{"id":258721,"date":"2018-12-16T10:07:45","date_gmt":"2018-12-16T09:07:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hashtag.al\/?p=258721"},"modified":"2018-12-16T10:08:31","modified_gmt":"2018-12-16T09:08:31","slug":"tranzicioni-demografik-si-po-e-rrezikon-te-ardhmen-e-vendit","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/2018\/12\/16\/tranzicioni-demografik-si-po-e-rrezikon-te-ardhmen-e-vendit\/","title":{"rendered":"Tranzicioni demografik, si po e rrezikon t\u00eb ardhmen e vendit","gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"rendered","format":"text"}]},"content":{"rendered":"

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Sociolog\u00ebt dhe demograf\u00ebt pohojn\u00eb se ka ardhur koha q\u00eb tranzicioni demografik (r\u00ebnia e madhe e lindjeve dhe emigracioni i lart\u00eb) t\u00eb trajtohet me p\u00ebrpar\u00ebsi, pasi n\u00eb faz\u00ebn n\u00eb t\u00eb cil\u00ebn ndodhen diktojn\u00eb t\u00eb gjitha zhvillimet politike dhe ekonomike n\u00eb vend. Si po ndikohet ekonomia dhe perspektiva e saj<\/span><\/p>\n

Potencialet e larta q\u00eb ka Shqip\u00ebria p\u00ebr emigrim, ku sistematikisht n\u00eb tre vitet e fundit, 50% e popullsis\u00eb ka pohuar se ka n\u00eb plan t\u00eb largohet t\u00eb pakt\u00ebn sipas tre anketimeve t\u00eb ndryshme (Gallup, G\u00ebdeshi-King dhe UNESCO) e ka futur shoq\u00ebrin\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb qark pesimizmi q\u00eb po jep ndikime negative zinxhir n\u00eb ekonomi.<\/span><\/p>\n

Largimet, kryesisht n\u00eb form\u00ebn e azilit politik n\u00eb Europ\u00eb, rreth 170 mij\u00eb persona n\u00eb 2015-2017, kan\u00eb ndikuar n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb drejtp\u00ebrdrejt\u00eb n\u00eb uljen e konsumit n\u00eb vend. Teksa pjesa tjet\u00ebr q\u00eb planifikon t\u00eb ik\u00eb dhe q\u00eb po p\u00ebrgatitet p\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb q\u00ebllim, duke m\u00ebsuar gjuh\u00ebn gjermane dhe duke marr\u00eb trajnimet e nevojshme p\u00ebr pun\u00ebsim jasht\u00eb vendit (mjek\u00ebt, infermier\u00ebt dhe t\u00eb rinjt\u00eb) po mbajn\u00eb t\u00eb ndrydhur konsumin e mallrave t\u00eb q\u00ebndruesh\u00ebm.<\/span><\/p>\n

Duke planifikuar t\u00eb emigrojn\u00eb, ata nuk blejn\u00eb sht\u00ebpi, nuk investojn\u00eb n\u00eb prona, duke u limituar vet\u00ebm n\u00eb financimin e p\u00ebrditshm\u00ebris\u00eb s\u00eb tyre. Ish-ministri i Financave, Arben Malaj, tha se potencialet e larta t\u00eb emigrimit krijojn\u00eb nj\u00eb situat\u00eb pesimizmi q\u00eb d\u00ebmton konsumin n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb drejtp\u00ebrdrejt\u00eb.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dhe tashm\u00eb kjo po ndodh, teksa ekonomia \u00ebsht\u00eb rritur me ritme m\u00eb t\u00eb larta se 4%, gati n\u00eb nivelin m\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb t\u00eb dekad\u00ebs, treguesi i besimit n\u00eb ekonomi po bie. Treguesi i Ndjesis\u00eb Ekonomike (TNE) ra me 4.0 pik\u00eb n\u00eb tremujorin e tret\u00eb t\u00eb vitit 2018. Banka e Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb sqaroi se ecuria e treguesit reflektoi si r\u00ebnien e besimit t\u00eb biznesit, ashtu edhe t\u00eb konsumator\u00ebve. Vrojtimet e Bank\u00ebs tregojn\u00eb se balanca e blerjeve t\u00eb m\u00ebdha ra me 5.4 pik\u00eb p\u00ebrqindje n\u00eb tremujorin e tret\u00eb. Sociolog\u00ebt shpjegojn\u00eb se emigracioni ndoshta \u00ebsht\u00eb treguesi m\u00eb i qart\u00eb q\u00eb shoq\u00ebria po kalon nj\u00eb periudh\u00eb depresioni.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u00ebshtir\u00ebsit\u00eb ekonomike dhe humbja e shpres\u00ebs i shtyjn\u00eb njer\u00ebzit ta k\u00ebrkojn\u00eb fatin e tyre jasht\u00eb vendit dhe kjo munges\u00eb sigurie do t\u00eb reflektohet edhe n\u00eb numrin e lindjeve. Nuk duhet harruar edhe fakti se emigracioni prek kryesisht t\u00eb rinjt\u00eb dhe kjo patjet\u00ebr q\u00eb do t\u00eb ket\u00eb ndikim demografik, thot\u00eb sociologu Ergys M\u00ebrtiri.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Eksperti i \u00e7\u00ebshtjeve sociale, Kosta Barjaba, tha se klasat politike dhe qeverisjet shqiptare u t\u00ebrhoq\u00ebn prej problemeve emergjente, t\u00eb ashtuquajtura kardinale si: ekonomia, reformat strukturore, proceset integruese, nd\u00ebrtimi i institucioneve demokratike, konsolidimi i sistemit dhe institucioneve politike etj. T\u00eb gjitha k\u00ebto ishin t\u00eb nevojshme. Por po kaq e nevojshme ishte edhe ndjekja e tranzicionit demografik, i cili p\u00ebrgjith\u00ebsisht shoq\u00ebron tranzicionet politike, ekonomike dhe ndryshimet e sistemeve politike, tha ai.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Bizneset kan\u00eb evidentuar se faktori demografik po shnd\u00ebrrohet n\u00eb nj\u00eb nga shqet\u00ebsimet kryesore t\u00eb aktivitetit t\u00eb tyre. Sektori i shitjeve me pakic\u00eb po vuan r\u00ebnien e konsumit dhe disa linja prodhimi (fasoni) kan\u00eb nisur t\u00eb ndiejn\u00eb v\u00ebshtir\u00ebsi n\u00eb gjetjen e forc\u00ebs s\u00eb pun\u00ebs.<\/span>
\n P\u00ebr her\u00eb t\u00eb par\u00eb, Fondi Monetar Nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar, n\u00eb misionin e fundit, renditi emigracionin si nj\u00eb problem shqet\u00ebsues, duke t\u00ebrhequr v\u00ebmendjen e qeveris\u00eb shqiptare q\u00eb t\u00eb krijoj\u00eb kushtet p\u00ebr nj\u00eb rritje gjith\u00ebp\u00ebrfshir\u00ebse, me q\u00ebllim frenimin e fenomenit.<\/span><\/p>\n

Profesor Barjaba thot\u00eb se, rritja e popullsis\u00eb mbi 65 vje\u00e7, pra e popullsis\u00eb s\u00eb moshuar, do t\u00eb k\u00ebrkoj\u00eb burime shtes\u00eb p\u00ebr fondin e pensioneve, sh\u00ebrbimet sociale e sh\u00ebndet\u00ebsore p\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb kategori. Rritja e popullsis\u00eb aktive, midis 15-64 vje\u00e7, ka implikime kontradiktore: furnizon tregun e pun\u00ebs me forc\u00eb pune t\u00eb re, t\u00eb arsimuar, dinamike e produktive, pra \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb \u201cdhurat\u00eb\u201d p\u00ebr tregun e pun\u00ebs; por kur tregu i pun\u00ebs nuk ofron vende pune t\u00eb reja t\u00eb mjaftueshme, \u201cdhurata\u201d demografike shnd\u00ebrrohet n\u00eb rrezik demografik.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pak\u00ebsimi i popullsis\u00eb n\u00ebn 15 vje\u00e7 do t\u00eb ket\u00eb pasoja afatgjata n\u00eb pak\u00ebsimin e \u201cfurnizimit\u201d t\u00eb tregut me fuqi pun\u00ebtore t\u00eb re, shtoi ai. Nd\u00ebrsa demografi Luan Shahollari v\u00ebren me shqet\u00ebsim fenomenin e emigracionit kryesisht n\u00eb moshat e reja, i cili jep m\u00eb tej efekte negative edhe n\u00eb r\u00ebnien e numrit t\u00eb lindjeve.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Popullsia, n\u00eb presion t\u00eb dyfisht\u00eb<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Zhvillimet demografike po b\u00ebhen t\u00eb vrullshme koh\u00ebt e fundit si rezultat i nj\u00eb presioni t\u00eb dyfisht\u00eb, emigrimit dhe r\u00ebnies s\u00eb lindjeve me ritme dyshifrore. P\u00ebrgjith\u00ebsisht, numri vjetor i lindjeve n\u00eb Shqip\u00ebri luhatet n\u00eb 32-24 mij\u00eb bebe n\u00eb vit. Vitin e kaluar lind\u00ebn pak m\u00eb shum\u00eb se 30 mij\u00eb bebe, teksa gjat\u00eb 9 muajve t\u00eb 2018 lind\u00ebn vet\u00ebm 18,120 bebe. Sipas skenarit pesimist t\u00eb projeksioneve t\u00eb popullsis\u00eb t\u00eb INSTAT, numri i bebeve t\u00eb lindura n\u00eb vitin 2018 duhet t\u00eb jet\u00eb pak m\u00eb shum\u00eb se 27 mij\u00eb foshnja. Q\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrmbushet projeksioni i skenarit pesimist duhet t\u00eb lindin t\u00eb pakt\u00ebn edhe 9 mij\u00eb foshnja n\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00eb vendin n\u00eb tremujorin e mbetur.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vlora ishte qarku me r\u00ebnien m\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb t\u00eb lindjeve, me rreth 36%, e ndjekur nga Gjirokastra me mbi 35%. R\u00ebnia e lindshm\u00ebris\u00eb n\u00eb Vlor\u00eb po ndikohet edhe nga emigracioni i lart\u00eb. R\u00ebnia e lindjeve ka prekur edhe Qarkun e Tiran\u00ebs, e cila p\u00ebrgjith\u00ebsisht po sheh rritje t\u00eb popullsis\u00eb n\u00eb raport me qarqet e tjera. Nj\u00eb anketim i fundit i Qendr\u00ebs p\u00ebr K\u00ebrkime Sociale dhe Ekonomike, p\u00ebr potencialet e emigrimit, gjeti se, d\u00ebshira p\u00ebr t\u00eb ikur \u00ebsht\u00eb e madhe p\u00ebr qytetar\u00ebt e Vlor\u00ebs, ku 66.7% e tyre i kan\u00eb th\u00ebn\u00eb po emigracionit, t\u00eb ndjekur nga elbasanllinjt\u00eb, ku mbi 57% e tyre duan t\u00eb emigrojn\u00eb.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sociologu M\u00ebrtiri thot\u00eb se r\u00ebnia e numrit t\u00eb lindjeve \u00ebsht\u00eb fenomen i pranish\u00ebm kudo n\u00eb vendet e modernizuara. Kjo ka t\u00eb b\u00ebj\u00eb me shum\u00eb arsye, por kryesisht lidhet me stilin e jetes\u00ebs. Disa studiues pohojn\u00eb se shoq\u00ebrit\u00eb moderne jan\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb s\u00eb tep\u00ebrmi individualiste dhe madje edhe hedoniste, gj\u00eb q\u00eb ul predispozit\u00ebn p\u00ebr t\u00eb rritur f\u00ebmij\u00eb, t\u00eb cil\u00ebt k\u00ebrkojn\u00eb p\u00ebrkushtim dhe sakrifica. Numri i madh i f\u00ebmij\u00ebve t\u00eb kusht\u00ebzon n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00ebn e jetes\u00ebs, karrier\u00ebn, mjetet financiare apo edhe koh\u00ebn t\u00eb cil\u00ebn ua kushton interesave individuale. P\u00ebr rrjedhoj\u00eb, shum\u00eb njer\u00ebz priren t\u00eb sakrifikojn\u00eb lindjen e f\u00ebmij\u00ebve p\u00ebrball\u00eb interesave t\u00eb tjera, thot\u00eb M\u00ebrtiri.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nga ana tjet\u00ebr, shtimi i madh i familjeve me nj\u00eb person, numri i madh i divorceve, si dhe nd\u00ebrprerja e lidhjeve midis njer\u00ebzve i pak\u00ebson mund\u00ebsit\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb pasur f\u00ebmij\u00eb. Kjo shtohet edhe nga vet\u00eb dob\u00ebsimi i familjes dhe pasiguria q\u00eb kjo prodhon, gj\u00eb q\u00eb reflektohet doemos edhe te hezitimi p\u00ebr t\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb f\u00ebmij\u00eb, shpjegon sociologu. R\u00ebnia e numrit t\u00eb lindjeve, e shoq\u00ebruar me emigracionin e lart\u00eb, e ka shtuar presionin mbi popullsin\u00eb, duke e pak\u00ebsuar dhe duke e plakur m\u00eb shpejt se pritshm\u00ebrit\u00eb.<\/span><\/p>\n

Profesor Barjaba sugjeron q\u00eb Shqip\u00ebria duhet t\u00eb fokusoj\u00eb politikat e saj te nxitja e lindshm\u00ebris\u00eb, pasi emigracioni do t\u00eb vijoj\u00eb p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb diferencave n\u00eb nivelin e mir\u00ebqenies nd\u00ebrmjet vendit ton\u00eb dhe Europ\u00ebs. Profesor\u00ebt Ilir G\u00ebdeshi dhe Russell King, n\u00ebp\u00ebrmjet Qendr\u00ebs p\u00ebr K\u00ebrkime Sociale dhe Ekonomike, me k\u00ebrkimit e tyre mbi emigracionin nd\u00ebr vite, kan\u00eb gjetur s\u00eb fundi trende t\u00eb reja t\u00eb fenomenit dhe shkaqeve t\u00eb flukseve t\u00eb larta t\u00eb emigracionit. N\u00eb nj\u00eb k\u00ebrkim mbi emigrimin potencial, anketa zbuloi se, 52% e popullsis\u00eb shqiptare t\u00eb grupmosh\u00ebs 18 \u2013 40 vje\u00e7, d\u00ebshirojn\u00eb t\u00eb migrojn\u00eb nga Shqip\u00ebria, n\u00eb krahasim me anket\u00ebn e vitit 2007, ku 44.2% e k\u00ebsaj grupmoshe donte t\u00eb emigronte.<\/span><\/p>\n

D\u00ebshira p\u00ebr t\u00eb migruar n\u00eb k\u00ebto p\u00ebrmasa lidhet me p\u00ebrfytyrimin q\u00eb kan\u00eb njer\u00ebzit p\u00ebr t\u00eb ardhmen e tyre dhe t\u00eb f\u00ebmij\u00ebve. Nga nj\u00ebra an\u00eb, ai \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb reflektim i gjendjes reale ekonomike, sociale e politike n\u00eb vendin e origjin\u00ebs, nga ana tjet\u00ebr, i mund\u00ebsive potenciale n\u00eb vendin prit\u00ebs. Vrojtimi tregoi se, rreth 50% e familjeve me t\u00eb ardhura nga 1000-1470 euro duan t\u00eb largohen. Por gjithashtu u pa se 70% e emigrant\u00ebve t\u00eb rikthyer duan t\u00eb largohen.<\/span><\/p>\n

VINI RE:<\/span> Ky artikull \u00ebsht\u00eb pron\u00eb intelektuale e Monitor.al<\/a><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\" \"\" \"\" \"\" \"\" \"\"<\/p>\n","protected":false,"gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"rendered","format":"html"}]},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sociolog\u00ebt dhe demograf\u00ebt pohojn\u00eb se ka ardhur koha q\u00eb tranzicioni demografik (r\u00ebnia e madhe e lindjeve dhe emigracioni i lart\u00eb) t\u00eb trajtohet me p\u00ebrpar\u00ebsi, pasi n\u00eb faz\u00ebn n\u00eb t\u00eb cil\u00ebn ndodhen diktojn\u00eb t\u00eb gjitha zhvillimet politike dhe ekonomike n\u00eb vend. Si po ndikohet ekonomia dhe perspektiva e saj Potencialet e larta q\u00eb ka Shqip\u00ebria p\u00ebr […]<\/p>\n","protected":false,"gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"rendered","format":"html"}]},"author":30,"featured_media":245828,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[65],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-258721","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-lajme"],"gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"link","format":"url"}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/258721","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/30"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=258721"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/258721\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/245828"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=258721"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=258721"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hashtag.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=258721"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}