![\"\"](\"https:\/\/hashtag.al\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/UScovidreport.jpg\")
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Nj\u00eb “s\u00ebmundje jasht\u00ebzakonisht ngjit\u00ebse dhe virulente e frym\u00ebmarrjes” p\u00ebr t\u00eb cil\u00ebn nuk ka sh\u00ebrim mund t\u00eb nxis\u00eb nj\u00eb pandemi globale. <\/span><\/p>\n Ky ishte vler\u00ebsimi i nj\u00eb raporti t\u00eb inteligjenc\u00ebs amerikane t\u00eb vitit 2008. Parashikimi ishte i sakt\u00eb – por askush nuk ishte p\u00ebrgatitur.<\/span><\/p>\n Raporti i vitit 2008 i K\u00ebshillit Komb\u00ebtar t\u00eb Inteligjenc\u00ebs s\u00eb SHBA (NIC) paralajm\u00ebroi q\u00eb kjo s\u00ebmundje e re mund t\u00eb ishte “jasht\u00ebzakonisht ngjit\u00ebse” dhe se nuk do t\u00eb kishte “asnj\u00eb trajtim t\u00eb p\u00ebrshtatsh\u00ebm” t\u00eb disponuesh\u00ebm n\u00eb koh\u00ebn e p\u00ebrhapjes s\u00eb tij, duke \u00e7uar n\u00eb nj\u00eb pandemi n\u00eb mbar\u00eb bot\u00ebn. <\/span><\/p>\n Sugjeroi q\u00eb llojet shum\u00eb patogjene t\u00eb gripit t\u00eb shpend\u00ebve si H5NI ishin “kandidat\u00eb t\u00eb mundsh\u00ebm”, por nj\u00eb “koronavirus ose lloje t\u00eb tjera t\u00eb gripit” mund t\u00eb kishin t\u00eb nj\u00ebjtin potencial.<\/span><\/p>\n Raporti tha q\u00eb se ky shp\u00ebrthim do t\u00eb fillonte n\u00eb nj\u00eb zon\u00eb me dend\u00ebsi t\u00eb lart\u00eb t\u00eb popullsis\u00eb dhe ku njer\u00ebzit dhe kafsh\u00ebt shpesh jetojn\u00eb n\u00eb lagje t\u00eb af\u00ebrta, duke e dh\u00ebn\u00eb Kin\u00ebn si nj\u00eb shembull specifik. Virusi Covid-19 thuhet se ka origjin\u00ebn n\u00eb nj\u00eb treg n\u00eb Wuhan, ku kafsh\u00ebt e gjalla ose jo, shiten dhe ku standardet e higjen\u00ebs jan\u00eb t\u00eb dob\u00ebta.<\/span><\/p>\n Kur virusi filloi t\u00eb p\u00ebrhapet, nj\u00eb “reagim i ngadalt\u00eb i sh\u00ebndetit publik” do t\u00eb pengonte t\u00eb kuptuarit e situat\u00ebs se po p\u00ebrhapej nj\u00eb patogjen shum\u00eb i rreziksh\u00ebm.\u00a0 “Jav\u00eb t\u00eb t\u00ebra mund t\u00eb kalojn\u00eb” para se rezultatet laboratorike t\u00eb konfirmonin ekzistenc\u00ebn e tij dhe deri at\u00ebher\u00eb grupimet do t\u00eb shfaqeshin n\u00eb popullat\u00eb. <\/span><\/p>\n Udh\u00ebtar\u00ebt asimptomatik\u00eb mund t\u00eb bartin s\u00ebmundjen n\u00eb kontinentet e tjera duke rezultuar n\u00eb “val\u00eb” t\u00eb rasteve t\u00eb reja nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtarisht. N\u00eb skenarin m\u00eb ekstrem “dhjet\u00ebra e qindra miliona” amerikan\u00eb mund t\u00eb s\u00ebmureshin.<\/span><\/p>\n Nj\u00eb pandemi gjithashtu u citua n\u00eb nj\u00eb raport t\u00eb ve\u00e7ant\u00eb NIC t\u00eb vitit 2004 si di\u00e7ka q\u00eb mund t\u00eb “prish\u00eb globalizimin”, duke theksuar se ekspert\u00ebt besojn\u00eb se nj\u00eb ngjarje e till\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb “vet\u00ebm \u00e7\u00ebshtje kohe”.<\/span><\/p>\n Nd\u00ebrsa k\u00ebto parashikime mund t\u00eb dukeshin shum\u00eb si teori konspirative, ato ishin thjesht sens i zakonsh\u00ebm p\u00ebr virolog\u00ebt dhe ekspert\u00ebt e tjer\u00eb q\u00eb kan\u00eb paralajm\u00ebruar p\u00ebr pashmangshm\u00ebrin\u00eb e nj\u00eb pandemie t\u00eb re (dhe munges\u00ebn e gatishm\u00ebris\u00eb s\u00eb bot\u00ebs) p\u00ebr vite me rradh\u00eb.<\/span><\/p>\n N\u00eb 2005, eksperti i s\u00ebmundjes infektive, Michael Osterholm, shkroi se “koha po mbaron” p\u00ebr t’u p\u00ebrgatitur p\u00ebr pandemin\u00eb tjet\u00ebr dhe se ishte koha p\u00ebr t\u00eb vepruar. N\u00eb librin e tij p\u00ebr vitin 2017 ‘Armiku m\u00eb vdekjeprur\u00ebs: Lufta jon\u00eb kund\u00ebr mikrobeve vras\u00ebse”, ai u p\u00ebrpoq t\u00eb ting\u00eblloj\u00eb alarmin ndaj k\u00ebrc\u00ebnimeve n\u00eb zhvillim dhe ai hartoi nj\u00eb strategji n\u00ebnt\u00eb pik\u00ebsh p\u00ebr t\u00eb mbrojtur popullatat.<\/span><\/p>\n N\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb ngjashme, eksperti i gripit Robert Webster paralajm\u00ebroi n\u00eb librin e tij p\u00ebr vitin 2018, \u2018Flu Hunter\u2019 p\u00ebr “p\u00ebr\u00e7arje t\u00eb m\u00ebdha sociale dhe kosto t\u00eb konsiderueshme ekonomike” q\u00eb mund t\u00eb rezultoj\u00eb nga nj\u00eb pandemi tjet\u00ebr n\u00eb mbar\u00eb bot\u00ebn.<\/span><\/p>\n Ekspert\u00ebt m\u00eb t\u00eb af\u00ebrt me korridoret e pushtetit kan\u00eb ngritur alarmin gjithashtu.<\/span><\/p>\n Dennis Carroll drejtoi nj\u00eb program t\u00eb USAID-it t\u00eb quajtur PREDICT, i cili udh\u00ebhoqi hulumtime mbi viruset te kafsh\u00ebt q\u00eb mund t\u00eb transmetohen te njer\u00ebzit. Ai mbrojti \u00e7\u00ebshtjen e investimit n\u00eb k\u00ebrkime n\u00eb jet\u00ebn e eg\u00ebr, dhe jo vet\u00ebm bag\u00ebtit\u00eb sht\u00ebpiake – dhe si\u00e7 e dim\u00eb tani, koronavirusi i ri besohet t\u00eb ket\u00eb kaluar nga lakuriq\u00ebt te njer\u00ebzit. PREDICT humbi fondet e saj n\u00eb vitin 2019. Tani, administrata Trump po p\u00ebrpiqet t\u00eb ringjall\u00eb programin.<\/span><\/p>\n Jo vet\u00ebm agjencit\u00eb qeveritare amerikane kan\u00eb paralajm\u00ebruar p\u00ebr nj\u00eb shp\u00ebrthim t\u00eb ri viral.<\/span><\/p>\n Parashikimet gjermane<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n Nj\u00eb analiz\u00eb e rrezikut t\u00eb qeveris\u00eb gjermane t\u00eb vitit 2012 gjithashtu theksoi k\u00ebrc\u00ebnimin. N\u00eb simulimin e tij pandemik, virusi i ri do t\u00eb p\u00ebrhapet me shpejt\u00ebsi duke mposhtur sistemet sh\u00ebndet\u00ebsore dhe nj\u00ebsit\u00eb e kujdesit intensiv. Si rezultat, ajo tha q\u00eb shum\u00eb pacient\u00eb do t\u00eb k\u00ebrkojn\u00eb ndihm\u00eb n\u00eb kujdesin intensiv n\u00eb spitale – sakt\u00ebsisht skenari q\u00eb ne po shohim t\u00eb luhet sot. Ashtu si raporti amerikan, ai gjithashtu parashikoi q\u00eb virusi do fillonte n\u00eb Azi – dhe madje edhe se ai do t\u00eb transferohej nga kafsh\u00ebt e egra te njer\u00ebzit.<\/span><\/p>\n Raporti parashikonte q\u00eb p\u00ebrhapja e virusit t\u00eb ngadal\u00ebsohej nga “masat antidemidike” duke p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb karantinimin, gjurmimin e kontakteve dhe izolimin e vetvetes – p\u00ebrve\u00e7 mbylljeve t\u00eb shkollave dhe ndalimeve p\u00ebr tubime t\u00eb m\u00ebdha. Shumica e popullsis\u00eb, tha ajo, do t\u00eb sillet “kryesisht n\u00eb solidaritet”, por sjellja antisociale nuk mund t\u00eb “p\u00ebrjashtohet”. Ai nuk dha vler\u00ebsime konkrete mbi ndikimin ekonomik, por tha q\u00eb do t\u00eb ishte “i jasht\u00ebzakonsh\u00ebm”.<\/span><\/p>\n Raporti i qeveris\u00eb gjermane gjithashtu sugjeroi q\u00eb virusi do t\u00eb p\u00ebrhapet n\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00eb vendin gjat\u00eb nj\u00eb periudhe tre-vje\u00e7are para se t\u00eb vihej n\u00eb dispozicion nj\u00eb vaksin\u00eb. Ai supozoi 7.5 milion\u00eb vdekje bazuar n\u00eb nj\u00eb shkall\u00eb vdekshm\u00ebrie jasht\u00ebzakonisht t\u00eb lart\u00eb prej 10 p\u00ebrqind. <\/span><\/p>\n Deri m\u00eb tani, ne ende nuk e dim\u00eb nivelin e p\u00ebrgjithsh\u00ebm t\u00eb vdekshm\u00ebris\u00eb p\u00ebr Covid-19. P\u00ebr nj\u00eb larmi arsyesh, ajo ka filluar nga mbi 7 p\u00ebrqind n\u00eb Itali n\u00eb 1.6 p\u00ebrqind n\u00eb Gjermani. Organizata Bot\u00ebrore e Sh\u00ebndetit parashikoi nj\u00eb norm\u00eb mesatare globale t\u00eb vdekjes prej 3.4 p\u00ebrqind.<\/span><\/p>\n Me gjith\u00eb k\u00ebto paralajm\u00ebrime t\u00eb nd\u00ebrgjegjshme dhe precize, pse at\u00ebher\u00eb, ishte bota kaq e pap\u00ebrgatitur? Kriza Covid-19 ka ngjallur n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb befasuese shum\u00eb teori t\u00eb reja konspirative; nga sugjerimi q\u00eb virusi \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb arm\u00eb biologjike e krijuar n\u00eb nj\u00eb laborator kinez, te teoria se ekziston nj\u00eb lidhje midis s\u00ebmundjes dhe teknologjis\u00eb 5G, ose q\u00eb ushtria amerikane e \u00e7oi n\u00eb \u00cbuhan n\u00eb Loj\u00ebrat Bot\u00ebrore Ushtarake 2019 – nuk ka pasur mungesa teorish se nga ka ardhur dhe si lindi.<\/span><\/p>\n Por asnj\u00eb nga ato teori nuk mund t\u00eb shpjegoj\u00eb pse e gjith\u00eb bota nuk ishte e p\u00ebrgatitur p\u00ebr t’u p\u00ebrballur me nj\u00eb skenar q\u00eb ekspert\u00ebt kan\u00eb paralajm\u00ebruar vazhdimisht p\u00ebr vite me rradh\u00eb.<\/span><\/p>\n “Nuk do na ndodh\u00eb neve”<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n Ndoshta shpjegimi \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb pak konspirativ dhe m\u00eb shum\u00eb…njer\u00ebzor. Ndoshta \u00ebsht\u00eb po aq e thjesht\u00eb sa fakti q\u00eb njer\u00ebzit nuk kan\u00eb d\u00ebshir\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrgatiten p\u00ebr “t\u00eb mundshmet” dhe krizat mjegulluese t\u00eb s\u00eb ardhmes, duke preferuar q\u00eb n\u00eb vend t\u00eb k\u00ebsaj t\u00eb merren me problemet vet\u00ebm kur arrijn\u00eb n\u00eb vij\u00ebn e par\u00eb dhe fillojn\u00eb t\u00eb trokasin n\u00eb der\u00eb.<\/span><\/p>\n Nj\u00eb nga p\u00ebrjashtimet e vetme p\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb rregull duket t\u00eb jet\u00eb gatishm\u00ebria ushtarake: Mund t\u00eb mos ket\u00eb para p\u00ebr t’u p\u00ebrgatitur p\u00ebr nj\u00eb pandemi, por gjithmon\u00eb ka shum\u00eb para p\u00ebr t’u p\u00ebrgatitur p\u00ebr luft\u00eb – madje edhe gjat\u00eb nj\u00eb pandemie. <\/span><\/p>\n Nj\u00eb analiz\u00eb e deklasifikuar n\u00eb Mbret\u00ebrin\u00eb e Bashkuar e publikuar muajin e kaluar zbuloi se Mbret\u00ebria e Bashkuar nuk kishte b\u00ebr\u00eb asnj\u00eb planifikim p\u00ebr nj\u00eb pandemi, pavar\u00ebsisht paralajm\u00ebrimeve t\u00eb p\u00ebrs\u00ebritura nga zyrtar\u00ebt politik\u00ebb\u00ebr\u00ebs mbi 15 vjet se nj\u00eb shp\u00ebrthim i gripit ishte “k\u00ebrc\u00ebnimi m\u00eb i madh” p\u00ebr sigurin\u00eb n\u00eb Mbret\u00ebrin\u00eb e Bashkuar.<\/span><\/p>\n Pavar\u00ebsisht paralajm\u00ebrimit t\u00eb bollsh\u00ebm, p\u00ebrgjigjja ndaj p\u00ebrhapjes s\u00eb virusit ishte e ngadalt\u00eb n\u00eb Per\u00ebndim. Nd\u00ebrsa Trump dhe kryeministri britanik Boris Johnson jan\u00eb kritikuar me t\u00eb drejt\u00eb nga ekspert\u00ebt p\u00ebr mos marrjen e shp\u00ebrthimit mjaft seriozisht n\u00eb fazat e hershme t\u00eb tij, Brukseli gjithashtu ra n\u00eb kriz\u00eb. <\/span><\/p>\n Mund t\u00eb ket\u00eb nj\u00eb lloj arrogance me reagimin e ngadalt\u00eb per\u00ebndimor. Edhe parashikimi i NIC fluturoi kryesisht n\u00ebn radar, por citimet nga raporti i K\u00ebshillit Komb\u00ebtar t\u00eb Inteligjenc\u00ebs Komb\u00ebtare (NIC) u botuan n\u00eb nj\u00eb lib\u00ebr t\u00eb vitit 2009 nga historiani dhe filozofi francez Alexandre Adler. <\/span><\/p>\n Si\u00e7 komentoi Adler, \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb leht\u00eb t\u00eb supozosh se k\u00ebto gj\u00ebra do t\u00eb “ndodhin me t\u00eb tjer\u00ebt” por kurr\u00eb ne – dhe vet\u00ebm kur njer\u00ebzit t\u00eb kuptojn\u00eb se ata jan\u00eb n\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00ebn anije fundosjeje, mund t\u00eb filloj\u00eb p\u00ebrparimi.<\/span><\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/hashtag.al\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/UScovidreport.jpg2_.jpg\")
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