebnyra sesi t\u00eb ndihmojn\u00eb tani. Por publiku duhet t\u00eb kuptoj\u00eb se, edhe disa muaj n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb, ende nuk ka asgj\u00eb p\u00ebrfundimtare n\u00eb lidhje me sezonalitetin e virusit. “<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

Nj\u00eb nga m\u00ebnyrat si Zaitchik dhe studiues t\u00eb tjer\u00eb shpresojn\u00eb t<\/em>\u00eb marrin nj\u00eb qart\u00ebsi \u00ebsht\u00eb duke p\u00ebrdorur t\u00eb dh\u00ebnat e modeleve t\u00eb reanaliz\u00ebs dhe modeleve q\u00eb sintetizojn\u00eb t\u00eb dh\u00ebnat e ndryshme mjedisore n\u00eb nj\u00eb t\u00ebr\u00ebsi koherente. K\u00ebto sisteme krijojn\u00eb pamje t\u00eb q\u00ebndrueshme t\u00eb atmosfer\u00ebs s\u00eb Tok\u00ebs dhe sip\u00ebrfaqeve tok\u00ebsore dhe ujore n\u00eb zona t\u00eb m\u00ebdha dhe periudha t\u00eb gjata kohore. Kjo i b\u00ebn ata ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht t\u00eb dobish\u00ebm p\u00ebr hulumtime mbi problemet globale t\u00eb q\u00ebndrueshme si ndryshimi i klim\u00ebs ose sezonaliteti i nj\u00eb s\u00ebmundje infektive.<\/span><\/p>\n

N\u00eb k\u00ebrkimin e tyre p\u00ebr nj\u00eb sinjal t\u00eb mundsh\u00ebm sezonal t\u00eb COVID-19, Zaitchik dhe shkenc\u00ebtar\u00eb t\u00eb tjer\u00eb do t\u00eb mb\u00ebshteten n\u00eb modele dhe t\u00eb dh\u00ebna nga NASA, organizata t\u00eb tjera t\u00eb m\u00ebdha k\u00ebrkimore dhe nj\u00eb grup nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar t\u00eb satelit\u00ebve, avion\u00ebve dhe sistemeve t\u00eb v\u00ebzhgimit t\u00eb motit. NASA, NOAA, Agjensia e Hulumtimit t\u00eb Hap\u00ebsir\u00ebs n\u00eb Hap\u00ebsir\u00ebn Japoneze, Agjensia Europiane e Hap\u00ebsir\u00ebs dhe Qendra Europiane p\u00ebr Parashikimet e motit me rreze t\u00eb mesme (ECMWF) jan\u00eb ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht t\u00eb pozicionuara p\u00ebr t\u00eb prodhuar t\u00eb dh\u00ebna t\u00eb dobishme p\u00ebr studimet e COVID-19, sepse ato mbajn\u00eb sisteme v\u00ebzhguese dhe llogarit\u00ebse t\u00eb afta p\u00ebr ndjekjen e gj\u00ebrave n\u00eb nj\u00eb shkall\u00eb globale.<\/span><\/p>\n

Si mund t\u00eb ndikojn\u00eb stin\u00ebt n\u00eb nj\u00eb virus t\u00eb frym\u00ebmarrjes?<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Ekzistojn\u00eb disa ngjashm\u00ebri n\u00eb strukturat e viruseve sezonale q\u00eb sugjerojn\u00eb se disa karakteristika jan\u00eb t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme. P\u00ebr shembull, disa viruse sezonal\u00eb kan\u00eb zarfe lipide q\u00eb mbrojn\u00eb ARN-in virale dhe mund t\u00eb ndihmojn\u00eb q\u00eb viruset t\u00eb shmangin sistemin imunitar t\u00eb njeriut. Disa hulumtime tregojn\u00eb se k\u00ebto zarfe lipide b\u00ebhen t\u00eb \u00e7organizuara n\u00eb kushte t\u00eb ngrohta dhe t\u00eb lag\u00ebshta, duke e b\u00ebr\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb v\u00ebshtir\u00eb p\u00ebrhapjen e viruseve. Hulumtime t\u00eb tjera mbi anatomin\u00eb njer\u00ebzore tregojn\u00eb se strukturat n\u00eb hund\u00eb dhe fyt q\u00eb mbrojn\u00eb kund\u00ebr infeksioneve n\u00eb p\u00ebrgjith\u00ebsi funksionojn\u00eb m\u00eb mir\u00eb n\u00eb kushte m\u00eb t\u00eb ngrohta dhe m\u00eb t\u00eb lag\u00ebshta.<\/span><\/p>\n

\n
\"Global<\/div>\n
\n

Stin\u00ebt e Tok\u00ebs sjellin pulse t\u00eb gjelbra dhe t\u00eb bardha nd\u00ebrsa n\u00eb rajonet e bim\u00ebsis\u00eb, d\u00ebbora dhe akulli zgjerohen dhe kontraktohen gjat\u00eb gjith\u00eb vitit. Ndryshimet sezonale kan\u00eb treguar se ndikojn\u00eb n\u00eb p\u00ebrhapjen e disa s\u00ebmundjeve. (Imazhi i Observatorit t\u00eb Tok\u00ebs t\u00eb NASA-s nga Joshua Stevens, duke p\u00ebrdorur t\u00eb dh\u00ebna Blue Mermer.)<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Disa studime laboratorike shum\u00eb paraprake n\u00eb vitin 2020 treguan p\u00ebr nj\u00eb lidhje t\u00eb mundshme midis kushteve t\u00eb ftohta, t\u00eb thata dhe transmetimit t\u00eb rritur t\u00eb SARS-CoV-2, dhe disa grupe k\u00ebrkimore filluan t\u00eb k\u00ebrkojn\u00eb modele t\u00eb ngjashme n\u00eb t\u00eb dh\u00ebnat e sh\u00ebndetit dhe mjedisit n\u00eb bot\u00ebn reale. Nj\u00eb studim vuri n\u00eb dukje se qytetet me shp\u00ebrthime m\u00eb t\u00eb r\u00ebnda n\u00eb fund t\u00eb dimrit t\u00eb vitit 2020 ishin kryesisht t\u00eb vendosura rreth t\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00ebs gjer\u00ebsi gjeografike (30 deri 50 grad\u00eb n\u00eb veri) dhe kishin t\u00eb nj\u00ebjtat kushte t\u00eb p\u00ebrgjithshme t\u00eb temperatur\u00ebs dhe lag\u00ebshtis\u00eb.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>

\u00c7do vit n\u00eb Shtetet e Bashkuara, gripi ndjek nj\u00eb model t\u00eb parashikuesh\u00ebm dhe arrin kulmin e tij gjat\u00eb dimrit, kur kushtet jan\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb ftohta dhe m\u00eb t\u00eb thata. (Imazhi i Observatorit t\u00eb Tok\u00ebs t\u00eb NASA-s nga Joshua Stevens, duke p\u00ebrdorur t\u00eb dh\u00ebna nga Qendrat p\u00ebr Kontrollin dhe Parandalimin e S\u00ebmundjeve.)<\/span><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

Tani p\u00ebr tani, lidhjet si k\u00ebto duhet t\u00eb konsiderohen si hipoteza, jo si prova. Standardet p\u00ebr mbledhjen e t\u00eb dh\u00ebnave sh\u00ebndet\u00ebsore ndryshojn\u00eb n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb dramatike midis vendeve q\u00eb duke krahasuar rezultatet kaq her\u00ebt n\u00eb fillim t\u00eb nj\u00eb pandemie mund t\u00eb sugjerojn\u00eb marr\u00ebdh\u00ebnie q\u00eb nuk p\u00ebrputhen me koh\u00ebn dhe shqyrtimin. P\u00ebrtej k\u00ebsaj, marr\u00ebdh\u00ebniet midis variablave mjedisor\u00eb dhe transmetimit viral mund t\u00eb d\u00ebshmojn\u00eb t\u00eb jen\u00eb komplekse; ata mund t\u00eb luanin ndryshe n\u00eb klimat tropikale n\u00eb gjer\u00ebsi t\u00eb ul\u00ebt krahasuar me klimat e but\u00eb n\u00eb gjer\u00ebsi mesatare. N\u00eb rastin e gripit, ajri i that\u00eb i dimrit duket se ndihmon virusin t\u00eb p\u00ebrhapet n\u00eb gjer\u00ebsi mesatare dhe t\u00eb larta, por ka prova q\u00eb kushtet jasht\u00ebzakonisht t\u00eb lag\u00ebshta n\u00eb sezonin e lag\u00ebsht n\u00eb tropik\u00ebt gjithashtu i sjellin dobi virusit.<\/span><\/p>\n

Shumica prej nesh p\u00ebrqendrohet n\u00eb at\u00eb se si temperaturat ndryshojn\u00eb me stin\u00ebt, k\u00ebshtu q\u00eb mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb e leht\u00eb t\u00eb harrohet se sa shum\u00eb sezonet e ndryshojn\u00eb atmosfer\u00ebn. P\u00ebr shembull, sasia e avullit t\u00eb ujit n\u00eb aj\u00ebr bie n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb konsiderueshme n\u00eb dim\u00ebr sepse rrezet e diellit t\u00eb zvog\u00ebluara kufizojn\u00eb avullimin nga liqenet dhe detet. Kur ai aj\u00ebr i that\u00eb n\u00eb natyr\u00eb pompohet brenda dhe nxehet, ai mund t\u00eb b\u00ebhet edhe m\u00eb i that\u00eb; meqen\u00ebse ajri i ngroht\u00eb mund t\u00eb mbaj\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb lag\u00ebshti sesa ajri i ftoht\u00eb, lag\u00ebshtia relative – nj\u00eb p\u00ebrmas\u00eb q\u00eb tregon se sa lag\u00ebshti mund t\u00eb mbaj\u00eb ajri – bie ndjesh\u00ebm.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>

Hulumtimet paraprake treguan se qytetet me shumic\u00ebn e rasteve t\u00eb COVID-19 n\u00eb fillim t\u00eb vitit 2020, kishin kushte t\u00eb ngjashme t\u00eb temperatur\u00ebs dhe lag\u00ebshtis\u00eb. Nj\u00eb sasi e konsiderueshme e transmetimeve t\u00eb s\u00ebmundjes grumbullohen midis 5 \u00b0 C dhe 10 \u00b0 C (midis 40 \u00b0 F dhe 50 \u00b0 F) dhe n\u00eb lag\u00ebshti specifike prej 5 g \/ kg. (Grafiku i Observatorit t\u00eb Tok\u00ebs s\u00eb NASA-s nga Joshua Stevens, duke p\u00ebrdorur t\u00eb dh\u00ebnat e Sajadi et al.)<\/em><\/span><\/p><\/div>\n

“P\u00ebr SARS-CoV-2, \u00ebsht\u00eb shum\u00eb her\u00ebt ta thuash,”<\/em> tha Jeffrey Shaman, nj\u00eb epidemiolog i Universitetit Columbia i cili ka studiuar sezonalitetin e viruseve t\u00eb frym\u00ebmarrjes p\u00ebr dekada. “Por n\u00ebse un\u00eb do t\u00eb vija bast, un\u00eb v\u00eb bast se ka sezonalitet ndaj k\u00ebtij virusi dhe se, si me gripin dhe betacoronaviruset endemike, ai do t\u00eb gjurmoj\u00eb kushte mjedisore t\u00eb tilla si temperatura dhe ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht lag\u00ebshtia absolute.”<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

Gjetja e modeleve n\u00eb nj\u00eb det t\u00eb dh\u00ebnash<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Duke pasur parasysh aludimet se lag\u00ebshtia mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb e r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme p\u00ebr mbijetes\u00ebn dhe transmetimin e viruseve t\u00eb frym\u00ebmarrjes sezonale, Zaitchik dhe koleg\u00ebt po shqyrtojn\u00eb nj\u00eb gam\u00eb t\u00eb gjer\u00eb t\u00eb ndryshoreve mjedisore. Dhe kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb arsyeja pse ata mendojn\u00eb se modelet globale atmosferike dhe t\u00eb dh\u00ebnat e reanaliz\u00ebs do t\u00eb jen\u00eb t\u00eb dobishme n\u00eb avancimin e studimit t\u00eb sezonalitetit t\u00eb COVID-19.<\/span><\/p>\n

Stacionet e motit dhe mjetet e tjera t\u00eb monitorimit t\u00eb bazuara n\u00eb tok\u00eb jan\u00eb shp\u00ebrndar\u00eb n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb pabarabart\u00eb n\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00eb bot\u00ebn, dhe shumica e tyre jan\u00eb grumbulluar n\u00eb nj\u00eb pjes\u00eb t\u00eb vog\u00ebl t\u00eb vendeve t\u00eb pasura. Kjo do t\u00eb thot\u00eb se ata kan\u00eb tendenc\u00eb t\u00eb ofrojn\u00eb pik\u00ebpamje rajonale, m\u00eb shum\u00eb sesa nj\u00eb pamje t\u00eb q\u00ebndrueshme, globale t\u00eb avullit t\u00eb ujit, lag\u00ebshtis\u00eb, temperatur\u00ebs dhe ndryshoreve t\u00eb tjera q\u00eb ndryshojn\u00eb me stin\u00ebt.<\/span><\/p>\n

T\u00eb dh\u00ebnat e reanaliz\u00ebs atmosferike shkojn\u00eb rreth k\u00ebtij kufizimi duke p\u00ebrzier vazhdimisht simulimet e modelit t\u00eb gjendjes s\u00eb atmosfer\u00ebs me sasi masive t\u00eb t\u00eb dh\u00ebnave nga satelit\u00ebt, balonat e motit, avion\u00ebt, anijet dhe stacionet e motit. Sistemet e reanaliz\u00ebs rregullojn\u00eb vazhdimisht at\u00eb q\u00eb po simulojn\u00eb duke shtuar matje t\u00eb reja n\u00eb bot\u00ebn reale. \u00cbsht\u00eb si nj\u00eb parashikim q\u00eb vazhdon t\u00eb azhurnohet vet\u00eb, duke mbajtur edhe nj\u00eb pamje retrospektive t\u00eb asaj q\u00eb ka ndodhur.<\/span><\/p>\n

\n
https:\/\/hashtag.al\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/temperature_humidity_geos_2019.mp4<\/a><\/video><\/div>\n<\/div>\n

\u00a0Si temperatura dhe lag\u00ebshtia ndjekin ritme t\u00eb p\u00ebrditshme dhe ato sezonale, t\u00eb cilat v\u00ebzhgohen dhe maten nga instrumentet e\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0NASA-s dhe p\u00ebrfaq\u00ebsohen nga modele. (Animacion i Observatorit t\u00eb Tok\u00ebs t\u00eb NASA-s nga Joshua Stevens, duke p\u00ebrdorur t\u00eb dh\u00ebnat GEOS-5 nga Zyra Globale e Modelimit dhe Asimilimit n\u00eb NASA GSFC.)<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

T\u00eb dh\u00ebnat nga dy modelet kryesore t\u00eb reanaliz\u00ebs atmosferike jan\u00eb p\u00ebrdorur tashm\u00eb n\u00eb studimet mbi marr\u00ebdh\u00ebniet midis motit, klim\u00ebs dhe s\u00ebmundjes, dhe ato mund t\u00eb jen\u00eb kritike p\u00ebr p\u00ebrparimet n\u00eb sezonalitetin e SARS-CoV-2. Nj\u00eb e dh\u00ebn\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb ERA-5 nga ECMWF dhe tjetra \u00ebsht\u00eb Era Moderne Retrospektive-Analiz\u00eb p\u00ebr K\u00ebrkime dhe Aplikime (MERRA-2) nga NASA.<\/span><\/p>\n

“N\u00eb t\u00eb v\u00ebrtet\u00eb nuk ka nj\u00eb pamje fotografike kat\u00ebr-dimensionale m\u00eb t\u00eb sakt\u00eb dhe hap\u00ebsinore t\u00eb atmosfer\u00ebs sesa ajo q\u00eb merrni nga k\u00ebto produkte reanalize,”<\/em> tha Rob Gelaro, nj\u00eb meteorolog k\u00ebrkimor me Zyr\u00ebn Global t\u00eb Asimilimit t\u00eb Modelimit Global, i cili drejton MERRA-2. “\u00c7do gjasht\u00eb or\u00eb, MERRA-2 thith t\u00eb pakt\u00ebn 5 milion v\u00ebzhgime dhe gjeneron nj\u00eb pamje t\u00eb atmosfer\u00ebs globale p\u00ebr nj\u00eb moment t\u00eb caktuar.”<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

MERRA-2 \u00ebsht\u00eb zyrtarisht nj\u00eb produkt i ranaliz\u00ebs s\u00eb NASA-s, duke t\u00ebrhequr t\u00eb dh\u00ebna nga disa satelit\u00eb t\u00eb NASA-s dhe NOAA-s si Toka, Uji, dhe Misioni mat\u00ebs i reshjeve tropikale. Por me t\u00eb v\u00ebrtet\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb p\u00ebrzierje e t\u00eb dh\u00ebnave m\u00eb t\u00eb mira t\u00eb motit n\u00eb bot\u00eb nga dhjet\u00ebra satelit\u00eb dhe sisteme t\u00eb monitorimit t\u00eb motit. Meqen\u00ebse do t\u00eb ishte mjaft e shtrenjt\u00eb dhe logjikisht e pamundur q\u00eb nj\u00eb vend t\u00eb l\u00ebshoj\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00eb satelit\u00ebt dhe t\u00eb menaxhoj\u00eb t\u00eb gjitha sistemet e v\u00ebzhgimit t\u00eb nevojsh\u00ebm p\u00ebr t\u00eb arritur mbulimin global, vendet ndajn\u00eb kostot dhe sfidat e menaxhimit dhe m\u00eb pas t\u00eb ndajn\u00eb t\u00eb dh\u00ebnat. ERA-5 funksionon n\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00ebn m\u00ebnyr\u00eb.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pasuria, gjer\u00ebsia dhe thell\u00ebsia e t\u00eb dh\u00ebnave t\u00eb reanaliz\u00ebs \u00ebsht\u00eb ajo q\u00eb e b\u00ebn at\u00eb kaq t\u00eb dobishme. “Ne jemi duke p\u00ebrdorur k\u00ebto modele p\u00ebr t\u00eb par\u00eb nga af\u00ebr t\u00eb dh\u00ebnat e temperatur\u00ebs dhe lag\u00ebshtis\u00eb, por ne nuk po ndalemi me kaq,”<\/em> tha Zaitchik. “Ne gjithashtu do t\u00eb shohim disa parametra t\u00eb tjer\u00eb: reshjet, lag\u00ebshtin\u00eb e tok\u00ebs, avullimin, avullimet, presioni sip\u00ebrfaq\u00ebsor, fraksioni avullues dhe ekspozimi UV – q\u00eb mund t\u00eb na ndihmojn\u00eb t\u00eb zbulojm\u00eb nj\u00eb sinjal ose t\u00eb kuptojm\u00eb di\u00e7ka rreth transmetimit t\u00eb s\u00ebmundjes.”<\/em> Me ndihm\u00ebn e nj\u00eb mjeti t\u00eb ranaliz\u00ebs s\u00eb quajtur Sistemi i Asimilimit t\u00eb t\u00eb Dh\u00ebnave t\u00eb Amerik\u00ebs s\u00eb Veriut, Zaitchik dhe ekipi i tij gjithashtu duhet t\u00eb jen\u00eb n\u00eb gjendje t\u00eb lidhin epidemiologjin\u00eb dhe motin n\u00eb nivelin e qarkut p\u00ebr Amerik\u00ebn e Veriut dhe Europ\u00ebn sepse t\u00eb dh\u00ebnat e sh\u00ebndetit mjedisor dhe publik jan\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb holl\u00ebsishme dhe konsistente n\u00eb k\u00ebto vende t\u00eb zhvilluara.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pandemit\u00eb n\u00eb \u00e7do stin\u00eb<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Edhe me mund\u00ebsin\u00eb e p\u00ebrdorimit t\u00eb t\u00eb dh\u00ebnave dhe modeleve t\u00eb fuqishme, shkenc\u00ebtar\u00ebt thon\u00eb se do t\u00eb duhet koh\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb dalluar rolin e ndryshimit sezonal nga faktor\u00ebt e tjer\u00eb q\u00eb ndikojn\u00eb n\u00eb SARS-CoV-2, si\u00e7 jan\u00eb udh\u00ebtimet dhe kufizimet ekonomike ose veshja e maskave.<\/span><\/p>\n

“Ndryshueshm\u00ebria sezonale mund t\u00eb provoj\u00eb t\u00eb jet\u00eb vet\u00ebm nj\u00eb faktor i vog\u00ebl, duke ngadal\u00ebsuar, por duke mos ndaluar virusin gjat\u00eb ver\u00ebs, derisa t\u00eb rritet m\u00eb shum\u00eb imuniteti te popullata”<\/em>– tha epidemiologu i Universitetit t\u00eb Harvardit Marc Lipsitch. “Viruset e reja kan\u00eb nj\u00eb avantazh t\u00eb p\u00ebrkohsh\u00ebm, por t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsish\u00ebm – pak ose asnj\u00eb individ n\u00eb popullat\u00eb nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb imun ndaj tyre.”<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>

Kushtet e mjedisit kan\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb ndikim n\u00eb disa viruse sesa tek t\u00eb tjer\u00ebt. Nivelet e lag\u00ebshtir\u00ebs ndryshojn\u00eb ngjitjen e gripit, si dhe t\u00eb dy betakoronaviruseve q\u00eb shkaktojn\u00eb ftohjen e zakonshme. Mbetet p\u00ebr t’u par\u00eb se si do sillet SARS-CoV-2. (Grafiku i p\u00ebrshtatur nga Baker et al.)<\/span><\/p><\/div>\n

Nj\u00eb ekip i Universitetit t\u00eb Princeton n\u00ebnvizoi k\u00ebt\u00eb pik\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb studim t\u00eb botuar n\u00eb maj t\u00eb vitit 2020. Ata p\u00ebrdor\u00ebn t\u00eb dh\u00ebnat e lag\u00ebshtis\u00eb absolute t\u00eb viteve 2014-2020 nga ERA-5 dhe MERRA-2 p\u00ebr t\u00eb zhvilluar skenar\u00eb p\u00ebr m\u00ebnyr\u00ebn se si SARS-CoV-2 mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrhapet n\u00ebse efektet sezonale d\u00ebshmojn\u00eb t\u00eb jen\u00eb t\u00eb ngjashme si tek ata p\u00ebr gripin dhe betakoronaviruset e zakonshme t\u00eb ftohta. P\u00ebrfundimi i tyre ishte se gjat\u00eb faz\u00ebs pandemike t\u00eb nj\u00eb virusi n\u00eb zhvillim, sezonaliteti mund t\u00eb nxiste vet\u00ebm ndryshime “modeste” n\u00eb madh\u00ebsin\u00eb e nj\u00eb pandemie.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rachel Baker, studiuesja kryesore e Princeton-it n\u00eb at\u00eb studim, shpjegoi se pandemia SARS-CoV-2 p\u00ebrfundimisht mund t\u00eb vendoset n\u00eb nj\u00eb model shp\u00ebrthimesh sezonale. “Por me siguri do t\u00eb duhet ca koh\u00eb p\u00ebr ta par\u00eb realisht at\u00eb n\u00eb t\u00eb dh\u00ebna”- tha ajo. “N\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb ideale, ju do t\u00eb kishit t\u00eb dh\u00ebna t\u00eb mjaftueshme p\u00ebr t\u00eb qen\u00eb n\u00eb gjendje t\u00eb shikoni aktivitetin viral n\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00ebjtin qytet gjat\u00eb shum\u00eb sezoneve – ndoshta t\u00eb pakt\u00ebn tre vjet – para se t\u00eb mund t\u00eb themi me besim se ekziston nj\u00eb sinjal sezonal dhe t\u00eb jeni n\u00eb gjendje t\u00eb p\u00ebrshkruajm\u00eb at\u00eb. “<\/span><\/p>\n

K\u00ebshtu q\u00eb nd\u00ebrsa shkenc\u00ebtar\u00eb si Baker, Shaman dhe Zaitchik po nguten t\u00eb gjejn\u00eb t\u00eb dh\u00ebna, p\u00ebrgjigjet p\u00ebrfundimtare p\u00ebr sezonalitetin e SARS-CoV-2 nuk do t\u00eb vijn\u00eb p\u00ebr disa sezone.<\/span>
\n“Nd\u00ebrsa merrni k\u00ebt\u00eb informacion dhe k\u00ebrkim t\u00eb ri, mbani mend se ky virus \u00ebsht\u00eb i ri p\u00ebr shkenc\u00ebn dhe njer\u00ebzit sapo kan\u00eb filluar ta studiojn\u00eb at\u00eb”-<\/em> tha Zaitchik. \u201cB\u00ebrja e shkenc\u00ebs me cil\u00ebsi t\u00eb lart\u00eb, definitive k\u00ebrkon koh\u00eb, ndonj\u00ebher\u00eb edhe nj\u00eb koh\u00eb t\u00eb gjat\u00eb. Oreksi p\u00ebr p\u00ebrgjigje \u00ebsht\u00eb kuptuesh\u00ebm intensiv, por gjithashtu duhet t\u00eb p\u00ebrpiqemi ta ekuilibrojm\u00eb at\u00eb uri me durim. “<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

VINI RE:<\/span> Ky artikull \u00ebsht\u00eb pron\u00eb intelektuale e NASA Earth Observatory<\/a> \/ P\u00ebrshtati n\u00eb shqip Hashtag.al<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false,"gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"rendered","format":"html"}]},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

N\u00eb vitin 400 p.e.s, mjeku i njohur grek Hipokrati ofroi raportin m\u00eb t\u00eb hersh\u00ebm t\u00eb njohur p\u00ebr nj\u00eb s\u00ebmundje sezonale t\u00eb frym\u00ebmarrjes. “Kolla e Perintusit” ishte nj\u00eb s\u00ebmundje dimri q\u00eb goditi nj\u00eb qytet port n\u00eb Greqi. Simptomat p\u00ebrfshinin ethe, t\u00eb dridhura, v\u00ebshtir\u00ebsi n\u00eb frym\u00ebmarrje, pneumoni dhe ndonj\u00ebher\u00eb vdekje. Mjetet moderne shkencore na kan\u00eb lejuar t\u00eb […]<\/p>\n","protected":false,"gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"rendered","format":"html"}]},"author":30,"featured_media":393800,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[22,6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-393799","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ballina","category-nderkombetare"],"gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"link","format":"url"}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/393799","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/30"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=393799"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/393799\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/393800"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=393799"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=393799"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=393799"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}