Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held a phone call with US President Donald Trump on Sunday evening, which lasted more than half an hour and ended shortly before the start of a limited security cabinet meeting. Trump briefed Netanyahu on the results of his visit to China and the two discussed Iran.
An Israeli official said the issue of a possible attack on Iran remains unresolved, adding that Trump still needs to make a decision and “be at peace with himself.” If he decides to resume fighting, the official said, Israel would likely be asked to participate.
Against this backdrop, the dramatic assassination of Hamas military chief Izz al-Din al-Haddad in Gaza on Friday could be seen as the first sign of a possible return to fighting in the Strip. With political guidance, the IDF is preparing for a renewed high-intensity campaign against terrorist organizations in Gaza and is updating its operational plans.
But that doesn't mean the fighting will resume tomorrow morning. Much depends on developments regarding Iran. Trump doesn't want distractions. If he can pressure the Iranians into a deal, he could give Israel the green light to act against Hamas — or something else could happen: Hamas could soften its stance and accept voluntary disarmament. For now, that's not happening.
An Israeli official familiar with the details said Trump is not giving Israel a free hand in Gaza, but is allowing action against specific threats.
“Trump is not giving us a free hand in Gaza, but he is giving the green light to act against ‘ticking time bombs,’ like the commander of the Radwan Force in Beirut and the head of Hamas’ military wing in Gaza,” the official said. “Surgical and targeted operations, yes. High-intensity warfare, less so.”
Israeli officials estimate that the US president will not allow the fighting in Gaza to resume until a decision is made on the Iranian issue. They also believe that a decisive result against Iran could cause Hamas to soften its stance. If Tehran is hit hard, Hamas may get the message. But if not, Trump could give Israel permission to “finish the job.”
In any case, Israeli assessments regarding the Iranian front point to a possibility of resumption of fighting.
On the northern front, negotiations between Israel and Lebanon are advancing, but the situation resembles the dynamic with Hamas: there is no real possibility of disarming Hezbollah through an agreement. The Lebanese cannot and do not want to do so. This front too depends on developments in Iran.
If the Islamic Republic suffers a severe blow and Hezbollah loses its main source of funding, the Shiite terrorist organization could grasp the situation and reach tacit understandings with the Lebanese government for disarmament and integration into the army and police.
For now, however, despite the heavy blows they have suffered, the Iranians continue to channel money to Hezbollah. According to an Israeli official, negotiations with Lebanon are progressing in terms of framework, but not in substance, writes Ynet.
